Nhiên liệu cho suy nghĩ: Điện khí hóa và khử cacbon trong ô tô - Chuyển bánh răng về phía Net-Zero

Bản tin hàng tháng về ô tô và Podcast
This month’s theme: Automotive Electrification and Decarbonization
– Shifting gears towards Net-Zero

NGHE PODCAST NÀY

Globally, a growing number of countries have pledged to achieve
net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The European Commission
(EC) proposed the first European Climate Law in March 2020, as part
of the European Green Deal, to ensure the goal of net-zero carbon
emissions by 2050 to be written into law and set a tightened target
of 55% CO₂ reduction from 1990 levels by 2030. Mainland
China, currently the world’s highest CO₂ phát
country, also pledged to achieve a carbon peak by 2025-2030, then a
20% reduction from the peak by 2035, and eventually carbon
neutrality by 2060. The United States (US) rejoined the Paris
Agreement in February 2021, committing to achieve net-zero by 2050
and an interim CO₂ reduction target of 50-52% by 2030
from 2005 levels in the Biden administration’s climate plan.

Giao thông vận tải là một nguồn CO chính₂ khí thải,
accounting for more than 21% of total annual CO₂ phát ra
globally, nearly 30% in the European Union (EU) and the US. The
road transport sector contributes around 70-80% to transport
CO₂ emissions. Under the current policies, major markets
like the EU, mainland China, and the US will face challenges to
meet the pledge toward net-zero. The “Fit for 55” climate package
initiatives proposed by the EC on July 14, 2021 include
strengthened 2030 for cars and vans CO₂ cùng với người khác
measures like inclusion of transport sector in the Emissions
Trading System (ETS) to further incentivize decarbonization. In the
US, there is a move to revise current fuel economy and GHG
standards, with a proposal expected by the end of July 2021.

Electrification is the most promising pathway to decarbonize the
road transport sector. Phasing out internal combustion engines
(ICEs) by the mid-2030s has been a trend in both regional policies
and vehicle manufacturers’ strategies. In EU The “Fit for 55”
package proposes passenger car 2030 CO₂ targets to be a
55% reduction from 2021 level, as compared with 37.5% reduction
requirement in the earlier rule. Also proposed is 100% car
CO₂ reduction in 2035 from 2021 levels, which results in
all new light vehicles registered in 2035 to be zero-emission. To
meet the 55% 2030 reduction target, a further uplift of BEVs to
reach more than 55% market share plus nearly 10% of hybrid plug-in
electric vehicles (PHEVs) will be required in EU. This increased
electric vehicle market will drive 36% additional battery capacity
demand, leading the battery production to be 468 GWh in 2030 to
meet the revised CO₂ target. At the same time, with the
proposed battery regulation, battery carbon footprint reduction and
end-of-life handling (e.g., recycling efficiencies) will be key in
transport decarbonization in the era of road transport
điện khí hóa.

The further increase in the electrification trend will also
reduce the battery cost significantly allowing cost parity with
gasoline start-stop fitted vehicles during the 2026-28 timeframe.
Market-average battery pack cost is forecasted to drop around 40%
from the current levels to 94USD/kWh by 2030, according to IHS
Markit. In recent years, the automotive industry has already
witnessed about 20USD billion of funds raised through Green Bonds,
of which 75% is issued by car manufacturers and the remaining by
battery suppliers. Sustainable financial instruments such as Green
Bonds are also projected to fund further investments in
transportation decarbonization, said Monika Punshi, Senior Cost and
Investment Research analyst at IHS Markit. Approximately 60% of
this money will be allocated towards the development of
battery-electric, fuel cell, and other electrification components
such as e-motors and hydrogen tanks. Recent revisions of the
European Green Bond standards (EUGBS) framework announced by the
European Commission on July 6, 2021 will also ensure robustness and
transparency on these investments’ utilization on sustainable
projects toward net-zero ambitions.

Well-designed economy-wide LCA guidelines are key to
promoting feasible and efficient CO₂ reductions under
Europe’s integrated ‘Fit for 55’ climate package

Decarbonization of the transportation sector will also require
integration with other regulatory mechanisms like Renewable Energy
Directive (RED), Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive (AFID),
the Battery Regulation as well as carbon cap-and-trade within the
Emissions Trading System (ETS) to deliver co-jointly. The proposed
AFID requires each member state to install charging and refuelling
stations at regular intervals on major highways — every 60 km for
electric charging and every 150 km or hydrogen refuelling. The EC
expects to deliver approximately 3.5 million recharging points by
2030. AFID also requires member states to enhance charging capacity
and have a total power output of at least 1 kW and 0.66 kW
respectively for each battery-electric light-duty vehicle and
plug-in hybrid light-duty vehicle registered in their territory
provided through publicly accessible recharging stations.

As the road transport sector moves gradually to electrification,
the focus of regulations will be moving from tailpipe to upstream
fuel and electricity supplies. The revision of RED II increases the
overall renewable energy share target to 40% by 2030, raised from
32% in the earlier regulation. An energy efficiency directive (EED)
proposes 36% energy efficiency target, i.e., energy savings from
2007 projections, a boost from 32.5% set previously. RED II
requires member states to achieve the target of 14% renewable
energy share in the transportation sector. Each member state should
ensure a GHG intensity reduction of at least 13% by 2030 using
renewable fuels and renewable electricity supplied to the
transportation sector.

For the first time, road transportation has been added to the
Emissions Trading System (ETS). The trading coverage start year
will be 2026. A separate carbon trading market will be created for
road transportation, and a carbon price will be put on it. The
carbon cap-and-trade mechanism will simultaneously regulate fleet
emissions under the cap and incentivize behavioral changes which
maximize decarbonization beyond mere compliance. A new Carbon
Border Adjustment Mechanism is also in the released package,
putting a carbon price on imports of a targeted selection of
products to ensure EU’s contribution to global decarbonization
instead of generating “carbon leakage”.

The Battery Regulation proposed in December 2020 requires the
carbon footprint to be reported from 2024 and complied from 2027.
In 2030, the battery collection rate target is 70%. Recycle content
requirements are 4% for lithium and nickel, 12% for cobalt, and 85%
for lead by 2030. In the meantime, recycling efficiencies of 70%
for lithium-based batteries and 80% for lead-acid batteries, along
with material recycling efficiencies of 70% lithium and 95% cobalt,
copper, lead, and nickel are expected. These elements, when Life
Cycle Assessment becomes the accounting methodology, will impact
the carbon intensity of a vehicle’s value chain.

On July 6, 2021, the EC also announced the European Green Bond
standards (EUGBS) proposal. Sustainable financial instruments such
as Green Bonds are projected to fund further investments in
transportation decarbonization. Approximately 60% of this money
will be towards the development of battery electric vehicles, fuel
cell vehicles, and other electrification components such as
e-motors and hydrogen tanks. The EUGBS provides a voluntary
framework to guarantee robustness and transparency on the
investment’s utilization on sustainable projects toward net-zero
những tham vọng.

Lặn sâu hơn

Net Zero and BEV Battery Costs:
Download our latest electrification, powertrain & compliance
trang trắng

Whitepaper: The ICE-age: A dinosaur
on the road to perdition

Free access to the IHS Markit
Climate & Sustainability Hub

Have a question on CAFE/CO2
Compliance? Ask our Expert

Electrification: The road to carbon
neutrality – an electrifying future?

Solutions for Powertrain,
Electrification & Compliance – Learn more

Đăng ký Nhiên liệu hàng tháng của chúng tôi cho
Bản tin & podcast nghĩ rằng luôn được kết nối với những thông tin mới nhất
cái nhìn sâu sắc về ô tô

Đăng ngày 21 tháng 2021 năm XNUMX bởi Vijay Subramanian, Giám đốc, Tuân thủ CO2 toàn cầu, Dự báo chi phí và hệ thống truyền động, Ô tô, IHS Markit

Nguồn: http://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/fuel-for-thought-automotive-electrification-and-decarbonization.html