Velika revizija globalne napovedi za lahka vozila, proizvodnja je vplivala tudi v 2022

The IHS Markit light vehicle production forecast has been cut by
6.2% or 5.02M units in 2021, and by 9.3% or 8.45M units in 2022, to
stand at 75.8M units and 82.6M units, respectively. For 2023 we
have reduced the forecast by 1.05M units or 1.1% to 92.0M units;
this is a front-loaded adjustment and from the second quarter we
expect output levels will be able to accelerate as supply chains
return to normal. If this is the case then strong pent-up demand
and the pressure to rebuild stock levels is expected to support
elevated levels of production in 2024 and 2025, with 2024 now
forecast to hit 97.3M units, up 3.2% compared to the previous
forecast and 2025 forecast at 98.9M units an increase of 2.4%.

This is the largest single adjustment to the outlook in
what has been a turbulent past nine months.

We estimate that 1.44 million units of production were lost in
Q1 and a further 2.60 million units in Q2; currently Q3 losses are
running at 3.1 million units and rising. The outlook for Q4 now
reflects heightened risk as challenges to the supply chain –
primarily semiconductors – remain entrenched. Recently Toyota
communicated that it will be reducing build targets in October,
following the announcement of a 40% cut to the September plan and
this is symptomatic of the ongoing volatility in the sector and the
continued lack of visibility beyond the very short term.

Why are we making such a sizeable
downgrade?

In the first half of the year the primary cause of disruption
was the shortage of front-end wafer fabrication for
microcontrollers (MCU). This was the particular supply chain that
was dented by the ice storm in Texas and the fire at the Renesas
Naka 3 facility in Japan.

In addition to these events that compounded difficulties in an
already constrained supply chain, we began to recognize an issue
emerging in early June, which was affecting what are described as
back-end processes (packaging and testing) within the semiconductor
sector. The back-end issue is focused on operations located in
Malaysia and is in direct response to the government’s rolling
program of lockdown measures. First scheduled to expire by the end
of June, the measures were extended through the middle of August
and the return to full operational capacity is now not expected
until late October.

It is this back-end disruption that we see as most influential
to what we now expect in the remainder of 2021. The
two-and-a-half-month backlog that has built up since June will take
time to clear and is anticipated to extend well into 2022. So, our
interpretation of the situation in Malaysia, which is responsible
for 13% of the global supply of semiconductors for the automotive
industry, has become more pessimistic. In addition to the extended
cycle of lockdowns, which in turn have reduced the possibility of
any improvement in this calendar year, the back-end situation has
also impacted a wider range of semiconductor applications beyond
just MCUs.

If the first half of the year was defined by front end issues
disrupting automotive MCUs, then the second half of the year and
the coming months is increasingly defined by back-end issues
affecting all semiconductor applications and not just automotive.
This wider disruption beyond automotive is contributing to the
reduced expectations for both 2021 and 2022, signalling that even
without further external shocks, levels of capacity dedicated to
automotive will remain below those required to meet ongoing demand
and well below what would be required to allow stock levels to be
rebuilt. Ongoing imbalances between supply and demand of
semiconductors are now expected.

Vir: http://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/major-revision-for-global-light-vehicle-production-forecast.html