Future battery technology and vehicle thermal management
may help narrow the shortfall with ‘certified’ distances and lessen
range anxiety
A Tesla Model 3 Performance AWD has a maximum battery range of
372 miles. But the same vehicle, under the same conditions, also
has a maximum battery range of 310 miles.
Which one is right? Both, and neither, when real-world
conditions and battery thermal management are taken into account.
This lack of consistency in calculating battery range as marketed
to the buying public – in this case between the European NEDC and
US EPA standards and protocols – can lead to consumer confusion in
the journey to mass adoption of electric vehicles. After all, 62
miles is a lot of variances when you are unsure of your next
charging location.
This variation is just as annoying as (and not dissimilar to)
the difference between quoted and real-world fuel economy. But you
can find a fully functioning gas station pretty much anywhere. So
long as the nascent EV charging network leaves potential customers
leery of their car running out of juice with nowhere to recharge,
range anxiety will remain a barrier to EV sales growth.
According to the most recent S&P Global Mobility Consumer
Insights Surveys, while 8 in 10 people in 2021 expressed interest
in purchasing an EV, only 6 in 10 people indicated the same desire
in 2022. The main reason for this backtracking is the lack of
charging stations as well as the long charging time for EVs - both
of which are tangential emotions to range anxiety. And while more
than two-thirds of respondents considered an EV driving range of
150 to 350 miles as acceptable, many respondents expressed driving
range concerns.
Though some industry leaders say charging time has replaced
range anxiety as the key trust barrier, extreme climate conditions
may bring specific range concerns back into play. Differences in
vehicles’ thermal management systems, which are responsible for
regulating both battery and internal cabin temperatures, can cause
significant deviations between EVs’ rated range and actual
real-world range. The BMW i3, for instance, can lose up to 50% of
its available driving range in extremely cold conditions.
Efforts to reconcile the difference between a BEV’s rated range
and its actual driving range under real-world conditions are
proving to be a challenge. The rated or manufacturer-advertised
driving range for EVs is typically determined by conducting tests
over a predetermined route, using a specific set of parameters and
conditions. Since certain countries apply different driving
standards or cycles during testing, this can lead to the same
vehicle having different driving range results across different
regions.
When compared against Europe’s Worldwide Harmonized Light
Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) or China’s Chinese Local Test Cycles
(CLTC), the US EPA combined driving cycle further applies a
correction factor to all published figures, resulting in lower
range values than theoretically possible. Case in point – the
aforementioned Tesla Model 3 has a reported 20 percent variance in
available range depending on regional requirements.
Other factors such as a higher vehicle body weight or larger
frontal area, which contribute to air resistance and drag, can also
lower the rated range – particularly in constant-speed highway
driving tests. Overall, statistical analysis showed that weight,
motor power, and battery capacity had the most significant impact
on BEV’s actual driving range. And because consumers have expressed
a preference during the past two decades for SUVs – which are
inherently bigger, heavier, and less aerodynamic than a slippery
sedan – this exacerbates the engineering challenge.
In addition to these vehicle parameters, driving profiles –
patterns that govern how a vehicle is operated in terms of speed,
acceleration, braking, and other driving behavior – unique to each
region can also affect the efficiency and overall energy
consumption of the vehicle. This complexity has made comparing the
driving range of vehicles approved in different regions extremely
difficult.
To allow for better model-to-model comparisons across regions,
S&P Global Mobility has standardized driving ranges according
to the WLTP, which offers a more realistic measurement of the range
and efficiency of a vehicle in real-world driving conditions. The
analysis of more than 900 BEVs sold between 2017 and 2022 shows
that battery capacity is positively correlated with driving range,
particularly in smaller-segment vehicles.
As newer EV models will have higher battery energy density –
driven by design optimization and removing redundant battery
furniture through concepts such as cell-to-pack – driving ranges
are expected to increase in parallel. S&P Global Mobility
forecasts that the average quoted battery capacity of BEVs produced
will rise from 60kWh in 2022 to 79kWh in 2030, driven by such
improvements.
Consequently, innovations in battery technology represent the
most effective way to increase the BEV driving range. Using solid
batteries with lithium metal or silicon anodes, optimizing battery
pack energy density, or cell-to-pack or cell-to-structure
technologies all look promising to achieve extended range.
On the flip side, equal care must be given to thermal management
systems that regulate temperature and battery conditioning. Ambient
temperature affects both the driving range of electric vehicles and
battery performance. Since EV batteries operate within a narrow
optimum range, temperatures below or above can reduce their
performance significantly or even cause safety concerns.
S&P Global Mobility has performed modeling work to
objectively quantify EV range in simulated conditions more
accurately reflecting real-world conditions, as well as under three
different climatic profiles mimicking temperate, continental, and
hot desert climates.
To achieve proper battery conditioning, manufacturers are
increasingly using coolants to cool down and warm up the battery.
Managing temperature within the cabin of the vehicle in cold
climates is also important for both range and occupant comfort.
Using heat pumps could save energy and increase driving range, but
they become less effective than current electric heaters at
significantly lower temperatures.
While other energy-saving options exist – including software
controls to provide personalized temperature, radiated surfaces, or
heated steering wheels – they only make purchasing an EV more
expensive.
Addressing real-life driving range concerns will continue to
demand advancements in battery technology and thermal management
systems from automakers and suppliers. Those who can balance cost,
comfort, and efficiency while accounting for regional test
standards and driving patterns will be more effective in mitigating
range anxiety and increasing EV adoption.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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- Source: http://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/improving-realworld-driving-range-is-crucial-to-mainstream-ev-.html
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