AUD/USD Forecast: Markets Reflect on Powell’s Cautious Remarks

• Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated.

• There is a 60% likelihood of a Fed rate cut by March.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35%.

Monday’s AUD/USD forecast has a subtle bearish tone as the dollar tries to recover after declining due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Friday, Powell affirmed that US monetary policy was slowing the economy as anticipated, with the benchmark overnight interest rate residing “well into restrictive territory.” Consequently, markets adjusted, indicating a 60% likelihood of a rate cut by the March meeting, up from 21% just over a week ago.

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Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, highlighted that US data remains the “primary driver” for the G10 currencies. Moreover, non-farm payrolls are the “most important risk event” for the week. The eagerly anticipated November jobs report is scheduled for release on Friday. According to Rodda, the performance of dollar pairs may receive ongoing support based on US economic data.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably maintain its key interest rate at 4.35% tomorrow. Furthermore, a Reuters poll suggests a shift in expectations for a rate cut. Currently, markets do not expect rate cuts until the fourth quarter of the next year due to a robust housing market.

Rates in Australia are at a 12-year high. Still, Australian home prices have rebounded from 2022 losses since hitting a low point in January. Moreover, projections indicate an 8% price increase this year and an additional 5% next year.

AUD/USD key events today

Investors do not expect high-impact news releases from Australia or the US today. Consequently, it might be a silent session for the pair.

AUD/USD technical forecast: Potential pullback as uptrend shows fatigue

Aussie has made a new high on the charts after bouncing off the 30-SMA and the 0.6600 support level. Moreover, the price is above the SMA, and the RSI is above 50, supporting the bullish bias. However, despite the new high, bullish momentum is fading. A closer look at the RSI shows a bearish divergence, a sign that bulls are exhausted. 

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Exhaustion could lead to a pullback or reversal in the trend. Already, price action at the most recent high shows bulls weakening and bears gaining strength. The price has made a doji candle and a bearish engulfing candle, indicating an imminent decline.

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• Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/aud-usd-forecast-markets-reflect-on-powells-cautious-remarks/