Viikoittainen markkinanäkymä (29.-02. helmikuuta) | Forexlive

TULEVAT TAPAHTUMAT:

• tiistai: Japani
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Luottamusta.
• Keskiviikko: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• torstai: Kiina
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Perjantai:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

tiistai

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the viime
raportti yllättynyt huonoista puolista sekä
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. Se tulee olemaan
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

Yhdysvaltain kuluttajien luottamus on ollut
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
hyppäsi yllättäen joulukuussa tasolle, joka on viime heinäkuusta lähtien. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see työmarkkinoilla.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in joulukuu.

Keskiviikko

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% aikaisempi,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
hyvin. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% aikaisempi.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where Fed
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

torstai

Euroalueen kuluttajahintaindeksin odotetaan olevan 2.8 %.
vs. 2.9 % aikaisempi,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Marketti
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
kesä. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the työvoima
markkinoida and wage growth but a surprisingly
kuuma CPI
raportti. Lisäksi, Vähittäiskaupan ja ravintola-alan konsultointi
Myynti saw a big plunge in December while
Ishayoiden opettaman PMI
parani tammikuussa. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

Yhdysvaltain työttömyyskorvaukset ovat edelleen yksi
tärkeimmistä julkaisuista joka viikko, koska se on ajantasaisempi indikaattori
työmarkkinoiden tilasta. Alkuperäiset korvaukset jatkuvat syklin ympärillä
alhaisimmillaan, kun taas jatkuvat korvaukset saavutettuaan uuden syklin huipun alkoivat kehittyä
alentaa. Tällä viikolla konsensus näkee alkuperäisten vaateiden olevan 210 214 vs. XNUMX XNUMX aikaisempi,
Vaikka jatkuvista väitteistä ei ole yksimielisyyttä, vaikka aikaisempi julkaisu nähtiin
lisäys 1833 1806:aan verrattuna XNUMX XNUMX aiempaan.

Yhdysvaltain ISM Manufacturing PMI on odotettavissa
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 aikaisempi.
Viime viikolla S & P:
Global Manufacturing PMI
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
2022. lokakuuta lähtien. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Perjantai

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in joulukuu
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
on 0.3 % vs. 0.4 % aiemmin. The last report had some notable underlying
heikkouksia with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Lähde: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/