Newsquawk 未来一周：FOMC、NFP、ISM Mfg PMI、英国央行、欧元区 CPI 和欧元区 GDP

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周日：新西兰贸易平衡
周一：日本失业率（12 月）
星期二：以色列市政选举；西班牙CPI初值（一月）、瑞士KOF（一月）、德国GDP初值（第四季度）、欧元区GDP初值（第四季度）、欧元区消费者信心指数终值（十二月）、美国房价（十一月）、JOLTS（十二月）、日本零售销售（十二月）
星期三： 澳大利亚 CPI、FOMC 和 BCB 政策公告，BoJ SOO（4 月）；中国国家统计局PMIS（4月）、德国消费者物价指数（CPI）初值（XNUMX月）、德国零售销售（XNUMX月）、进口价格（XNUMX月）、法国Prelim。 CPI（XNUMX 月）、德国失业率（XNUMX 月）、欧元区 GDP 预览数据。（第四季度）、美国 ADP（一月）和就业成本指数（第四季度）、芝加哥 PMI（一月）、意大利 Prelim。 PCI（一月）
周四： 中国财新制造业 PMI（1 月）、欧元区/英国/美国制造业 PMI 终值（1 月）、欧元区消费者物价指数预览（1 月）、英国央行公告、ISM 制造业 PMI（1 月）。
周五： 美国就业报告（一月）

注：预览按日期顺序列出

新西兰贸易平衡（周日）

目前对新西兰数据没有预期。在上个月的数据中，月度贸易逆差从 1.7 亿新西兰元收窄至 1.2 亿新西兰元，基本符合预期，而出口同比下降 5% 以上，至 5.99 亿新西兰元，进口同比收缩 15%，至7.23亿新西兰元。本月对华贸易额大幅萎缩，对华出口同比下降-9.7%，进口同比下降17%。西太平洋银行 (Westpac) 分析师认为，XNUMX 月份赤字可能会缩小，反映出出口季节性回升。

澳大利亚零售销售（周二）

December Retail Sales data is expected to print at -2.0% vs. +2.0% in November. November saw a stronger-than-expected 2% increase, contrasting with the choppy performance in September-October and a modest annual growth of 2.2%. The rise in November sales was partly attributed to changing seasonal trends, with more spending during ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber-week’ sales periods. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted a significant increase in November seasonality over the last decade. For December, a decline in retail sales is anticipated, estimated at 0.5%, as per Westpac Card Tracker data. This decline is attributed to uneven spending during the Christmas period and weak underlying momentum, despite consumers taking advantage of sales discounts.

澳大利亚消费者物价指数（周三）

The quarterly and monthly CPI data will be in focus at the RBA. The monthly CPI Indicator, though not a precise monthly measure of CPI (as it aggregates various price survey data throughout the quarter), is vital for updating desks’ quarterly CPI forecasts. Markets expect the Y/Y metric at 3.7% whilst Westpac predicts a 3.0% rise. Q4 CPI meanwhile is anticipated to show a quarterly increase of 0.8% (prev. 1.2%) and an annual rise of 4.3% (prev. 5.4%) – slightly under the RBA’s 4.5% projection. The Trimmed Mean, or “core”, is seen at 0.9% for the quarter and 4.4% annually, marginally beneath the RBA’s 4.5% forecast. Westpac said “Our forecast for inflation is consistent with our current view that the RBA will remain on hold at the February meeting and that the RBA will be reducing the cash rate at the September meeting later this year.”

UST季度退款公告（周三）

Bank of America thinks the Treasury will deliver a repeat of the increase in auction sizes that it announced in November, where the Treasury suggested that a final increase would be needed for issuance to align with financing needs. “This would mark the third consecutive quarterly increase in coupon supply since the August refunding,” BofA writes, “we see room for Treasury to continue growing coupon supply in 2025-2026, but expect it to hold off on further adjustments this year given uncertainty around QT and deficits.” BofA also argues that the Treasury might prefer to delay further coupon increases given the perception of market sensitivity to supply announcements, and a desire to refrain from tightening financial conditions in an election year. In terms of the details, BofA says that while it is not the base case, there is potential for Treasury to deliver larger back-end supply next week than in November given that it delivered a lower increase at the 10yr and 30yr points vs its expectations and what the TBAC had recommended, a decision BofA thinks was driven by concern about the demand backdrop and sharp increase in term premium from August to October.

FOMC 公告（周三）

The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at its January meeting, according to all economists surveyed by Reuters. The central bank is expected to begin cutting rates in Q2 in response to cooling inflation, according to 86 of 123 surveyed (55 thought June was more likely, while 31 see a reduction in May). Additionally, the Reuters poll reveals that most economists (72 of the 123) believe the Fed will cut rates by 100bps or fewer this year – that compares to money market pricing, which currently sees five 25bps rate cuts fully priced, with a good chance of a sixth; the Fed’s own forecasts see three 25bps rate cuts this year. “We still expect the Committee to maintain a cautious stance in the near-term even amid an increasingly improving profile for consumer prices, as the Fed would like to ascertain that the recent progress in inflation is sustainable,” TD Securities said.

BCB公告（周三）

The BCB is expected to fire its fifth rate cut of the current easing cycle, reducing rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Analysts continue to see further rate reductions this year, with the weekly central bank poll of private economists seeing the Selic falling to 9.00% this year, before easing a little further to 8.50% in 2025. However, Capital Economics suggests that “with inflation set to remain above target, fiscal risks likely to flare up again and the labour market only loosening gradually, we think interest rates will be lowered more cautiously than most currently expect (it sees the end-2024 Selic rate at 9.50%).”

中国国家统计局PMI（周三）/财新制造业PMI（周四）

人们将密切关注中国 PMI 数据，以衡量中国经济复苏的健康程度，尽管目前尚不清楚调查期间是否会包含中国人民银行宣布的最新存款准备金率下调，释放了部分人民币 1 亿元的流动性。目前没有对这些指标的预测。 49.0 月，国家统计局和财新的制造业指标出现了偏差，官方 PMI 数据显示持续收缩（50.4），而财新全球报告则显示小幅增长（1），尽管众所周知后者的波动性高于财新指数。国家统计局指标。本月大部分时间，中国的情绪一直处于悲观状态，去年宣布的一系列措施在很大程度上被投资者忽视，尽管周三宣布的存款准备金率下调可能使投资者对中国的情绪脱离低点。摩根大通分析师预计，中国将在 2024 年上半年保持复苏势头，然后在 2 年下半年放缓至趋势增长。摩根大通表示，受益于全球大宗商品价格动态变化，通货紧缩将于 2024 年结束。然而，该部门表示，在生产政策支持与消费政策支持存在偏差的情况下，低通胀将持续存在。

欧元区 GDP 快报（周三）

预期欧元区 GDP 快报将显示第四季度环比收缩 0.1%，而第三季度收缩 4%，年化率同比持平于 0.1%，这也与第三季度的数据相符。在发布之前，天达分析师指出，欧元区一段时间以来一直在技术性衰退中徘徊，但并未真正达到里程碑；其分析师补充说，这是在俄罗斯-乌克兰战争引发的能源危机背景下发生的。然而，随着能源价格大幅回落，欧元区经济表现似乎不那么令人印象深刻。从区域角度来看，德国 3 年下半年的技术性衰退显然尤为突出。话虽如此，天达认为，“欧元区其他主要经济体似乎已经取得了更好的表现，避免了这个标签”，因此，这应该会导致更广泛的增长停滞（季度/季度 0%）对于即将发布的版本。从政策角度来看，一份软报告可能会提前市场对降息的定价。然而，鉴于第二天将发布消费者物价指数，此类押注可能会有些说服力。

EZ Flash CPI（周四）

预计总体 CPI 将从 3.1% 升至 2.9%，核心利率将从 3.2% 降至 3.4%。之前发布的数据显示，由于德国不利的能源基础影响，2.9 月份总体通胀率升至 2.4%（去年同期为 3.4%），而核心通胀率继续下降，3.6 月份超级核心通胀率从 90 降至 140%。 %。对于即将发布的数据，穆迪分析师指出，“能源领域的基本效应将维持读数的上行压力，但我们预计这些影响将被食品和核心商品价格下降所抵消。”该部门补充说，服务业通胀“也应该下降，尽管幅度不会太大”。从政策角度来看，疲软的解读可能会导致市场充分消化 XNUMX 月份降息的影响，目前预计降息的可能性约为 XNUMX%，到年底总共将宽松 XNUMX 个基点。然而，只有政策制定者不关闭四月份采取行动的大门，这样的定价才会维持下去。

英国央行公告（周四）

Analysts surveyed are unanimous in their view that the MPC will once again stand pat on rates, leaving the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The vote will likely be unanimous, with the three December dissenters (Greene, Haskell, Mann) likely to move to the “unchanged” camp after being wrongfooted by the November inflation report, which saw the all-important services print decline to 6.3% Y/Y from 6.6% – in stark contrast to the MPC’s projection of 6.9%. Since the prior meeting, the annualised rate of headline inflation unexpectedly advanced to 4.0% Y/Y from 3.9%, while the services print ticked higher to 6.4% Y/Y from 6.3%. However, expectations for the broader disinflationary trend to continue remain in place; ING bank is of the view that inflation will dip below 2% in April and sit around the 1.5% area in May/June. Elsewhere, GDP in November expanded 0.3% M/M (vs the 0.36% contraction the prior month). Survey data remains strong with the January composite PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.1 with the services print at 53.8 vs. prev. 53.4. In the labour market, the unemployment rate (subject to data quality concerns) holding steady at 4.2%, while headline earnings growth in the 3m/YY period to November fell to 6.5% from 7.2%. Softness has been observed in the consumer too, with monthly retail sales -3.2% in December (vs prev. 1.4%). Incremental commentary from the MPC has been minimal, cementing expectations of a hold in policy. Beyond the upcoming meeting, markets assign an approximately 80% chance of a June rate cut, with a total of 92bps of easing seen by year-end. Thirty-eight of the 70 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the first cut to come in Q2, with all but four seeing at least one cut before September. For the accompanying MPR, Oxford Economics expects that the MPC will “bring forward the timing of when it expects inflation to return to the 2% target to Q2 2024 from end-2025.” On growth, the consultancy says “the BoE will likely take a less downbeat view of the economy’s prospects compared to November, when it forecast that GDP would flatline this year and grow only 0.25% in 2025.”

ISM 制造业 PMI（周四）

As a comparison, S&P Global’s flash US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 47.9 in December, to a fresh 15-month high, which signals the first improvement in operating conditions at goods producers in nine months, S&P said, though added that the upturn was only fractional amid a further drop in production. The output index picked-up to 48.7 from 48.1, with manufacturing firms continuing to see a moderate drop in activity in the month. Challenging trucking conditions due to storms and transportation delays was reported to have weighed on vendor performance, with lead times rising for the first time in over a year. Still, S&P said it was an encouraging start to the year, with output across both goods and services rising in January at the fastest rate since last June, with growth momentum stepping up on the back of improved demand conditions. “New orders inflows have now picked up for three months, buoyed in particular by improving sales to domestic customers, helping lift business confidence about the year ahead to the most optimistic since May 2022,” S&P said, adding that “confidence has also been buoyed by hopes of lower inflation in 2024, easing the cost of living squeeze and facilitating the path to lower interest rates.” Prices rose in January at the slowest rate since the initial pandemic lockdowns of early 2020, the report said, with companies stating that selling price inflation was now below pre-pandemic averages, and consistent with CPI dropping below the Fed’s 2% target. “With the survey indicating that supply delays have intensified while labour markets remain tight, cost pressures will need to be monitored closely in the coming months,” S&P writes, “but for now the survey send a clear and welcome message of resilient economic growth and sharply waning inflation.”

瑞典央行预览（周四）

鉴于 4.00 月份指导利率将在 2024 年和 2025 年保持在这一水平，预计利率将维持在 50.0% 不变。这一决定的理由是通胀继续温和，同时国内经济放缓的迹象持续存在；不过，2024 月份服务业 PMI 回升至 4.00 大关。鉴于通胀数据，瑞典央行有可能修改其 5 年不降息的指导意见，尽管在本次会议上宣布这样的决定可能为时过早。尽管预计利率不变，但瑞典央行可能会选择宣布加快上次会议上标记的政府债券销售速度。提醒一下，XNUMX 月份，瑞典央行无视加息预期，将利率维持在 XNUMX%，并表示，如果通胀前景恶化，他们准备进一步提高政策利率。此外，在购买方面，他们表示正在考虑可能在 XNUMX 月份加快出售政府债券（目前为每月 XNUMX 亿瑞典克朗）。总体而言，该公告被视为中性持有。几分钟之内，最相关的因素是布莱曼将焦点从疲软的瑞典克朗转向通胀/活动。

JMMC 会议（周四）

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is poised to meet on February 1st as part of meetings held every two months to monitor the implementation of the OPEC pact. As a reminder, the JMMC will not implement any changes to policy but they can make a recommendations to the decision-making OPEC+ body. Note, Reuters sources earlier this month suggested a video conference will be held. The meeting also comes against the backdrop of volatile crude prices and as geopolitical tensions escalate. There have been no indications that the OPEC+ group is looking to take action in the near term. In terms of the most recent OPEC MOMR, the release inaugurated a 2025 demand growth forecast which was a downgrade from the current 2024 forecast (2.2mln BPD in 2024 vs 1.8mln BPD in 2025). Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco CEO at Davos suggested that 2024 oil demand growth was seen around 1.5mln BPD (vs 2.2mln BPD forecast in the MOMR). Supply metrics from Angola were also omitted from calculations following the country’s departure from the OPEC-13 in December. The latest Reuters sources stated the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during the meeting, but one source said the meeting would mainly discuss the group’s production levels and that there will be no recommendations at the JMMC. One source added that a decision on whether or not to extend a portion of the group’s voluntary oil output cuts into April would likely come at the end of February, although another source said the decision’s timing was not yet clear. Meanwhile, a Russian delegate stated there is no evidence that additional steps are needed.

美国就业报告（周五）

The consensus expects 162k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in January (range 140-285k), with the unemployment rate projected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, slightly cooler than the +0.4% registered in December, while average workweek hours are seen ticking higher to 34.4hrs from 34.3. Analysts also point out that the January jobs data will incorporate final benchmark revisions; Investec said that the prelim estimate suggested that the level of payrolls in March 2023 will be revised 306k lower, but argues that this tells us little about recent trends, and updated seasonal factors may have an impact. NOTE: Ahead of the January employment report, the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released on Tuesday; Moody’s said that the labour market came slowly into better balance throughout 2023, and it expects the JOLTS data to show job openings falling modestly from the 8.79mln printed in November. And on Wednesday, the Q4 employment cost data will be released, which analysts will look to to determine if the moderation in pay growth continued in the final quarter of the year; Moody’s looks for a slight deceleration from Q3’s 1.1% pace.

这篇文章最初出现在新闻快报.