每周市场展望（29 月 02 日至 XNUMX 月 XNUMX 日）|外汇直播

查看近期相关活动:

• 周二： 日本
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  置信度。
• 周三：日本央行
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• 周四：中国
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• 周五:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

周二

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the 最后
报告 surprised to the downside with 都
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels。 这将是
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

美国消费者信心指数
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
surprisingly jumped in December to levels last since in July. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see 劳动力市场.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in 十二月.

周三

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% 先,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
好. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% 先.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where 美联储
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

周四

欧元区CPI年率预计为2.8%
vs. 2.9% 先,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. 市场
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
夏季. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the 劳动
市场 and wage growth but a surprisingly
热态 CPI
report. Moreover, the 便利店
销售 saw a big plunge in December while
此 采购经理人
improved in January. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

美国初请失业金人数继续居高不下
每周最重要的版本，因为它是一个更及时的指标
劳动力市场状况。 首次申领失业金人数继续在周期内徘徊
低点，而持续索赔在达到新的周期高点后开始呈趋势
降低。本周初请失业金人数共识为 210 万，而 214 万 先,
尽管之前的发布看到了持续索赔的情况，但尚未达成共识
与之前的 1833K 相比，增加到 1806K。

美国ISM制造业PMI预期
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 先.
上周， 标准普尔
全球制造业采购经理人指数
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
自2022年XNUMX月起. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

周五

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in 十二月
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
预计为 0.3%，而之前为 0.4%。 The last report had some notable underlying
弱点 with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Sumber: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/