全球供应链的利用率仍然严重不足：GEP 全球供应链波动指数

全球供应链的利用率仍然严重不足：GEP 全球供应链波动指数

时间戳记：25年2023月11日晚上45:XNUMX
源节点： 2978586

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — the indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — decreased again in October to -0.41, from -0.35 in September, indicating a 7th successive month of rising spare capacity across the world’s supply chains.

Additionally, the extent to which supplier capacity went underutilised was even greater than in September and August. Coupled with October’s downturn in demand for raw materials, components and commodities, this shows rising slack in global supply chains.

“While the shrinking of global suppliers’ order books is not worsening, there are no signs of improvement,” explained Jamie Ogilvie-Smals, vice president, consulting, GEP. “The notable increase in supplier capacity in Asia, which was driven by China, provides global manufacturers with greater leverage to drive down prices and inventories in 2024.”

A key finding from October’s report was the strongest rise in excess capacity across Asian supply chains since June 2020. Sustained weakness in demand, coupled with falling pressures on factories in Asia, indicates that the global manufacturing recession has further to run. With the exception of India, which continues to perform strongly, large economies in the region, such as Japan and China, are losing momentum.

Suppliers in Europe continue to report the largest level of spare capacity. In fact, the lower levels in GEP’s supply chain index for the continent have only been seen during the global financial crisis between 2008 and 2009. They highlight sustained weakness in economic conditions across the continent. Western Europe, particularly Germany’s manufacturing industry, is a key driver behind the region’s deterioration.

相对亮点是北美，该地区的供应链产能过剩，但由于美国经济继续展现其韧性，其程度比其他地区要小得多，这与欧洲形成鲜明对比。

2023 年 XNUMX 月 主要发现

  • Demand: Demand for raw materials, components and commodities remains depressed, although the downturn seems to have stabilised. There are still no signs of conditions improving, however, as global purchasing activity fell again in October at a pace similar to what we’ve seen since around mid-year.
  • 库存：随着需求下降，我们的数据显示全球企业又进行了一个月的去库存，这表明了现金流保护的努力。
  • 物资短缺：物品短缺报告仍处于 2020 年 XNUMX 月以来的最低水平。
  • Labour shortages: Shortages of workers are not impacting global manufacturers’ capacity to produce, with reports of backlogs due to inadequate labour supply running at historically typical levels.
  • Transportation: Global transportation costs held steady with September’s level, although oil prices have declined in recent weeks.

区域供应链波动 

  • 北美：该指数从-0.34跌至-0.30。这仍然远低于全球平均水平，并继续暗示美国。经济有望软着陆。

  • 欧洲：该指数从-0.90升至-1.01，但仍保持在表明经济相当脆弱的水平。 
  • 英国：该指数从-0.93小幅上涨至-0.98。尽管如此，数据表明英国市场供应商的过剩产能大幅上升。 
  • Asia: Notably, the index dropped to -0.38, from -0.20, highlighting the biggest rise in spare supplier capacity in Asia since June 2020 as the region’s resilience fades.
     

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