为什么 ChatGPT 不会杀死程序员

In
ChatGPT 会杀死程序员吗？，我们检查了许多威胁到程序员工作的需求抑制因素。我们还提到了需求刺激剂，它通过增加对程序员的需求来起到平衡作用。

在这篇文章中，我们将深入探讨 需求兴奋剂.

需求刺激剂包括新的计算范式和市场，不仅可以阻止编码工作的减少，还可以增加编码员的数量。

新的计算范式

Anyone who has followed the IT industry for the last two decades or longer would have observed many waves of computing paradigms like Web, Mobile, Social, Cloud, and Blockchain alongside the growth of ERP, RAD, AI, and other demand suppressors described
在我们之前的帖子中.

每一次新的计算范式浪潮都对编码员产生了新的需求。

• Web：基于客户端-服务器架构的 ERP 的很大一部分必须进行扩展，以支持与供应商、客户和其他利益相关者之间基于互联网的交易。
• 移动：许多现有应用程序（例如 CRM）必须“移动”（如果您愿意，也可以“移动”）。
• 云：本地应用程序必须迁移到 AWS、Azure 和 Oracle 云基础设施等超大规模云。

Gen AI is the latest wave. By automating coding to some extent, it will suppress demand for coders. However, by requiring training of AI on industry- and enterprise-specific data – “last mile training” as Oracle calls it – Gen AI will also stimulate demand
for coders.

新市场

几十年来，我们看到软件产品公司和 SAAS 公司如雨后春笋般涌现，也看到了数字化转型和消费技术的浪潮。

他们为编码工作创造了新的市场，例如：

• COTS（商业现货）和 SAAS 公司的工程组织
• 工具（RAD/低代码）供应商包括开源软件和 WordPress 插件。
• Gen AI平台开发商
• 四大咨询公司的DX实践
• 金融科技、食品配送、拼车、共享房间、旅游和其他行业的消费互联网初创公司。
• Software Is The Brand companies. Coined by Forrester, the term SITB refers to the practice among banking, engineering and other non-software industries to differentiate themselves via software. Examples of SITB include Trade Finance and High Value Fund
  Transfer software in banks, and Internet of Things (IoT) in manufacturing automation companies.

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@马特图克： Whatever happened to the Internet of Things? 10 years ago, IoT was the next big thing. Tons of new startups, VC money and hype. Ended
up producing just *one* currently independent public company today, Samsara.

@s_ketharaman: It could be argued that IoT has been in use in chemical process plants etc. for 40+ years in the form of sensors, DCS, and PLCs.
At most, these products will need to be upgraded to ZigBee and other open Internet protocols to make them true IoT. But those opportunities will likely be tapped by Honeywell, Schneider and other existing process control equipment suppliers and may not create
opportunities for new startups.

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• 将人工智能注入非软件公司的产品中。例如 西门子工业副驾驶.

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微软和西门子推出了一款名为“西门子工业副驾驶”的制造助手，它将……协助维护人员进行维修。 – @superglaze。

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If recent history is any guide, I predict that Gen AI will create more coding jobs. At most, it might lead to a displacement of jobs from engineering to professional services organizations (PSO). (For the uninitiated, coders who develop the core product
on the roadmap of a COTS or SAAS company are in the engineering org, and coders who implement or support the product for a specific customer of such a company or its implementation partners are in the professional services org.)

That said, we must recognize one major difference between Generative AI and the demand suppressors that came before it: ERP, RAD / Low Code etc. obviated the need for code. They did not produce what coders produced. Whereas Gen AI does not obviate the need
for code. It produces what coders would otherwise have produced.

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@vkhosla: Fun story – at a recent coding hackathon, the winner was a marketer. Not a coder, but a marketer. Previously it was the best coder who
won, less dependent on idea and more on execution and ability to jerry rig a solution. Now it’s the best idea that wins since we’ve democratized what it means to program and barriers to entry are much lower (i.e. natural language!)

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从这个意义上来说，与过去的需求抑制者不同，Gen AI 确实对程序员、设计师和架构师具有直接的竞争姿态。

因此，可以说，上述讨论的新计算范式和市场驱动的对编码器的新需求也可以通过 ChatGPT 来满足。

根据我使用 ChatGPT 获取现成代码的个人经验，Gen AI 必然会减少对普通 HTML CSS 编码技能的需求。

转向复杂的网站和应用程序。让我们看下面的例子：

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Me： Uber 克隆代码？
ChatGPT: Creating a full Uber clone is a complex and extensive project that involves multiple components, including mobile apps for passengers and drivers, a backend server, payment processing, mapping and navigation integration, and more.
It’s a project that would typically require a team of developers and significant resources. I can provide you with a high-level overview of the components you would need and some sample code snippets to get you started, but keep in mind that building a full
Uber clone is beyond the scope of a simple code snippet…

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你可以看到完整的回复
此处。虽然 ChatGPT 确实提供了 Uber Clone 应用程序的许多构建块的代码片段，但从上面的摘录中可以清楚地看出，程序员仍然需要构建高级网站和应用程序。

程序员能做的就是使用 Gen AI 个人助理更快地编写质量更高的代码。在此方面，Gen AI 将补充（而不是取代）中级和高级编码员。在这方面，Gartner 为他们提供了一些专业建议：

• 人工智能辅助软件工程提高了开发人员的工作效率，并使开发团队能够满足对软件运行业务日益增长的需求。
• 注入人工智能的开发工具使软件工程师能够花更少的时间编写代码，从而更加关注更高级别的活动，例如引人注目的业务应用程序的设计和组合。

虽然我还没有机会使用它，但我听说了 Microsoft Github Copilot 编码助手的一些优点。

如果所有其他方法都失败了，请记住硅谷的一句古老格言：

一家运营良好的科技公司的人员编制是原来的两倍；一家经营不善的科技公司的人员编制是原来的 2 倍。

程序员不需要比这更多的工作保障保证！

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我可以听到程序员抱怨说，制作需求兴奋剂超出了他们的技能范围。

They’re right. Like before, product managers and marketers aka normies will create the new computing paradigms and markets sparking greater demand for coders in the age of Gen AI. However, they will need to be supported by coders, designers and architects
aka geeks in this endeavor.

尔格生成式人工智能为极客与普通人合作提供了独特的机会。

披露：Oracle 是前雇主。

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