US EPA نے ماڈل سال 2023-2026 کے لیے گرین ہاؤس گیس کے اخراج کے معیارات تجویز کیے ہیں۔ کیا توقع کریں

افلاطون کے ذریعہ دوبارہ شائع کیا گیا۔

فالونگ: 0

On 5 August 2021, the United States (US) Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) released a proposal to revise the current
greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) standards for model year (MY)
2023-2026 light vehicles, meant to replace the Safer Affordable
Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule currently in place, supporting
the Biden Administration’s ambitious climate plans.

The proposed rule represents both a significant increase in
stringency across all model years within the timeframe, as well as
an extension of credits and mechanisms that will allow easier
compliance for manufacturers that move towards increased
electrification of their fleets. IHS Markit predicts that the US
market will comply with the new MY 2026 target as a whole without
drastic adjustments to their current product plans, although the
specific compliance challenges vary from OEM to OEM.

For individual carmakers which might find themselves falling
short under MY 2026 target, the flexibilities of credit generation,
banking, transferring, and trading mechanisms will provide
significant leverage.

With the credit flexibilities offered by the proposal, together
with relaxed targets for MY 2021 and MY 2022 under SAFE, the market
will be well prepared to bank credits to be used for future years
when targets are increased. Under the SAFE rule, the market would
not only meet the fuel economy and GHG standards but would generate
significant amounts of regulatory credits especially after MY 2023.
The August 5 proposal from the EPA will significantly reduce the
banking availability, moving the market quickly from overcompliance
to credit deficits overall in MY 2023 and 2024. This ensures
carmakers have sufficient incentives on deployment of technology
innovation. The current proposal does not include details on MY
2027 and later vehicles but indicates credits will be phased out
from MY 2026 to focus on electric vehicle market penetration
شرحیں.

Under the proposed rule and the executive order, according to
IHS Markit analysis, the MY 2026 market will require at least 18%
BEV sales share for most car manufacturers to meet their goals
towards 2030. The new EPA proposed rule comes along with increasing
industry investment and its targets can be supported by government
policies and programs working towards reducing GHGs and while the
market moves towards increased electrification and ultimately zero
tailpipe carbon emissions. The alignment between the government
support and industry investment is a rare moment in the industry’s
history, and necessary to move forward with the complex issue of
transitioning the light-vehicle market from internal combustion
engines to electric and zero-emissions vehicles.

As noted earlier, IHS Markit forecasts suggest that goals will
be met in 2026. Beyond that, there remains work to do.

“Manufacturers, overall, are well positioned for the
increased standards announced at the White House. The goal of
electrifying vehicle fleets and moving towards an EV market has
been a high priority for several years, despite changes in Federal
standards. This commitment is evidenced by automakers pledging more
than $300 billion in electrification investments over the next five
years. However, manufacturers are also keenly aware of the risks
associated with a rapid transition to electrification with consumer
acceptance, vehicle range, and affordability among top concerns.
Only through cooperation and support between the auto industry and
government institutions will this ambitious transition be possible,
with both strengthened electrification policies and expanded
electric product availability as crucial components to
کامیابی."

–Mike Fiske, Associate Director, North America
Powertrain Forecasting, IHS Markit

For context on these developments, so far in 2021 (based on
available data through May), PHEVs accounted for just under 1% of
US new light vehicle registrations, while EVs reached 2.2% share
nationally and hybrid electric vehicles reached 5.8%, according to
IHS Markit data.

IHS Markit forecasts from June do not yet reflect the recent
pledges from OEMs or the proposed EPA rule in its market
assumptions. However, IHS Markit forecast assumptions have factored
in the direction of the August 5 EPA proposal and President Biden’s
executive order. Going forward, and as always, our forecasts will
adjust as new information is available.