[ASL12] Ro24 Predogled Pt.1 – Novi izzivalci!

Pred nami je nova sezona ASL in edino, kar lahko zagotovo rečemo, so negotovi časi, v tej sezoni ni izrazitih favoritov, medtem ko bodo nekateri morda rekli, da ni najbolj zvezdniška sezona, lahko bi tudi trdili, da to je čas, da nekdo nov zasije in si ustvari ime in to potovanje se začne prav tukaj, v 24. sezoni Ro12 the AfreecaTV Starcraft League

Ko so leta tekla, je bilo verjetno neizogibno, da se bodo nekatera največja imena StarCraft scene upokojila (ali, bolj pragmatično, šla na premor za nedoločen čas – iger ni mogoče preprosto nehati igrati). V zadnjih nekaj sezonah je prišlo do dotoka novejše krvi na premierno sceno – in sicer ASL –, ki jo je spodbudil izjemen uspeh Soma, vendar se z vsako zaporedno sezono bolj zdi, kot da bi bili izbranci bolj vitki kot talenti, ki si prebijajo pot do vrh. Kljub temu je veliko talentov, na katere je treba paziti, in dovolj stare garde je še zelo živih in živahnih, tako da je konkurenca še vedno močna.

Ta sezona se začne z že znano formulo dveh igralcev višjega razreda Soulkey in Ostro in dva nadobudneža, Ss1nz in nOOB.

Group A feels like something of a no-brainer – the kind that makes “safe” predictions actually scary, because you’d feel like an idiot if the big boys lose. Soulkey is a KSL champion and ASL elimination stage regular, with some of the best non-mirror matchups the scene has to offer, but as any Soulkey fan will tell you, cheering for him is a singularly frustrating occupation (remember when he lost 0-3 to Mind in the KSL season he subsequently won?). Sharp, for his part, is a KSL runner-up and was slightly below Light in the Terran food chain, but has since suffered a decline in form. Neither nOOB nor ss1nz have a fraction of the reputation these two have built up over the years, and yet there is a tiny voice in the back of my brain telling me I might screw up predicting Sharp’s group again.

Speaking of Sharp, there was a trend for the past year and a half or so in his online stats. He’d have more than respectable win rates across the board and upon closer scrutiny you’d realise half of his games in every matchup were against lower-tier players that normally don’t even make it to the ASL. He also was notorious for his sloppy TvZ, praised for his stellar TvT and was a dangerous opponent in TvP. Now things are a bit different: his highest winrate is against Zerg (around 58% at the time of this writing) and one third of those games are against hero; he barely keeps his head above the water against Protoss, but he played – and lost – a bunch of sponmatches with Snow and Best. So, I’d say his online stats represent his actual form more closely than previous seasons. He’s played a single game against nOOB since July, which he won, and I expect him to do so again in the opening match. The Protoss player’s stats are pretty dismal in the matchup (31.5%) and even though playing on stage is not that new to him, Sharp has a definite edge experience-wise.

Soulkey is another matter. He is by far the group’s most distinguished player and having to play him undoubtedly fills most Protoss and quite a few Terran with a sense of dread. He’s #1 on the sponbbang chart, his non-mirror stats are insane (68.7% vT, 71% vP), he’s been a champion at both SCII and SC:R and, well, he’s Soulkey. Ss1nz qualified for the second season in a row and last season won the hearts of many, myself included, with his artistic flair after going for a slow reaver push across Eclipse against Effort. But he lost, and I expect him to lose again, and much for the same reasons – Soulkey is just too good.

That would pit Sharp against Soulkey in the winners’ match. I’d favor Soulkey over Sharp in such a match even though the latter’s TvZ seems to have improved substantially simply because Soulkey has long had a reputation for being ZvT monster and appears to be in insane shape right now. The two have played a total of 5 matches between them since July with a 3-2 score for the Zerg player. I simply cannot reasonably expect Sharp to beat Soulkey with his historically lackluster TvZ, recent online stats or no, and if it happens, it would be quite the upset even in a bo1 in the Ro24. Disclaimer: this is Soulkey, he can lose against anyone on a bad day and beat everyone on a good one.

The losers’ match would have nOOB and ss1nz fight for survival. I can’t say much about either player in a Protoss mirror – both players play comparatively few sponmatches in general and mirrors are much rarer in those even for the big-audience streamers, so stats won’t be of much use here. I’d favor nOOB somewhat; ss1nz appears to have slightly better micro, but nOOB’s awareness and army movement seem sharper. On the less technical side, nOOB is the more seasoned player, but ss1nz feels hungrier. In a bo1 Protoss mirror even a build order loss is possible, what with a flat map like Ascension in the pool, but I stand by my choice and send nOOB to the final match.

Ponovna tekma med Sharpom in nOOB se zdi še bolj enostranska kot prva, če upoštevamo skupino zemljevidov. Zdi se, da so vsi trije zemljevidi – Polypoid, Lemon in Revolver – rahlo naklonjeni Teranu. Lemon nam lahko ponudi noro igro, saj je najbolj neortodoksen zemljevid v bazenu, a na splošno vse zgoraj navedeno velja tukaj. Igralec Protoss lahko vsekakor povzroči škodo, a na splošno so možnosti proti njemu in če bi izločil Sharpa, bi bilo to razburjenje.

Končna napoved:
Ostro > nOOB
Soulkey > Ss1nz
Soulkey > Ostro
nOOB > Ss1nz
Ostro > nOOB

Soulkey in Ostro kvalificirajte se za Ro16!

V skupini B so (razvrstili sponbbang.com) igralci št. 3 BeSt , # 15 sSak, # 44 815in brezplačno [gm]. To je absolutno "brez znoja" krog za BeSt. BeSt v štirih letih ni uspel napredovati prek kroga 24 skupinskega dela (ASL 4). Njegova solidna mehanika mu bo zlahka zadostovala, da napreduje mimo sošolcev. Drugi igralec, ki napreduje, bo pripadel ostalim 3 igralcem.

Ujemaj 1 funkcije BeSt vs 815. 815 je nekdanji KT Zerg igralec, ki se je dobro izkazal proti Protossom in nasprotnikom Zergov že leta 2007. Na lestvici sponbbang dosega 44. mesto. Predvsem v zadnjih dveh mesecih ima 65-odstotno stopnjo zmage proti Protossom. Format best of 1 resnično daje 815 največjo možnost za napredovanje tukaj, tako da imajo tisti oboževalci 815, ki se skrivajo tam zunaj, nekaj upanja, ki se ga lahko oklepajo.

Ujemite 2 jami sSak proti brezplačno [gm]. sSak je resnično trpel v ASL, odkar sta Light and Flash ukradla pozornost kot vrhunski Terran. sSak izgubil proti Shuttle dvakrat v osmini 11 finala ASL 24, kljub temu, da se je Shuttle šele vrnil iz vojske. To pomeni, da se nihče ni boril bolj kot zastonj. Zunaj rezultatov se je moral Free spopadati z nenehnimi poškodbami zapestja, zaradi katerih je v okrevanje zastal v velikih delih naenkrat. Včasih vidite PvT pošast, kakršen je nekoč bil, a dolga mikro intenzivna igra resnično poudari težave, ki jih ima kot igralec. SSak je bil nekoč neukrotljiv zaradi svoje nenavadne sposobnosti mikro jastrebov in uničevanja delovnih vrst. Brezplačni res nima možnosti, saj ima sSak možnost pokazati svoj stil nadlegovanja TvP.

Zmagovalci ujemajo točke v bitki med sSak in BeSt. V zadnjih treh mesecih imata ta dva drug proti drugemu izkupiček 3-3. Oba igralca imata tudi 60%+ zmagovalno stopnjo v tekmi PvT/TvP. sSak enostavno predstavlja največjo grožnjo BeStu v tej skupini. Format Best of 1 tukaj škodi sSak, ker bo Terran igralec veliko težje pretentati ali prevarati BeSt. V dvoboju naravnost navzgor vse puščice kažejo na napredovanje BeSt-a tukaj.

Poraženci udarjajo 815 proti brezplačno [gm]. Kar zadeva manj znane igralce, 815 predstavlja eno največjih groženj za free. Med svojim vrhom kespa je imel free 75-odstotno stopnjo zmage proti Zergu. Od padca Kespe je njegov PvZ na turnirjih padel na najnižjo vrednost vseh časov, 41 %. Na vrvi ima 815 najboljšo možno priložnost za napredovanje v finale poražencev.

Nastopil bo poraženčev finale 815 v primerjavi z sSak tako dokončate vse razpoložljive ujemanja edinstvenih igralcev v tej skupini. Iz očesnega testa sta bila BeSt in sSak najlažja izbira za liquibet iz te skupine, vendar so bili zadnji 3 meseci za sSaka v TvZ mračni. SSak ima rekord 59-64 (48%). Zergi rešujejo tekmo s svetlobno hitrostjo, zaradi česar je najboljšim 6 Teranom težje doseči celo pozitiven rezultat zmag. By.Hero (pravzaprav znan po ZvP) je odgovoren za 19 izgub sSaks. Zdaj prihaja 815, ki ima 0-1 proti sSaku v istem časovnem okviru in ima 21-odstotno stopnjo zmage, kar je daleč najslabši zmagovalni rekord med njegovimi vrstniki Zergi, ki so igrali 20 ali več iger. Možnosti 815 za napredovanje iz te skupine bi se pojavile samo, če bi premagal BeSt in nato igral Free v finalu zmagovalca. Ta pot je skoraj statistično nemogoča. SSak ima v tej tekmi zagotovljeno zmago.

sSak in BeSt kvalificirajte se za Ro16!

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