India is seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier after Russia’s ability to supply munitions and spares was hobbled by the war in Ukraine, but must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China, Indian sources said.

The world’s biggest arms importer is slowly turning West as the United States looks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain an ascendant China by weaning the South Asian nation off a traditional dependence on Russia.

Russia supplied 65% of India’s weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.

“We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. “That would be a red line for Washington.”

That view comes despite Moscow’s offers, described by four Indian government sources, among them a senior security official who recently retired, as including platforms such as the most advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the added fillip of joint manufacturing in India.

Vsi štirje viri so govorili pod pogojem anonimnosti, da bi razpravljali o občutljivi temi.

Zunanji in obrambni ministrstvi Indije in Rusije se nista odzvali na zahteve za komentar.

Rusija je Indijo javno pozvala, naj okrepi obrambne vezi, vendar se je premier Narendra Modi osredotočil na domačo proizvodnjo z zahodno tehnologijo, so povedali strokovnjaki in uradniki.

Such efforts would better fit Modi’s “Make in India” programme to encourage domestic manufacturing, as he makes a rare bid for a third term in general elections due by May.

Indija pričakuje, da bo v naslednjem desetletju za obrambna naročila porabila skoraj 100 milijard dolarjev, je dejal njen obrambni minister.

Lani sta Indija in ZDA podpisali pogodbo za General Electric o proizvodnji motorjev v Indiji za pogon svojih bojnih letal, kar je bila prva tovrstna koncesija ZDA nečlanici.

They also plan to “fast-track” technology co-operation and co-production in areas ranging from air combat to intelligence, they said at the time.

Further driving India’s ties with the United States is disquiet over China, as their troops are embroiled in a standoff on their Himalayan frontier since 2020, when one of their bloodiest clashes in five decades killed 24 soldiers.

Jedrsko oboroženi sosedi sta se leta 1962 bojevali v vojni, vendar je njihova meja, dolga več kot 2,000 milj (3,200 km), še vedno sporna.

Indija mora hoditi po tanki črti v odnosih z Rusijo, saj je največji kupec njenega orožja in od leta 2022 eden največjih kupcev njene nafte. Ustavitev takšne trgovine bi Moskvo potisnila bližje Pekingu, edinemu drugemu velikemu gospodarstvu, s katerim ima opravka.

“Arms purchase buys you influence,” said the retired security official. “By shutting them out you make them subservient to China.”

Trade with Russia in energy and other areas would help “keep it as far away as possible from China,” added Unnikrishnan, the analyst.

Russia’s arms exports have largely stabilised since the Ukraine war’s early disruptions, which fuelled concerns about India’s operational readiness, the officials said, but the fears have not entirely dissipated.

“As the Ukraine war stretches, it raises questions if Russia will be able to give us spare parts,” said Swasti Rao, Eurasia expert at the state-run Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. “It is fuelling the diversification.”

Indija si za svojo najnovejšo letalonosilko ogleduje francoska letala in želi izdelovati podmornice s francosko, nemško ali špansko tehnologijo ter bojna letala z ameriškimi in francoskimi motorji, so povedali viri.

“India’s multi-alignment will continue, to straddle ties with Russia and balance it with the West, but it will not be an equal distribution,” Rao said.

Ruski zunanji minister Sergej Lavrov je 27. decembra na skupni tiskovni konferenci z indijskim kolegom S. Jaishankarjem, ki je bil na obisku v Moskvi, naredil zadnji pritisk za več obrambnih dogovorov z Indijo.

Lavrov said he discussed with Jaishankar prospects for military and technical co-operation, including joint production of weapons, adding that Russia was also ready to support India’s goal of increasing domestic production.

Jaishankar je odgovoril, da so vezi zelo močne, z dvosmerno trgovino na rekordni ravni, zahvaljujoč poslom na področju energije, gnojil in premoga za proizvodnjo jekla, vendar ni omenil obrambe.

Pri dogovoru iz leta 2015 za obe državi o skupni izdelavi helikopterjev Kamov Ka-226T v Indiji ni bilo nobenega napredka, 200 pa bo namenjenih njenim obrambnim silam.

Namesto tega je leta 2022 Indija začela uvajati bojne helikopterje, ki jih izdeluje državno podjetje Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

Weapons, from Soviet or Russian-origin tanks to an aircraft carrier and surface-to-air missile systems, make up more than 60% of India’s military hardware.

New Delhi bo potreboval ruske rezervne dele za svoje vzdrževanje in popravila skoraj dve desetletji, so povedali uradniki.

Skupaj izdelujeta križarsko raketo BrahMos in načrtujeta proizvodnjo pušk AK-203 v Indiji.

Toda kolcanje je vključevalo lanskoletne komentarje indijskih zračnih sil, da Rusija ni mogla izpolniti svoje zaveze glede dostave velike platforme, ki je ni identificirala.

And there has been more than a year’s delay in Russia’s delivery of parts of an air defence system India bought in 2018 for $5.5 billion, two Indian military officials said.