Newsquawk Săptămâna viitoare: FOMC, NFP, ISM Mfg PMI, BoE, EZ CPI și EZ GDP | Forexlive

Newsquawk Săptămâna viitoare: FOMC, NFP, ISM Mfg PMI, BoE, EZ CPI și EZ GDP | Forexlive

Marca temporală: 27 ianuarie 2024 9:48
Nodul sursă: 3087849
  • soare: Balanța comercială din Noua Zeelandă
  • mon: șomajul japonez (dec.)
  • Marti: Alegerile Municipale din Israel; Spaniolă Flash CPI (ian), Swiss KOF (ian), German Flash GDP (T4), EZ Flash GDP (T4), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (dec), US Home Prices (noiembrie), JOLTS (dec), vânzări cu amănuntul japoneze (dec.)
  • Miercuri: Anunțuri privind politicile CPI, FOMC și BCB australian, BoJ SOO (ian); PMIS BNS chinezesc (ian), CPI Flash german (ian), Vânzări cu amănuntul în Germania (dec), prețuri de import (dec), Prelim franceză. IPC (ian), șomaj german (ian), EZ GDP Flash Prelim. (Q4), SUA ADP (ianuarie) și indicele costurilor de angajare (Q4), Chicago PMI (ian), Italian Prelim. PCI (ian)
  • joi: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (ian), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Finals (ianuarie), EZ Flash CPI (ian), anunț BoE, ISM Manufacturing PMI (ian).
  • Vineri: Raport privind locurile de muncă din SUA (ian)

Notă: previzualizările sunt afișate în ordinea zilei

Balanța comercială din Noua Zeelandă (soare)

În prezent, nu există așteptări pentru datele din Noua Zeelandă. În comunicatul de luna trecută, deficitul comercial M/M s-a redus de la 1.7 miliarde NZD la 1.2 miliarde NZD – în mare parte conform așteptărilor, în timp ce exporturile au scăzut cu peste 5% a/a, la 5.99 miliarde NZD, iar importurile s-au contractat cu 15% a/a. 7.23 miliarde NZD. Luna a cunoscut o scădere semnificativă a volumelor comerciale cu China, exporturile către China scăzând cu -9.7% a/a, în timp ce importurile au scăzut cu 17% a/a. Analiștii de la Westpac cred că este probabil un deficit mai mic pentru decembrie, reflectând o creștere sezonieră a exporturilor.

Vânzări cu amănuntul în Australia (marți)

December Retail Sales data is expected to print at -2.0% vs. +2.0% in November. November saw a stronger-than-expected 2% increase, contrasting with the choppy performance in September-October and a modest annual growth of 2.2%. The rise in November sales was partly attributed to changing seasonal trends, with more spending during ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber-week’ sales periods. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted a significant increase in November seasonality over the last decade. For December, a decline in retail sales is anticipated, estimated at 0.5%, as per Westpac Card Tracker data. This decline is attributed to uneven spending during the Christmas period and weak underlying momentum, despite consumers taking advantage of sales discounts.

IPC australian (miercuri)

The quarterly and monthly CPI data will be in focus at the RBA. The monthly CPI Indicator, though not a precise monthly measure of CPI (as it aggregates various price survey data throughout the quarter), is vital for updating desks’ quarterly CPI forecasts. Markets expect the Y/Y metric at 3.7% whilst Westpac predicts a 3.0% rise. Q4 CPI meanwhile is anticipated to show a quarterly increase of 0.8% (prev. 1.2%) and an annual rise of 4.3% (prev. 5.4%) – slightly under the RBA’s 4.5% projection. The Trimmed Mean, or “core”, is seen at 0.9% for the quarter and 4.4% annually, marginally beneath the RBA’s 4.5% forecast. Westpac said “Our forecast for inflation is consistent with our current view that the RBA will remain on hold at the February meeting and that the RBA will be reducing the cash rate at the September meeting later this year.”

Anunț trimestrial de rambursare UST (miercuri)

Bank of America thinks the Treasury will deliver a repeat of the increase in auction sizes that it announced in November, where the Treasury suggested that a final increase would be needed for issuance to align with financing needs. “This would mark the third consecutive quarterly increase in coupon supply since the August refunding,” BofA writes, “we see room for Treasury to continue growing coupon supply in 2025-2026, but expect it to hold off on further adjustments this year given uncertainty around QT and deficits.” BofA also argues that the Treasury might prefer to delay further coupon increases given the perception of market sensitivity to supply announcements, and a desire to refrain from tightening financial conditions in an election year. In terms of the details, BofA says that while it is not the base case, there is potential for Treasury to deliver larger back-end supply next week than in November given that it delivered a lower increase at the 10yr and 30yr points vs its expectations and what the TBAC had recommended, a decision BofA thinks was driven by concern about the demand backdrop and sharp increase in term premium from August to October.

Anunț FOMC (miercuri)

The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at its January meeting, according to all economists surveyed by Reuters. The central bank is expected to begin cutting rates in Q2 in response to cooling inflation, according to 86 of 123 surveyed (55 thought June was more likely, while 31 see a reduction in May). Additionally, the Reuters poll reveals that most economists (72 of the 123) believe the Fed will cut rates by 100bps or fewer this year – that compares to money market pricing, which currently sees five 25bps rate cuts fully priced, with a good chance of a sixth; the Fed’s own forecasts see three 25bps rate cuts this year. “We still expect the Committee to maintain a cautious stance in the near-term even amid an increasingly improving profile for consumer prices, as the Fed would like to ascertain that the recent progress in inflation is sustainable,” TD Securities said.

Anunț BCB (miercuri)

The BCB is expected to fire its fifth rate cut of the current easing cycle, reducing rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Analysts continue to see further rate reductions this year, with the weekly central bank poll of private economists seeing the Selic falling to 9.00% this year, before easing a little further to 8.50% in 2025. However, Capital Economics suggests that “with inflation set to remain above target, fiscal risks likely to flare up again and the labour market only loosening gradually, we think interest rates will be lowered more cautiously than most currently expect (it sees the end-2024 Selic rate at 9.50%).”

China BNS PMI (miercuri)/Caixin Manufacturing PMI (joi)

Datele PMI chineze vor fi urmărite îndeaproape pentru a măsura starea de sănătate a redresării chineze, deși nu este clar dacă perioada de sondaj va cuprinde cea mai recentă reducere a RRR anunțată de PBoC, care dezlănțuiește lichiditate de aproximativ 1tln CNY. În prezent, nu există prognoze pentru valori. În decembrie, valorile de producție de la NBS și Caixin s-au deturnat, PMI oficial al guvernului indicând o contracție continuă (la 49.0), în timp ce raportul Caixin Global a sugerat o creștere ușoară (la 50.4), deși acesta din urmă este cunoscut a fi mai volatil decât metrica BNS. Sentimentul din China a fost defavorabil în cea mai mare parte a acestei luni, numeroasele măsuri anunțate anul trecut fiind în mare parte trecute cu vederea de către investitori, deși reducerea RRR anunțată miercuri a ridicat probabil sentimentul investitorilor față de China de la minim. Analiştii de la JP Morgan se aşteaptă ca China să-şi poată menţine impulsul de redresare până în primul semestru din 1, înainte de a modera la tendinţa de creştere în semestrul al doilea 2024. JPM spune că deflaţia se va încheia în 2, beneficiind de dinamica schimbătoare a preţurilor la mărfurile la nivel mondial. Cu toate acestea, biroul sugerează că inflația scăzută va persista pe fondul sprijinului politic părtinitor pentru producție față de consum.

EZ GDP Flash (miercuri)

Se așteaptă ca publicarea rapidă a PIB-ului zonei euro să arate o scădere de 0.1% T/T în T4 față de contracția de 0.1% în T3, rata anualizată fiind vizibilă la 0% Y/Y, ceea ce s-ar potrivi și cu tipărirea T3. Înainte de lansare, analiștii de la Investec notează că zona euro a continuat să flirteze cu o recesiune tehnică de ceva timp, fără a atinge pragul de hotar; analiștii săi adaugă că acest lucru a venit în contextul unei crize energetice care decurge din războiul Rusia-Ucraina. Cu toate acestea, deoarece prețurile la energie s-au retras semnificativ, performanța economiei din zona euro pare mai puțin impresionantă. Din punct de vedere regional, recesiunea tehnică germană din S2 2023 este în mod clar remarcabilă. Acestea fiind spuse, Investec este de părere că „alte mari economii din zona euro par să fi obținut o performanță mai bună, evitând această etichetă” și, ca atare, acest lucru ar trebui să conducă la o citire mai amplă a creșterii stagnante (0% T/T) pentru lansarea viitoare. Dintr-o perspectivă de politică, un raport soft ar putea anticipa prețurile de piață pentru o reducere a ratei. Cu toate acestea, astfel de pariuri ar putea fi convinși, având în vedere că CPI este lansat în ziua următoare.

EZ Flash CPI (joi)

Se așteaptă ca IPC general A/Y să crească la 3.1% de la 2.9%, rata de bază scăzând la 3.2% de la 3.4%. Publicarea anterioară a înregistrat o creștere a inflației globale la 2.9% în decembrie (față de 2.4% anterior, pe fondul efectelor nefavorabile ale bazei energetice din Germania, în timp ce inflația de bază a continuat să scadă, decembrie arătând o scădere a măsurii super-core la 3.4% de la 3.6). %. Pentru următoarea ediție, analiștii de la Moody's notează că „efectele de bază în segmentul energetic vor menține presiunea ascendentă asupra citirii, dar ne așteptăm ca acestea să fie depășite de prețurile mai mici la alimente și la bunurile de bază”. Biroul adaugă că și inflația serviciilor „ar trebui să scadă, deși nu cu mult”. Dintr-o perspectivă de politică, o lectură slabă ar putea vedea piețele pe deplin prețul într-o reducere a ratei dobânzii din aprilie, care este văzută în prezent la aproximativ 90% probabilitate, cu un total de 140bps de relaxare observat până la sfârșitul anului. Cu toate acestea, astfel de prețuri se vor menține doar dacă factorii de decizie nu închid ușa unei mișcări în aprilie.

Anunț BoE (joi)

Analysts surveyed are unanimous in their view that the MPC will once again stand pat on rates, leaving the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The vote will likely be unanimous, with the three December dissenters (Greene, Haskell, Mann) likely to move to the “unchanged” camp after being wrongfooted by the November inflation report, which saw the all-important services print decline to 6.3% Y/Y from 6.6% – in stark contrast to the MPC’s projection of 6.9%. Since the prior meeting, the annualised rate of headline inflation unexpectedly advanced to 4.0% Y/Y from 3.9%, while the services print ticked higher to 6.4% Y/Y from 6.3%. However, expectations for the broader disinflationary trend to continue remain in place; ING bank is of the view that inflation will dip below 2% in April and sit around the 1.5% area in May/June. Elsewhere, GDP in November expanded 0.3% M/M (vs the 0.36% contraction the prior month). Survey data remains strong with the January composite PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.1 with the services print at 53.8 vs. prev. 53.4. In the labour market, the unemployment rate (subject to data quality concerns) holding steady at 4.2%, while headline earnings growth in the 3m/YY period to November fell to 6.5% from 7.2%. Softness has been observed in the consumer too, with monthly retail sales -3.2% in December (vs prev. 1.4%). Incremental commentary from the MPC has been minimal, cementing expectations of a hold in policy. Beyond the upcoming meeting, markets assign an approximately 80% chance of a June rate cut, with a total of 92bps of easing seen by year-end. Thirty-eight of the 70 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the first cut to come in Q2, with all but four seeing at least one cut before September. For the accompanying MPR, Oxford Economics expects that the MPC will “bring forward the timing of when it expects inflation to return to the 2% target to Q2 2024 from end-2025.” On growth, the consultancy says “the BoE will likely take a less downbeat view of the economy’s prospects compared to November, when it forecast that GDP would flatline this year and grow only 0.25% in 2025.”

ISM Manufacturing PMI (joi)

As a comparison, S&P Global’s flash US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 47.9 in December, to a fresh 15-month high, which signals the first improvement in operating conditions at goods producers in nine months, S&P said, though added that the upturn was only fractional amid a further drop in production. The output index picked-up to 48.7 from 48.1, with manufacturing firms continuing to see a moderate drop in activity in the month. Challenging trucking conditions due to storms and transportation delays was reported to have weighed on vendor performance, with lead times rising for the first time in over a year. Still, S&P said it was an encouraging start to the year, with output across both goods and services rising in January at the fastest rate since last June, with growth momentum stepping up on the back of improved demand conditions. “New orders inflows have now picked up for three months, buoyed in particular by improving sales to domestic customers, helping lift business confidence about the year ahead to the most optimistic since May 2022,” S&P said, adding that “confidence has also been buoyed by hopes of lower inflation in 2024, easing the cost of living squeeze and facilitating the path to lower interest rates.” Prices rose in January at the slowest rate since the initial pandemic lockdowns of early 2020, the report said, with companies stating that selling price inflation was now below pre-pandemic averages, and consistent with CPI dropping below the Fed’s 2% target. “With the survey indicating that supply delays have intensified while labour markets remain tight, cost pressures will need to be monitored closely in the coming months,” S&P writes, “but for now the survey send a clear and welcome message of resilient economic growth and sharply waning inflation.”

Previzualizare Riksbank (joi)

Se așteaptă să lase ratele neschimbate la 4.00%, având în vedere indicațiile din noiembrie ca ratele să rămână la acest nivel pentru 2024 și 2025. O decizie care este justificată de inflația care continuă să se modereze alături de semnele continue ale unei încetiniri interne; cu toate acestea, PMI pentru servicii pentru decembrie a revenit la pragul de 50.0. Având în vedere amprentele inflației, este posibil ca Riksbank să-și revizuiască îndrumările pentru nicio reducere pentru 2024, deși un astfel de anunț ar putea fi considerat prematur la această întâlnire. Deși ratele sunt așteptate neschimbate, Riksbank ar putea alege să anunțe o creștere a ritmului vânzărilor de obligațiuni guvernamentale, așa cum a fost semnalat la ultima adunare. Ca o reamintire, în noiembrie, Riksbank și-a lăsat rata la 4.00%, sfidând așteptările privind o creștere și a declarat că este pregătită să crească în continuare dobânda de politică monetară dacă perspectivele inflației se deteriorează. În plus, în ceea ce privește achizițiile, au spus că iau în considerare creșterea ritmului vânzărilor de obligațiuni guvernamentale (în prezent 5 miliarde SEK/lună) potențial în ianuarie. Un anunț care a fost considerat în general drept o reținere neutră. În câteva minute, elementul cel mai pertinent a fost schimbarea atenției Breman pe inflație/activitate de la SEK slabă.

Întâlnirea JMMC (joi)

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is poised to meet on February 1st as part of meetings held every two months to monitor the implementation of the OPEC pact. As a reminder, the JMMC will not implement any changes to policy but they can make a recommendations to the decision-making OPEC+ body. Note, Reuters sources earlier this month suggested a video conference will be held. The meeting also comes against the backdrop of volatile crude prices and as geopolitical tensions escalate. There have been no indications that the OPEC+ group is looking to take action in the near term. In terms of the most recent OPEC MOMR, the release inaugurated a 2025 demand growth forecast which was a downgrade from the current 2024 forecast (2.2mln BPD in 2024 vs 1.8mln BPD in 2025). Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco CEO at Davos suggested that 2024 oil demand growth was seen around 1.5mln BPD (vs 2.2mln BPD forecast in the MOMR). Supply metrics from Angola were also omitted from calculations following the country’s departure from the OPEC-13 in December. The latest Reuters sources stated the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during the meeting, but one source said the meeting would mainly discuss the group’s production levels and that there will be no recommendations at the JMMC. One source added that a decision on whether or not to extend a portion of the group’s voluntary oil output cuts into April would likely come at the end of February, although another source said the decision’s timing was not yet clear. Meanwhile, a Russian delegate stated there is no evidence that additional steps are needed.

Raport privind locurile de muncă din SUA (vineri)

The consensus expects 162k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in January (range 140-285k), with the unemployment rate projected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, slightly cooler than the +0.4% registered in December, while average workweek hours are seen ticking higher to 34.4hrs from 34.3. Analysts also point out that the January jobs data will incorporate final benchmark revisions; Investec said that the prelim estimate suggested that the level of payrolls in March 2023 will be revised 306k lower, but argues that this tells us little about recent trends, and updated seasonal factors may have an impact. NOTE: Ahead of the January employment report, the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released on Tuesday; Moody’s said that the labour market came slowly into better balance throughout 2023, and it expects the JOLTS data to show job openings falling modestly from the 8.79mln printed in November. And on Wednesday, the Q4 employment cost data will be released, which analysts will look to to determine if the moderation in pay growth continued in the final quarter of the year; Moody’s looks for a slight deceleration from Q3’s 1.1% pace.

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