Dólar da Nova Zelândia recua após subir acima de 0.6200 nas primeiras horas da manhã

Dólar da Nova Zelândia recua após subir acima de 0.6200 nas primeiras horas da manhã

Carimbo de data / hora: 29 de novembro de 2023, 1h26
Nó Fonte: 2985040

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  • The New Zealand Dollar surges higher following the RBNZ policy meeting on Wednesday.
  • Although the RBNZ left interest rates unchanged, commentary from Governor Orr suggested the possibility of further rate hikes. 
  • NZD/USD pushed to a new peak above 0.6200 following the meeting, extending its short-term uptrend.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied on Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting in the early hours. However, the NZD/USD pair’s high at 0.6208 during the Asian session has pulled back all the way to 0.6151 at the time of writing during the US session. This still amounts to a 0.25% intraday gain.

Although the RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate unchanged, the kiwi rose after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said he would not rule out further interest rate hikes if inflation remained elevated. The prospect of higher interest taxas is bullish for currencies as it attracts higher capital inflows.  

Daily digest market movers: New Zealand Dollar surges after RBNZ meeting

  • The New Zealand Dollar rallies after the RBNZ Governor mentions the possibility interest rates could rise even higher in the future, depending on the outlook for inflation. 
  • The bank left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50% at the meeting, however, as markets had expected. 
  • The hawkish tone of press conference after the meeting surprised many investors as New Zealand data – though still elevated – has come out below expectations recently, suggesting, if anything, interest rates are at risk of being cut. 
  • Official data from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the 12 months to September rose 5.6%, lower than expectations of 5.9% and the prior quarter’s reading of 6.0%. On a quarterly basis, New Zealand’s inflation increased to 1.8% but fell short of expectations of 2.0%.
  • New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.9% in the September quarter, compared with 3.6% last quarter. 
  • The new center right-wing coalition government has plans to change the RBNZ’s dual mandate, which combines maintaining price stability with full employment. They want to scrap the employment part and for the RBNZ to focus on price stability. 
  • Preliminary talks between the new government and RBNZ officials were characterized as being “constructive” by Orr, suggesting the bank may be open to changing to a single mandate. 
  • Such a move would enable the RBNZ to be more single-minded about bringing inflation down using higher interest rates and regardless of the impact on the economy and labor market, it thus could be viewed as a hawkish development and bullish for NZD.

New Zealand Dollar technical analysis: NZD/USD peaks above 0.6200

NZD/USD – the number of US Dollars that can be bought with one New Zealand Dollar – peaks above 0.6200 after rallying following the RBNZ policy meeting. Although it has pulled back down since, the pair remains in a short and medium-term bullish trend, which continues to bias longs over shorts.  

The MACD momentum indicator is rising in line with price suggesting the short and medium-term uptrend is healthy. 

Dólar da Nova Zelândia vs Dólar Americano: Gráfico Diário

Last night’s post-RBNZ surge means a possible bullish inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern which formed at the autumn lows has almost reached its conservative price target of 0.6215. 

The pair may be in the process of forming a bearish shooting star Japanese vela pattern on Wednesday. If the candlestick retains its shape at the end of the day and is followed by a strong bearish candle on Thursday, it could signal a short-term bearish correction. 

A break above the current 0.6208 highs, however, would add impetus to the short and medium-term uptrend. The next major resistance level is then at 0.6238, where the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) resides followed by 0.6274, the July 27 highs. 

Dólar da Nova Zelândia vs Dólar Americano: Gráfico de 4 horas

A possible bearish ending wedge price pattern, which formed on the 4-hour chart, failed to signal a move lower as price actually broke out to the upside extending the uptrend. Whilst this could mark an exhaustion move more downside would be required to confirm.

A possible tweezer top Japanese candlestick reversal pattern may have formed at the highs (circled). This is a short-term bearish signal. The pair is already finding support from the upper boundary line of the wedge at 0.6140. If it pulls back any lower, it could find support at the lower boundary line, at 0.6080. 

The long-term trend is still overall bearish, suggesting a risk of a recapitulation remains.

Perguntas frequentes sobre código de desconto promocional

O Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) é o banco central do país. Os seus objectivos económicos são alcançar e manter a estabilidade de preços – alcançada quando a inflação, medida pelo Índice de Preços no Consumidor (IPC), se situa entre 1% e 3% – e apoiar o máximo emprego sustentável.

O Comitê de Política Monetária (MPC) do Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decide o nível apropriado da Taxa Oficial de Caixa (OCR) de acordo com seus objetivos. Quando a inflação estiver acima da meta, o banco tentará controlá-la aumentando o seu OCR chave, tornando mais caro para as famílias e as empresas o empréstimo de dinheiro e, assim, arrefecendo a economia. Taxas de juro mais elevadas são geralmente positivas para o dólar neozelandês (NZD), pois conduzem a rendimentos mais elevados, tornando o país um local mais atraente para os investidores. Pelo contrário, as taxas de juro mais baixas tendem a enfraquecer o NZD.

O emprego é importante para o Banco Central da Nova Zelândia (RBNZ) porque um mercado de trabalho restrito pode alimentar a inflação. O objectivo do RBNZ de “máximo emprego sustentável” é definido como a maior utilização de recursos laborais que pode ser sustentada ao longo do tempo sem criar uma aceleração da inflação. “Quando o emprego estiver no seu nível máximo sustentável, haverá uma inflação baixa e estável. No entanto, se o emprego estiver acima do nível máximo sustentável durante muito tempo, acabará por fazer com que os preços subam cada vez mais rapidamente, exigindo que o MPC aumente as taxas de juro para manter a inflação sob controlo”, afirma o banco.

Em situações extremas, o Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pode aprovar uma ferramenta de política monetária chamada Quantitative Easing. QE é o processo pelo qual o RBNZ imprime moeda local e a utiliza para comprar activos – geralmente obrigações governamentais ou empresariais – de bancos e outras instituições financeiras com o objectivo de aumentar a oferta monetária interna e estimular a actividade económica. O QE geralmente resulta em um dólar neozelandês (NZD) mais fraco. A flexibilização quantitativa é o último recurso quando é pouco provável que a simples redução das taxas de juro atinja os objectivos do banco central. O RBNZ o utilizou durante a pandemia de Covid-19.

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