US dollar dips as inflation concerns ease

The US dollar beats a modest retreat

The pace of the US dollar reversal after last week’s mid-week inflation scare slowed overnight, with the greenback finishing modestly lower. The dollar index fell 0.12% to 90.20 and has eased another 0.10% to 90.10 this morning, as Asian markets race to discount viral fallouts regionally. That leaves the index just above support at 90.00 with a daily close under that level, signalling further losses to 89.50.

EUR/USD has risen 0.13% to 1.4166 this morning, having tested its rising support line at 1.2045, also its 100-day moving average, perfectly, just last week. Resistance at 1.2180 is close by, and a move higher will signal more gains to 1.2250 initially. Similarly, GBP/USD exploded higher after breaking strong resistance at 1.4000 last Monday. It then retraced mid-week to 1.4000 almost exactly before resuming its rally to 1.4170 as of this morning. It is now set to test 1.4240 on its way to 1.4400. Technical analysis nirvana doesn’t occur as poetically as the moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD over the past week, and in such circumstances, one must respect the underlying signals. The vaccination reopening premium has returned for now.

USD/JPY continues to mark time above 109.00 with the US/Japan yield differential offsetting general US dollar bearishness. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars have recouped some recent losses, leaving them mid-range while the Canadian dollar commodity rally has restarted in earnest. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2050 this morning, and with commodity prices still pumping up the volume, further Canadian dollar gains seem inevitable now. Given Canada’s dire Covid-19 situation domestically, the outperformance of the CAD provides an interesting window on where financial markets’ real loyalties lie. If Covid isn’t in the US, Europe or China, they’re not interested.

The Korean won has rallied 0.50% today and has recovered much of yesterday’s early losses versus the greenback, another indicative signal. Asian currencies across the region are modestly higher today after a firmer CNY fixing, with most of the action in currency markets focused on the DM space.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications including the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.

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