EUR/USD Forecast: Markets Lull on Thanksgiving

• Currencies saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

• US data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in American unemployment claims.

• The European Central Bank will release its October policy meeting minutes.

While the EUR/USD forecast leaned slightly bearish, the currency markets remained hushed on Thursday due to holidays in Japan and the United States. Meanwhile, the US dollar struggled to maintain slight gains after data prompted investors to reconsider the peak for Fed rates.

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The euro saw little movement, with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. However, the euro fell as the dollar index rebounded overnight, rising from a 2-1/2 month low. Economic data revealed a greater-than-expected drop in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week.

However, confusing investors, data also showed a larger-than-anticipated decline in orders for durable US manufactured goods in October. Therefore, it shows a significant economic slowdown after strong third-quarter growth.

Meanwhile, a Michigan survey indicated that consumers expect higher inflation in the near and long term. 

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 have decreased. Notably, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 27% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 policy meeting. 

Elsewhere, the ECB will release its October policy meeting minutes. Additionally, policymakers anticipate a reversal in recent rate hikes. Governing Council member Joachim Nagel suggested rates in the Eurozone are at or near their peak in the current cycle.

Furthermore, global flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) will be released. These will help investors assess recession risks and the timing of rate cuts. 

EUR/USD key events today

Investors are not expecting any significant economic releases as the US observes the Thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, trading might be thin today.

EUR/USD technical forecast: Bearish RSI divergence takes effect

The bearish divergence on the RSI has played out on the charts, pushing the price below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price broke below the 1.0900 key level before pulling back for a retest. It was a good attempt for the bears to take control. 

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However, the price still needs to detach from the SMA. Moreover, the RSI must start trading in bearish territory to confirm a bearish takeover. If bears win this battle, the price will likely drop to the 1.0750 support level. However, if bulls regain strength, the price will likely take out the 1.0951 resistance level.

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• Source: https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-markets-lull-on-thanksgiving/