#43 What is the likelihood of Balaji’s Bitcoin bet, really?

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This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.

Contents

00:00 Intro

00:43 Log scale

02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared)

05:57 1-sigma percentile moves

06:30 2-sigma percentile moves

08:30 3-sigma percentile moves

10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June

15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline

18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared)

22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price?

Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target?

All-time trend coefficients:

y = a * x ^ b

y = y-intercept * x ^ slope

y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588%

Year end 2011 trend coefficients:

y = a * x ^ b

y = y-intercept * x ^ slope

y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950%

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