2024 to enjoy period of stability before significant growth: Cox Automotive

New car sales are likely to top the 2-million-mark next year – a 4.3% year-on-year increase although nowhere near the averages seen between 2000-2019, according to automotive services provider Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Report, produced in collaboration with Grant Thornton.

Its baseline scenario foresees 2,020,050 new vehicle registrations in 2024 while used car transactions will probably be around the 7,350,205 mark which will represent a 2.8% year-on-year increase although a 0.3% decrease compared to the 2001-2019 average.

“The calculations suggest that 2024 will be a period of stabilisation in the automotive sector generally, followed by a notable rise in registrations in successive years,” said the report authors.

The baseline scenario is one of three scenarios published by Cox Automotive and is the scenario it expects to play out. The report also includes upside and downside scenarios.

Assumptions guiding the baseline prediction include figures for new car registrations will be dictated by continuing economic pressures, the agency sales model transition and the stabilising of global production volumes. Used market numbers for 2024 will be shaped by issues including a gradual adoption of used battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a moderately recovering economy and a “carefully managed” growth in the supply of used vehicles – the report concludes.

Insight Report author and Cox Automotive’s insight director Philip Nothard said: ““Recent years in the automotive sector have seen a period of unprecedented change and tumult that are being driven by economic forces, geopolitics and technological innovation. In our latest Insight Report, we closely examine these factors and outline how we think the future will pan out for dealers, the EV market and much more.

“We anticipate that the market will eventually be split between manufacturers who want profitability at the cost of volume and market share; and those who will return to a ‘push’ market at the cost of profit for volume and market dominance.”

Insight Report 2023/24 also features discussion of trends that are shaping the industry such as the agency sales model, omnichannel, the rise of EVs, battery management and sustainability.

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• Source: https://www.am-online.com/news/market-insight/2023/10/26/2024-to-enjoy-period-of-stability-before-significant-growth