Tygodniowe prognozy rynkowe (29-02 lutego) | Przeżyj na zawsze

NADCHODZĄCE WYDARZENIA:

• Wtorek: Japonia
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Pewność siebie.
• Wednesday: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Czwartek: Chiny
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Piątek:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

Wtorek

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the trwać
raport zaskoczony na minus obie
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. To będzie
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

Zaufanie konsumentów w USA było
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
zaskakująco podskoczył w grudniu do poziomów ostatnich od lipca. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see rynek pracy.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in grudzień.

Wednesday

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% wcześniejszy,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
dobrze. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% wcześniejszy.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where nakarmiony
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

Czwartek

Oczekuje się, że CPI w strefie euro r/r wyniesie 2.8%
vs. 2.9% wcześniejszy,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Sklep
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
lato. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the praca
rynek and wage growth but a surprisingly
gorąco CPI
raport. Co więcej, Sprzedaż detaliczna
Obroty saw a big plunge in December while
dotychczasowy PMI
poprawiła się w styczniu. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

Liczba wniosków o zasiłek dla bezrobotnych w USA nadal jest jedna
z najważniejszych wydań każdego tygodnia, ponieważ jest to bardziej aktualny wskaźnik na rynku
stan rynku pracy. Początkowe roszczenia krążą wokół cyklu
minimów, natomiast wartość roszczeń kontynuacyjnych po osiągnięciu nowego szczytu cyklu zaczęła wykazywać tendencję
niższy. W tym tygodniu konsensus przewiduje, że początkowe roszczenia wyniosą 210 tys. w porównaniu do 214 tys wcześniejszy,
chociaż nie ma konsensusu w sprawie roszczeń ciągłych, chociaż było to widoczne w poprzedniej wersji
wzrost do 1833 tys. w porównaniu z 1806 tys. wcześniej.

Oczekiwany jest amerykański indeks PMI dla przemysłu ISM
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 wcześniejszy.
Ostatni tydzień, S&P
Globalny wskaźnik PMI dla przemysłu
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
od 2022 października. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Piątek

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in grudzień
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
widać na poziomie 0.3% w porównaniu z 0.4% wcześniej. The last report had some notable underlying
Słabości with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Źródło: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/