주간 시장 전망(29월 02~2.1일) | Forexlive

플라톤에 의해 재발행

팔로워 : 0

다가오는 이벤트:

화요일: 일본
Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
자신.
수요일: BoJ
Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
목요일: 중국
Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
금요일:
Australia PPI, US NFP.

화요일

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the 지난
신고 단점에 놀랐다 두
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. 될 것입니다
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

미국 채용 공고

미국 소비자 신뢰지수는
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
놀랍게도 12월에 7월 이후 최저 수준으로 급등했습니다.. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see 노동 시장.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in XNUMX월.

미국 소비자 신뢰

수요일

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% 이전에,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
잘. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

RBA 절사 평균 CPI(YoY)

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% 이전에.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

미국 고용 비용 지수

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where 연방 준비 은행
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

연방 준비 제도 이사회 (FRB)

목요일

유로존 CPI Y/Y는 2.8%로 예상됩니다.
vs. 2.9% 이전에,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. 시장
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
여름. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

유로존 핵심 CPI(YoY)

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the 노동
시장 and wage growth but a surprisingly
고온 CPI
보고서. 더욱이, 소매
세일즈 saw a big plunge in December while
전에, PMI
1월에는 개선됐다. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

BOE

미국 실업수당 청구는 계속해서 발생하고 있습니다.
이는 매주 가장 중요한 릴리스 중 하나입니다.
노동시장 상황. 초기 클레임은 주기를 계속 맴돌고 있습니다.
새로운 주기 최고점에 도달한 후 지속적인 청구가 추세를 보이기 시작했습니다.
절감. 이번 주 컨센서스는 최초 청구 건수가 210K 대 214K로 보입니다. 이전에,
이전 릴리스에서 확인되었음에도 불구하고 계속 청구에 대한 합의는 없습니다.
이전 1833K에 비해 1806K로 증가합니다.

미국 실업 청구

미국 ISM 제조업 PMI가 예상됩니다.
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 이전에.
지난 주, S & P
글로벌 제조업 PMI
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
2022 년 XNUMX 월 이후. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

미국 ISM 제조 PMI

금요일

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in XNUMX월
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
이전에는 0.3% 대 0.4%로 나타났습니다. The last report had some notable underlying
약점 with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

미국 실업률