週間市場展望 (16 月 20 ～ XNUMX 日) | 外国為替ライブ

今後のイベント:

• 月曜日: 日本鉱工業生産、NZ CPI、人民銀行 MLF。
• 火曜日：RBA会議議事録、英国雇用統計、ドイツZEW、カナダCPI、米国小売売上高、米国製造業生産、米国NAHB住宅市場指数。
• Wednesday: 中国のGDP、中国の鉱工業生産、中国の小売売上高、中国の失業率、英国のCPIとPPI、米国の住宅着工件数と建築許可。
• 木曜日：オーストラリアの雇用統計、米国の失業保険申請状況、パウエルFRB議長が講演。
• 金曜日：日本のCPI、PBoC LPR、英国の小売売上高、カナダの小売売上高。

月曜日

The New Zealand CPI Y/Y is expected to
tick lower to 5.9% vs. 6.0% prior, while the Q/Q figure is seen at 2.0% vs.
1.1% prior. The elevated inflation rate is mainly due to the sharp rise in fuel
prices. Unless we get a big upside surprise, the RBNZ is unlikely to respond
with another rate hike as it has stated that it’s ready to look through the
short-term “noise”.

The PBoC is likely to keep the MLF and LPR
rates unchanged on Monday and Friday respectively as the economic outlook has
started to improve a little as seen with the latest PMI
図。 一方、 インフレ
図 last week disappointed, which might
give them space to go for another rate cut, although the monthly reading has
been positive for the last 3 months.

火曜日

The UK employment change is expected at
-195K vs. -207K prior and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
The average earnings excluding bonus are seen at 7.8% vs. 7.8% prior, while the
average earnings including bonus are expected at 8.3% vs. 8.5% prior. 　
BoE has paused at the last meeting and, as 知事
Bailey has stated recently,
“future decisions are going to be tight”,
so strong readings might lead to another rate hike at the upcoming meeting,
especially if the inflation data surprises to the upside later in the week.

カナダのCPI前年比は4.0%と予想される
vs. 4.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.4% prior. There’s no
consensus at the moment for the Core measures, although those are the ones
that the BoC will look at to decide what to do at the next week’s meetingにつきましてはあまり気にしないでください。
a reminder, underlying inflation has been surprising to the upside and that’s
何か 可能性が高い
to trigger another rate hike
今週の数値が引き続き高ければ、BoC からの発表となる。

米国小売売上高 M/M は、
rise 0.3% vs. 0.6% prior, while the Core measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.6%
prior. Watch out for the Control Group, which is seen as the best gauge of
個人消費。 This report is unlikely to change anything for the Fed as
the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at the November decision
同じように.

Wednesday

英国のCPI前年比は6.5%と予想されています。
6.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.4% vs. 0.3% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 6.0% vs. 6.2% prior, while there’s no consensus at the
moment for the monthly rate. The BoE is likely to look through an upside
surprise in the inflation data if the labour market report shows weakness.
On the other hand, if both the reports show strength, then we are likely to see
another rate hike at the upcoming meeting.

木曜日

The US Jobless Claims have been showing
strength for several weeks. 姓
週間 though, we got a miss in Continuing
Claims, which measures ongoing unemployment benefits and can be viewed as an
indicator of how easily workers can find another job after getting unemployed. It
could be something or it could be nothing, but it’s certainly worth to keep an
目を向ける. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 213K vs. 209K prior,
while there’s no consensus on Continuing Claims at the time of writing.

金曜日

日本のコアCPI前年比は次のように予想されます。
2.7% vs. 3.1% prior, while there’s no consensus at the moment for the Core-Core
figure and the Headline CPI, which were previously 4.3% and 3.2% respectively.
The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for national CPI,
disappointed recently and, although the 日銀
is going to revise its inflation forecasts higher,
they are unlikely to normalise their monetary policy unless they see
sustained wage growth or big upside surprises in the inflation data.

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• 情報源： https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-16-20-october-20231015/