תחזית שוק שבועית (29-02 בפברואר) | Forexlive

אירועים קרובים:

• יום שלישי: יפן
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  אמון.
• יום רביעי: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• יום חמישי: סין
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• יום שישי:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

יום שלישי

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the אחרון
לדווח surprised to the downside with שניהם
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. זה יהיה
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

The US Consumer Confidence has been
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
surprisingly jumped in December to levels last since in July. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see the labour market.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in דֵצֶמבֶּר.

יום רביעי

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% קוֹדֵם,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
טוֹב. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% קוֹדֵם.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where הפד
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

יום חמישי

מדד המחירים לצרכן של גוש האירו ב-Y/Y צפוי לעמוד על 2.8%
vs. 2.9% קוֹדֵם,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. השוק
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
קיץ. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the עבודה
שוק and wage growth but a surprisingly
חם מדד המחירים לצרכן
report. Moreover, the קניות
מבצעים saw a big plunge in December while
מה היא PMI
improved in January. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

תביעות האבטלה בארה"ב ממשיכות להיות אחת
מהגרסאות החשובות ביותר מדי שבוע, מכיוון שזהו אינדיקטור בזמן על
מצב שוק העבודה. תביעות ראשוניות ממשיכות לרחף סביב המחזור
שפל, בעוד תביעות מתמשכות לאחר שהגיעו לשיא מחזורי חדש החלו לעלות במגמה
להוריד. השבוע הקונצנזוס רואה תביעות ראשוניות ב-210 לעומת 214 קוֹדֵם,
בעוד שאין הסכמה לתביעות מתמשכות למרות שהגרסה הקודמת ראתה
עלייה ל-1833K לעומת 1806K לפני כן.

מדד ISM Manufacturing בארה"ב צפוי
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 קוֹדֵם.
בשבוע שעבר, S&P
Global Manufacturing PMI
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
מאז אוקטובר 2022. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

יום שישי

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in דֵצֶמבֶּר
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
נראה ב-0.3% לעומת 0.4% קודם. The last report had some notable underlying
חולשות with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• מקור: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/