Outlook Pasar Mingguan (29-02 Februari) | hidup forex

ACARA MENDATANG:

• Selasa: Jepang
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Kepercayaan.
• Rabu: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Kamis: China
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Jumat:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

Selasa

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the terakhir
melaporkan terkejut dengan sisi negatifnya kedua
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. Boleh jadi
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

The US Consumer Confidence has been
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
secara mengejutkan melonjak pada bulan Desember ke level terakhir sejak bulan Juli. Dibandingkan
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see pasar tenaga kerja.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in Desember.

Rabu

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% sebelumnya,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
baik. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% sebelumnya.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where Fed
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

Kamis

IHK Zona Euro Y/Y diperkirakan sebesar 2.8%
vs. 2.9% sebelumnya,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Pasar
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
musim panas. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the tenaga kerja
pasar and wage growth but a surprisingly
panas CPI
laporan. Selain itu, Retail
Penjualan saw a big plunge in December while
itu PMI
membaik pada bulan Januari. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

Klaim Pengangguran AS tetap sama
salah satu rilis paling penting setiap minggu karena ini merupakan indikator yang lebih tepat waktu
keadaan pasar tenaga kerja. Klaim Awal terus berputar di sekitar siklus
terendah, sementara Klaim Berkelanjutan setelah mencapai siklus tertinggi baru mulai menjadi tren
menurunkan. Minggu ini konsensus melihat Klaim Awal sebesar 210 ribu vs. 214 ribu sebelumnya,
sementara tidak ada konsensus untuk Klaim Berkelanjutan meskipun rilis sebelumnya sudah terlihat
peningkatan menjadi 1833K vs. 1806K sebelumnya.

PMI Manufaktur ISM AS diperkirakan akan dirilis
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 sebelumnya.
Minggu lalu, S&P
PMI Manufaktur Global
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
sejak Oktober 2022. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Jumat

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in Desember
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
terlihat di 0.3% vs 0.4% sebelumnya. The last report had some notable underlying
kelemahan with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Sumber: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/