Permintaan terhadap kredit penggantian kerugian karbon diperkirakan akan meningkat dalam beberapa dekade mendatang karena perusahaan-perusahaan berupaya mencapai target net-zero mereka dan pemerintah berupaya mendorong investasi pada penyerap karbon alami dan teknologi emisi negatif. Namun ketidakpastian seputar pasokan kredit yang kredibel dan peraturan di sektor ini membuat sulit untuk memprediksi bagaimana pasar akan berkembang.
Itulah kesimpulan dari laporan baru minggu lalu dari firma riset berpengaruh BloombergNEF, yang merinci bagaimana harga penggantian kerugian karbon bisa mencapai $120/ton atau serendah $47/ton pada tahun 2050.
Harga penyeimbangan karbon (carbon offset) telah meningkat selama setahun terakhir, seiring dengan upaya perusahaan-perusahaan untuk mendapatkan kredit dari proyek-proyek yang kredibel untuk membantu mencapai target net-zero mereka. Pengembang proyek telah berjuang untuk memenuhi peningkatan permintaan mengingat siklus perencanaan dan pengembangan yang panjang untuk sebagian besar proyek pengurangan emisi berbasis alam.
However, BNEF’s inaugural “Long-Term Carbon Offset Outlook 2022” report said the extent to which price increases continue will depend to a large extent on new rules and standards that are expected to be introduced to govern the market and determine which types of offsets are eligible to count towards net-zero targets.
“Should all types of offsets continue to be permitted, including those which avoid emissions that would otherwise occur, the market will be oversupplied with largely worthless credits, thereby driving down prices and attracting criticism around quality,” BNEF said. “A jump in corporate demand, specifically from heavy-emitting industries with no alternatives to offsets, could bridge this gap and lead to moderate increases in prices, but many companies are hesitant to invest further in offsets.”
No matter the scenario, corporations and other entities looking to buy carbon offsets shouldn’t expect them to be a get-out-of-jail-free card for much longer.
Sebaliknya, laporan tersebut memperkirakan bahwa jika pasar dibatasi hanya pada penyeimbangan karbon yang menghilangkan, menyimpan atau menyerap karbon – seperti yang diserukan oleh semakin banyak penggiat dan pelaku bisnis – maka kemungkinan besar pasokan tidak akan cukup untuk memenuhi permintaan, sehingga menyebabkan kenaikan harga jangka pendek yang signifikan dan merusak likuiditas.
“If the market evolves to primarily help countries achieve their climate targets rather than companies — a possibility outlined at COP26 — it will soften this supply shortfall,” the report adds. “Yet, this is still not ideal for the long-term success of carbon offsets.”
Kyle Harrison, head of sustainability research at BloombergNEF and the lead author of the report, said the sector was destined to face “growing pains in the coming years as stakeholders try to understand how to sustainably grow the carbon offset market and determine who it will serve.”
“If done correctly, their patience could be rewarded with a market valued at more than $550 billion by mid-century,” he said. “Suppliers, buyers of offsets, traders and investors will need to balance what is idealistic and what is realistic. Otherwise, they risk the offset market burning out just as it’s getting started.”
Laporan ini memodelkan prospek pasar penggantian kerugian karbon dalam tiga skenario: skenario pasar sukarela, skenario SBTI (Inisiatif Target Berbasis Sains), dan skenario hibrida. Dalam skenario ini, harga offset berkisar antara $11-$215/ton pada tahun 2030, naik dari rata-rata hanya $2.50 pada tahun 2020, sebelum menyempit menjadi $47-$120/ton pada tahun 2050. Harga tetap terendah dalam skenario pasar sukarela dan tertinggi dalam skenario pasar sukarela. diatur oleh target emisi berbasis ilmu pengetahuan.
BNEF said that under the voluntary market scenario low prices would give companies flexibility to meet their sustainability goals, but such an approach would subsequently undermine businesses’ ability to drive true additional decarbonization and invite criticism over whether offsets are really delivering promised emissions savings.
In contrast, the SBTI scenario would limits the supply of credits to removal offsets such as reforestation and nascent technologies such as direct air capture. BNEF said such an approach would address the supply glut seen in the voluntary market scenario, but could result in “overcompensating” with some beneficial projects locked out from the market and significant supply constraints leading to offset credit prices shooting up to $224/ton by 2029.
“No matter the scenario, corporations and other entities looking to buy carbon offsets shouldn’t expect them to be a get-out-of-jail-free card for much longer,” said Harrison. “As the market matures — which it will — and processes are put in place to make offsets resemble a traditional commodity, prices will inevitably rise and companies will need to prioritize their gross emissions more than ever.”
Sumber: https://www.greenbiz.com/article/carbon-offset-market-faces-uncertain-long-term-outlook
