Dengan suku bunga yang diperkirakan akan turun pada tahun 2024, real estate – sektor yang disukai karena pembayaran pendapatannya yang stabil – dapat mengalami kenaikan di tahun baru. The real estate sector in the S & P 500 ended 2023 with a gain of more than 8%, sharply underperforming the broad market index’s 24% advance. Meningkatnya suku bunga merupakan hambatan bagi segmen pasar ini, karena hal ini tidak hanya meningkatkan biaya pinjaman untuk dana perwalian investasi real estat, namun juga membuat aset tersebut kurang menarik bagi investor yang mencari pendapatan dibandingkan dengan Treasurys, misalnya. Don’t forget that last year, investors could earn yields upward of 5% just by plunking money into a certificate of deposit or stashing it in a money market fund or Treasury bills. Kini setelah Federal Reserve memperkirakan tiga kali penurunan suku bunga pada tahun 2024, REITs dapat melihat peningkatan minat investor, sehingga meningkatkan harga saham mereka serta pendapatannya. “I think REIT prices will go up if we have stable rates — you will have people rotate back into the sector,” said Morningstar analyst Kevin Brown. “When rates are low, a lot of income-oriented investors see that REIT dividend as very attractive, and they are willing to take the risks associated with equity investment to have this dividend payment.” Indeed, real estate was the top sector in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 17.6%, ending with a one-month pop of nearly 8% in December alone. Pergerakan ini bertepatan dengan periode penurunan substansial pada imbal hasil Treasury 10-tahun, yang mencapai 5% pada level tertingginya di bulan Oktober dan mengakhiri tahun ini di atas 3.8%. Perhatian yang tajam Tren bekerja dari rumah pasca-Covid dan lambatnya kembali ke tempat kerja telah menjadi hambatan bagi REITs kantor. The Kastle Systems’ ” Back to Work ” barometer, which measures office occupancy in 10 major U.S. kota, mencapai 51.1% pada bulan Desember. 18, turun dari 51.6% pada minggu sebelumnya. Kesulitan masih menghantui REIT perkantoran pada tahun 2024, menurut Jefferies, namun kondisinya diperkirakan akan membaik. “While we expect [occupancy] declines across roughly half our coverage in ’24, we expect the pace of declines to slow, which should provide a tailwind for sentiment,” analyst Peter Abramowitz wrote in a Monday report. Jefferies netral di sektor perkantoran REIT tetapi telah menaikkan peringkat Boston Properties menjadi beli dari ditahan. BXP 1Y mountain Boston Properties’ performance over last 12 months “We see BXP as an attractive play for relative multiple expansion vs. peers, given its status as an industry bellwether, with one of the highest-quality portfolios in the space and stability in its earnings outlook,” the firm said. Boston Properties benefits from its “modern portfolio” in the coastal office REIT industry, with the buildings having a weighted average age of 15.7 years, compared to 22.7 years for all public REITs, Jefferies said. Pada gilirannya, hal ini akan mengarah pada stabilitas lebih lanjut dalam prospek tingkat hunian. Jefferies’ target price of $80 reflects 14% upside from Friday’s close. Saham menghasilkan 5.4%. Tiga belas dari 21 analis yang meliput Boston Properties menilai hal tersebut bertahan, dan target harga konsensus memperkirakan penurunan sekitar 5% mulai saat ini, menurut LSEG, yang sebelumnya dikenal sebagai Refinitiv. Spotting long-term trends Even as a lower rate environment is beneficial for REITs, Morningstar’s Brown sees one corner of the sector likely to get a long-term boost from emerging demographic trends: the senior housing and health space. Tingkat hunian perumahan lansia adalah 84.4% pada kuartal ketiga tahun 2023, menurut Pusat Investasi Nasional untuk Perumahan & Perawatan Lansia. That’s up more than 6 percentage points from the pandemic low of 77.8%, but it’s still off from the pre-pandemic occupancy rate of 87.1%. Pada saat yang sama, generasi baby boomer menua dengan cepat, dengan anggota kelompok tertua akan berusia 80 tahun pada tahun 2026. “That turns into demand for these facilities,” said Brown. He predicts that over the next three to four years, demand will outpace supply, “and that will translate to occupancy being back at pre-pandemic levels — and maybe exceeding that and getting into the 90% range.” To play that trend, Brown highlighted Welltower and Ventas . “I think they will see high growth for many years to come.” Welltower, which invests in senior housing operators, pays a dividend yield of 2.7%, while Ventas yields 3.6%. JPMorgan’s Anthony Paolone upgraded his rating on Welltower to overweight from neutral in December, pointing to Welltower’s disclosure of a “significant step-up in the pace of acquisition activity, with $3B closed through October and another $3B in process.” He also raised his 2024 year-end target price to $99 from $92, suggesting upside of nearly 10% from Friday’s close. Dua belas dari 18 analis yang meliput Welltower menilainya sebagai pembelian atau pembelian kuat, menurut LSEG, dan target harga konsensus menyiratkan kenaikan lebih dari 3% dari level saat ini. Ventas menerima peringkat beli atau beli kuat dari 60% analis yang meliput saham tersebut, dengan target harga rata-rata menyarankan kenaikan 2% dari sini. A dividend aristocrat in the spotlight For 2024, Morningstar’s Brown likes Realty Income , a triple net lease REIT. Dalam perjanjian sewa bersih tiga kali lipat, penyewa bertanggung jawab atas pemeliharaan, sewa, pajak properti, dan premi asuransi. “They simply collect the rent check from their tenant, otherwise everything else about the property is on the tenant,” said Brown, noting that Realty Income’s tenants include pharmacies and gas stations. Realty Income memberikan hasil dividen sebesar 5.3%. It is also a member of the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, meaning it’s a stock that has increased its dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years. “They are a steady rent collecting company, and that is good if we are going into a sort of potential slowdown or recession,” Brown said. Hampir separuh analis yang meliput Pendapatan Realti menilainya sebagai pembelian atau pembelian kuat, memperkirakan kenaikan lebih dari 5%, menurut LSEG.