چشم انداز هفتگی بازار (29-02 فوریه) | فارکسلایو

رویدادهای نزدیک:

• سه شنبه: ژاپن
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  اعتماد به نفس.
• چهار شنبه: BoJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• پنج شنبه: چین
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• جمعه:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

سه شنبه

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the آخر
گزارش شگفت زده به جنبه منفی با هر دو
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. خواهد بود
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

اعتماد مصرف کننده ایالات متحده بوده است
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
به طور شگفت انگیزی در ماه دسامبر به سطوح قبلی از ماه جولای جهش کرد. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see بازار کار.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in دسامبر.

چهار شنبه

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% قبلی,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
خوب. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% قبلی.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where تغذیه
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

پنج شنبه

پیش‌بینی می‌شود شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده در منطقه یورو 2.8 درصد باشد.
vs. 2.9% قبلی,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. بازار
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
تابستان. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the نیروی کار
بازار and wage growth but a surprisingly
داغ CPI
گزارش. علاوه بر این، خرده فروشی
حراجی saw a big plunge in December while
la PMI
در ژانویه بهبود یافته است. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

ادعاهای بیکاری در ایالات متحده همچنان یکی است
یکی از مهم‌ترین نسخه‌های هر هفته، زیرا نشان‌دهنده زمان‌بندی آن است
وضعیت بازار کار ادعاهای اولیه همچنان در اطراف چرخه شناور هستند
پایین آمد، در حالی که مطالبات مستمر پس از رسیدن به یک چرخه جدید شروع به روند کرد
کاهش. این هفته اجماع ادعاهای اولیه را در 210K در مقابل 214K مشاهده می کند قبلی,
در حالی که هیچ اتفاق نظری برای Continuing Claims وجود ندارد اگرچه نسخه قبلی شاهد آن بود
افزایش به 1833K در مقابل 1806K قبلی.

پیش بینی می شود PMI تولید ISM ایالات متحده باشد
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 قبلی.
هفته گذشته، S&P
Global Manufacturing PMI
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
از اکتبر 2022. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

جمعه

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in دسامبر
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
0.3% در مقابل 0.4% قبل مشاهده می شود. The last report had some notable underlying
نقاط ضعف with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• منبع: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/