Kuna 2024. aastal peaksid intressimäärad langema, võib kinnisvara – sektori, mida armastatakse oma püsivate sissetulekute maksmise tõttu – uuel aastal tõusta. The real estate sector in the S & P 500 ended 2023 with a gain of more than 8%, sharply underperforming the broad market index’s 24% advance. Tõusvad intressimäärad takistasid seda turusegmenti, kuna need mitte ainult ei suurenda kinnisvarainvesteeringute investeerimisfondide laenukulusid, vaid muudavad vara näiteks riigikassaga võrreldes vähem atraktiivseks sissetulekut otsivatele investoritele. Don’t forget that last year, investors could earn yields upward of 5% just by plunking money into a certificate of deposit or stashing it in a money market fund or Treasury bills. Nüüd, kui Föderaalreserv on 2024. aastal langetanud kolm intressimäära, võib REIT-ide huvi näha investorite huvi tõusu, mis tõstab lisaks sissetulekutele ka nende aktsiahindu. “I think REIT prices will go up if we have stable rates — you will have people rotate back into the sector,” said Morningstar analyst Kevin Brown. “When rates are low, a lot of income-oriented investors see that REIT dividend as very attractive, and they are willing to take the risks associated with equity investment to have this dividend payment.” Indeed, real estate was the top sector in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 17.6%, ending with a one-month pop of nearly 8% in December alone. Liikumised langesid kokku 10-aastase riigikassa tootluse olulise jahenemise perioodiga, mis ületas oktoobris oma kõrgeimal tasemel 5% ja lõpetas aasta veidi üle 3.8%. Terav silm Covidi-järgne kodust töötamise trend ja aeglane tagasipöördumine töökohale on pidurdanud kontori REIT-e. The Kastle Systems’ ” Back to Work ” barometer, which measures office occupancy in 10 major U.S. linnades, oli detsembris 51.1%. 18, langedes eelmise nädala 51.6%-lt. Jefferiesi sõnul on büroo REIT-idel 2024. aastal endiselt raskusi, kuid tingimused peaksid paranema. “While we expect [occupancy] declines across roughly half our coverage in ’24, we expect the pace of declines to slow, which should provide a tailwind for sentiment,” analyst Peter Abramowitz wrote in a Monday report. Jefferies on kontori REIT-sektori suhtes neutraalne, kuid on tõstnud oma reitingut Boston Propertiesis, et osta ootel. BXP 1Y mountain Boston Properties’ performance over last 12 months “We see BXP as an attractive play for relative multiple expansion vs. peers, given its status as an industry bellwether, with one of the highest-quality portfolios in the space and stability in its earnings outlook,” the firm said. Boston Properties benefits from its “modern portfolio” in the coastal office REIT industry, with the buildings having a weighted average age of 15.7 years, compared to 22.7 years for all public REITs, Jefferies said. See omakorda toob kaasa selle täituvuse väljavaate edasise stabiilsuse. Jefferies’ target price of $80 reflects 14% upside from Friday’s close. Aktsia tootlus on 5.4%. LSEG, endise nimega Refinitiv, andmetel hindab Boston Propertiesi 21-st analüütikust 5 seda kinniseks ja konsensuslikud hinnaeesmärgid nõuavad siit umbes XNUMX% langust. Spotting long-term trends Even as a lower rate environment is beneficial for REITs, Morningstar’s Brown sees one corner of the sector likely to get a long-term boost from emerging demographic trends: the senior housing and health space. Riigi eakate eluaseme ja hoolduse investeerimiskeskuse andmetel oli eakate eluasemete täituvus 84.4. aasta kolmandas kvartalis 2023%. That’s up more than 6 percentage points from the pandemic low of 77.8%, but it’s still off from the pre-pandemic occupancy rate of 87.1%. Samal ajal vananevad beebibuumi põlvkonnad kiiresti ning kohordi vanimad liikmed saavad 80. aastal 2026-aastaseks. “That turns into demand for these facilities,” said Brown. He predicts that over the next three to four years, demand will outpace supply, “and that will translate to occupancy being back at pre-pandemic levels — and maybe exceeding that and getting into the 90% range.” To play that trend, Brown highlighted Welltower and Ventas . “I think they will see high growth for many years to come.” Welltower, which invests in senior housing operators, pays a dividend yield of 2.7%, while Ventas yields 3.6%. JPMorgan’s Anthony Paolone upgraded his rating on Welltower to overweight from neutral in December, pointing to Welltower’s disclosure of a “significant step-up in the pace of acquisition activity, with $3B closed through October and another $3B in process.” He also raised his 2024 year-end target price to $99 from $92, suggesting upside of nearly 10% from Friday’s close. LSEG andmetel hindavad Welltoweri 18-st analüütikust 3 seda ostuks või tugevaks ostuks ning konsensuslikud hinnaeesmärgid näitavad praegusest tasemest enam kui XNUMX% tõusu. Ventas sai 60% aktsiat katnud analüütikutelt ostu- või tugeva ostureitingud, kusjuures keskmine hinnasiht viitab siit 2% tõusule. A dividend aristocrat in the spotlight For 2024, Morningstar’s Brown likes Realty Income , a triple net lease REIT. Kolmekordse netorendilepingu korral vastutavad üürnikud hoolduse, üüri, kinnisvaramaksude ja kindlustusmaksete eest. “They simply collect the rent check from their tenant, otherwise everything else about the property is on the tenant,” said Brown, noting that Realty Income’s tenants include pharmacies and gas stations. Realty Income maksab dividenditootlust 5.3%. It is also a member of the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, meaning it’s a stock that has increased its dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years. “They are a steady rent collecting company, and that is good if we are going into a sort of potential slowdown or recession,” Brown said. Peaaegu pooled kinnisvaratulu hõlmavatest analüütikutest hindavad seda ostuks või tugevaks ostuks, nõudes LSEG-i kohta rohkem kui 5% tõusu.