Bitcoin põleb

Ajatempel: 26. märts 2022 kell 3
Allikasõlm: 1235662

The ethos of living frugally and investing wisely only gets better when applied to a bitcoin standard.

Mis on tulekahju?

Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) on liikumine, mis on keskendunud äärmuslikule säästmisele ja investeeringutele, mille eesmärk on võimaldada inimestel pensionile jääda palju varem, kui tavapäraste strateegiate eesmärk on.

Äärmiselt kokkuhoidlikkus on FIRE tuumaks. Pooldajate eesmärk on säästa märkimisväärseid summasid oma sissetulekust – paljudel juhtudel üle 50%. Tavaliselt saavutatakse see distsiplineeritud keskendumise kaudu kulude vähendamisele. Sissetulekute suurendamist soodustatakse, kuid tunnistatakse vähem kontrollitavaks kui kulutuste halastamatu kärpimine.

Kui säästueesmärk on saavutatud, elavad pensionärid väikestest perioodilistest väljamaksetest. Enamik kohaldaks “4% rule” või midagi sarnast, et arvutada oma säästueesmärki ja turvalisi väljamaksesummasid. Säästud investeeritakse tavaliselt peaaegu täielikult aktsiaindeksifondidesse.

FIRE kohta on saadaval tohutul hulgal teavet, mida ei tasu siin korrata. Saate ise uurida, alustades võib-olla ühest populaarseimast FIRE blogijast – Härra Rahavuntsid.

Hea: TULI ja vabadus

The FIRE movement has a lot going for it. Its biggest strengths stem from the low time preference behavior it encourages, much like bitcoin. FIRE proponents are willing to sacrifice immediate expenditure and make lifestyle compromises for the potential of increased future returns (by compounding savings) that will later enable a lifestyle of freedom. FIRE’s extreme frugality pairs well with minimalism and there is a degree of overlap between these movements. A common thread is the desire for freedom in its many forms — again something familiar to many bitcoiners. A minimalist lifestyle and mentality can provide a psychological sense of freedom well before retirement is achieved. Your possessions stop owning you and you can focus on the things you value most, even if you haven’t yet won complete control over your time.

The FIRE community is also ruthless at reducing management fees on their investments, almost always seeking out the lowest-cost options. They’ll be pleased to learn that bitcoin can be stored virtually for free in a fully self-sovereign manner in perpetuity. Even the lowest cost Vanguard or BlackRock equities ETF will be more expensive than holding the equivalent dollar value in bitcoin.

Halb: see ei pruugi kaua töötada

FIRE pooldajad investeerivad tavaliselt peaaegu kõik oma säästud aktsiaindeksifondidesse. See võib olla probleem, kui keskpangad lülitavad rahaprinteri välja, nagu näitab S&P 500 graafik, mis on vääringustatud USD M2 rahapakkumises, mis näitab põhimõtteliselt ühtlast jõudlust mitme aastakümne jooksul:

Pildi allikas: Tradingview.com

FIRE proponents’ calculations could stop working if the fiat currency system fails and hyperbitcoinization arrives. As most bitcoiners know already, kõik on olnud nulli, millal hinnaga bitcoinis, Sealhulgas S&P 500.

The Best Of Both Worlds: Bitcoin On FIRE

“I don’t think there is a single person with a negative opinion on bitcoin who has spent 100 hours studying it.” – Michael Saylor

Like all asset owners, the FIRE movement has been a beneficiary of the fiat standard. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it …

But perhaps if FIRE proponents did their 100 hours they may find an incredible alignment between bitcoin and their personal values, as well as discovering investment fundamentals that are nearly bulletproof and make bitcoin the ideal savings vehicle.

Common critiques of bitcoin by the FIRE community are no different from those dished up by traditional finance circles over the past decade: bitcoin has no intrinsic value, it produces no cash flows, it is too volatile. Even if you accept these arguments as being deal-breakers to implementing a FIRE strategy (I don’t and I doubt most will after their 100 hours), they are all blown out of the water simply by bitcoin’s superior kogu tootlus.

It’s often said to be sacrosanct to sell bitcoin and I generally accept holding for as long as possible and supporting your lifestyle through productive work is likely to be the safest strategy for most people. However, retiring early and drawing down on your bitcoin holdings periodically into perpetuity will be mathematically possible for many, both sooner than they might imagine and before hyperbitcoinization. It simply requires bitcoin’s growth rate to exceed that of your withdrawals and inflation. As Greg Foss ütleb: "See on lihtsalt matemaatika."

Soovitan teil oma numbreid juhtida (igaühe olukord on erinev ja see pole finantsnõuanne). Kui vajate abi väga lihtsa arvutustabelimalli osas, võtke ühendust via Twitter.

Bitcoin’s historical total return performance has been incredible. Its 10-aastane liit-aastane kasvumäär (CAGR) on 200%. Kuid selle kasvav tähtaeg võib lõppkokkuvõttes põhjustada pikemaid tsükleid madalama tootlusega (õiglaselt tuleb öelda, et žürii on sellest endiselt väljas!). Olenemata sellest, 200% annab a osa vingerdusruumist, kui arvestada S&P 500 10 year CAGR is ~13%. When running your numbers it would be prudent to build in your own buffers (for example, assume lower bitcoin returns in the future and/or higher rates of inflation into your expenses).

Need, kes on julged ja usaldavad matemaatikat, leiavad, et fiati puhul on vaja oluliselt madalamat algbilanssi võrreldes traditsiooniliste FIRE tehnikatega.

Bitcoin’s total return potential is also the best defense against volatility when retiring on a bitcoin standard in a fiat world. However, it may also be prudent to ensure withdrawals are regular (for example weekly or monthly) as you naturally wouldn’t want lumpier sales to coincide with periods of increased downside volatility in the bitcoin price. Psychologically this can be a difficult process to manage. A disciplined and consistent approach to sales – regardless of short-term price action – could help alleviate this tension. It’s essentially the opposite to buying bitcoin using dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategies (without the help of automated services).

For retired Bitcoiners from the Michael Saylor school who agree bitcoin will increase in value “… forever Laura” (my view too), delaying sales as much as possible will likely perform better over longer time frames. It just comes with more potential for anxiety and human error.

In conclusion, the typical FIRE template is not necessarily broken, but I contend there could be a better way for that movement. Simply replacing equity index funds with bitcoin (even in part) has the potential to significantly accelerate their path to freedom.

For existing Bitcoiners, running some basic numbers on retirement is always worth doing, even if you never intend to sell your bitcoin and would love to work forever. At the very least, afterwards you might feel like you aren’t short bitcoin … for a day or two!

See on John Tuldi külalispostitus. Avaldatud arvamused on täielikult nende omad ja ei pruugi kajastada BTC Inc või Bitcoin ajakiri.

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