Nõudlus süsinikdioksiidi kompenseerimise ühikute järele peaks järgmistel aastakümnetel hüppeliselt kasvama, kuna ettevõtted püüavad täita oma null-eesmärke ja valitsused püüavad julgustada investeeringuid looduslikesse süsiniku neeldajatesse ja negatiivsete heitmete tehnoloogiatesse. Kuid ebakindlus usaldusväärsete laenude pakkumise ja sektori regulatiivse korra ümber muudab turu arengu ennustamise raskeks.
See on mõjuka uuringufirma BloombergNEF eelmisel nädalal avaldatud uue aruande järeldus, milles kirjeldatakse, kuidas süsinikdioksiidi kompensatsioonihinnad võivad 120. aastaks ulatuda 47 dollarini tonni kohta või 2050 dollarini tonni kohta.
Süsinikdioksiidi kompenseerimise hinnad on viimase aasta jooksul tõusnud, kuna ettevõtted on püüdnud usaldusväärsetelt projektidelt krediiti hankida, et aidata saavutada oma null-eesmärke. Projekti arendajad on näinud vaeva, et rahuldada suurenenud nõudlust, võttes arvesse enamiku looduspõhiste heitkoguste vähendamise projektide pikad planeerimis- ja arendustsüklid.
However, BNEF’s inaugural “Long-Term Carbon Offset Outlook 2022” report said the extent to which price increases continue will depend to a large extent on new rules and standards that are expected to be introduced to govern the market and determine which types of offsets are eligible to count towards net-zero targets.
“Should all types of offsets continue to be permitted, including those which avoid emissions that would otherwise occur, the market will be oversupplied with largely worthless credits, thereby driving down prices and attracting criticism around quality,” BNEF said. “A jump in corporate demand, specifically from heavy-emitting industries with no alternatives to offsets, could bridge this gap and lead to moderate increases in prices, but many companies are hesitant to invest further in offsets.”
No matter the scenario, corporations and other entities looking to buy carbon offsets shouldn’t expect them to be a get-out-of-jail-free card for much longer.
Vastupidiselt sellele ennustab aruanne, et kui turg piirdub ainult kompensatsioonidega, mis eemaldavad, säilitavad või siduvad süsinikku – nagu on nõudnud üha rohkem kampaania tegijaid ja ettevõtteid –, siis tõenäoliselt ei jätku nõudlusega sammu pidamiseks piisavalt pakkumist, mis toob kaasa olulised lähiaja hinnatõusud ja likviidsuse kahjustamine.
“If the market evolves to primarily help countries achieve their climate targets rather than companies — a possibility outlined at COP26 — it will soften this supply shortfall,” the report adds. “Yet, this is still not ideal for the long-term success of carbon offsets.”
Kyle Harrison, head of sustainability research at BloombergNEF and the lead author of the report, said the sector was destined to face “growing pains in the coming years as stakeholders try to understand how to sustainably grow the carbon offset market and determine who it will serve.”
“If done correctly, their patience could be rewarded with a market valued at more than $550 billion by mid-century,” he said. “Suppliers, buyers of offsets, traders and investors will need to balance what is idealistic and what is realistic. Otherwise, they risk the offset market burning out just as it’s getting started.”
Aruandes modelleeritakse süsinikdioksiidi kompenseerimise turu väljavaateid kolme stsenaariumi alusel: vabatahtlik turustsenaarium, SBTI (Science Based Targets – algatus) ja hübriidstsenaarium.. Stsenaariumide kohaselt jäävad tasaarvestushinnad vahemikku 11–215 dollarit tonni kohta 2030. aastal, võrreldes 2.50. aasta keskmise hinnaga vaid 2020 dollariga, enne kui ahenemine 47. aastal langeb 120–2050 dollarini tonni kohta. Hinnad jäävad vabatahtliku turu stsenaariumi korral madalaimaks ja on turu tingimustes kõrgeimad mida reguleerivad teaduspõhised heitkoguste eesmärgid.
BNEF said that under the voluntary market scenario low prices would give companies flexibility to meet their sustainability goals, but such an approach would subsequently undermine businesses’ ability to drive true additional decarbonization and invite criticism over whether offsets are really delivering promised emissions savings.
In contrast, the SBTI scenario would limits the supply of credits to removal offsets such as reforestation and nascent technologies such as direct air capture. BNEF said such an approach would address the supply glut seen in the voluntary market scenario, but could result in “overcompensating” with some beneficial projects locked out from the market and significant supply constraints leading to offset credit prices shooting up to $224/ton by 2029.
“No matter the scenario, corporations and other entities looking to buy carbon offsets shouldn’t expect them to be a get-out-of-jail-free card for much longer,” said Harrison. “As the market matures — which it will — and processes are put in place to make offsets resemble a traditional commodity, prices will inevitably rise and companies will need to prioritize their gross emissions more than ever.”
Allikas: https://www.greenbiz.com/article/carbon-offset-market-faces-uncertain-long-term-outlook
