Perspectivas semanales del mercado (29-02 de febrero) | Forexlive

PRÓXIMOS EVENTOS:

• Martes: Japon
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Confianza.
• Miércoles: Banco de Japón
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• JuevesEmpresa: China
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Viernes:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

Martes

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the pasado
reporte sorprendido a la baja con ambas
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. Será
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

La confianza del consumidor estadounidense ha sido
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
saltó sorprendentemente en diciembre a los niveles más recientes desde julio. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see el mercado laboral.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in Diciembre.

Miércoles

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% antes,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
bien. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% antes.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where Fed
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

Jueves

Se espera que el IPC interanual de la eurozona sea del 2.8%
vs 2.9% antes,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Al mercado
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
verano. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the labor
mercado and wage growth but a surprisingly
calientes IPC
informe. Además, el Mercado
Ventas saw a big plunge in December while
las PMIs
mejoró en enero. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

Las solicitudes de desempleo en EE.UU. siguen siendo una
de los lanzamientos más importantes cada semana, ya que es un indicador más oportuno en el
estado del mercado laboral. Las reclamaciones iniciales siguen rondando el ciclo
mínimos, mientras que las solicitudes continuas después de alcanzar un nuevo máximo del ciclo comenzaron a tener tendencia
inferior. Esta semana el consenso ve las solicitudes iniciales en 210 frente a 214 antes,
Si bien no hay consenso para las reclamaciones continuas, aunque en el comunicado anterior se vio
un aumento a 1833K frente a 1806K antes.

Se espera el PMI manufacturero ISM de EE. UU.
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 antes.
La semana pasada, el S & P
PMI manufacturero mundial
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
desde el 2022 de octubre. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Viernes

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in Diciembre
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
se ve en 0.3% frente al 0.4% anterior. The last report had some notable underlying
debilidades with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Fuente: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/