India is seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier after Russia’s ability to supply munitions and spares was hobbled by the war in Ukraine, but must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China, Indian sources said.

The world’s biggest arms importer is slowly turning West as the United States looks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain an ascendant China by weaning the South Asian nation off a traditional dependence on Russia.

Russia supplied 65% of India’s weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.

“We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. “That would be a red line for Washington.”

That view comes despite Moscow’s offers, described by four Indian government sources, among them a senior security official who recently retired, as including platforms such as the most advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the added fillip of joint manufacturing in India.

Las cuatro fuentes hablaron bajo condición de anonimato para discutir un tema delicado.

Los ministerios de Asuntos Exteriores y de Defensa de India y Rusia no respondieron a solicitudes de comentarios.

Rusia ha instado públicamente a la India a intensificar sus vínculos de defensa, pero el primer ministro Narendra Modi ha centrado su atención en la producción nacional con tecnología occidental, dijeron expertos y funcionarios.

Such efforts would better fit Modi’s “Make in India” programme to encourage domestic manufacturing, as he makes a rare bid for a third term in general elections due by May.

India espera gastar casi 100 mil millones de dólares en órdenes de defensa durante la próxima década, ha dicho su ministro de Defensa.

El año pasado, India y Estados Unidos firmaron un acuerdo para que General Electric produzca motores en India para impulsar sus aviones de combate, la primera concesión de este tipo de Estados Unidos a un país que no es un aliado.

They also plan to “fast-track” technology co-operation and co-production in areas ranging from air combat to intelligence, they said at the time.

Further driving India’s ties with the United States is disquiet over China, as their troops are embroiled in a standoff on their Himalayan frontier since 2020, when one of their bloodiest clashes in five decades killed 24 soldiers.

Los vecinos con armas nucleares libraron una guerra en 1962, pero su frontera, de más de 2,000 kilómetros (3,200 millas) de largo, todavía está en disputa.

India debe caminar sobre una delgada línea en sus vínculos con Rusia, como el mayor comprador de sus armas y, desde 2022, uno de los mayores compradores de su petróleo. Detener ese comercio acercaría a Moscú a Beijing, la única otra economía importante con la que trata.

“Arms purchase buys you influence,” said the retired security official. “By shutting them out you make them subservient to China.”

Trade with Russia in energy and other areas would help “keep it as far away as possible from China,” added Unnikrishnan, the analyst.

Russia’s arms exports have largely stabilised since the Ukraine war’s early disruptions, which fuelled concerns about India’s operational readiness, the officials said, but the fears have not entirely dissipated.

“As the Ukraine war stretches, it raises questions if Russia will be able to give us spare parts,” said Swasti Rao, Eurasia expert at the state-run Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. “It is fuelling the diversification.”

India está considerando aviones franceses para su último portaaviones y quiere fabricar submarinos con tecnología francesa, alemana o española, y aviones de combate con motores estadounidenses y franceses, dijeron las fuentes.

“India’s multi-alignment will continue, to straddle ties with Russia and balance it with the West, but it will not be an equal distribution,” Rao said.

El Ministro de Asuntos Exteriores ruso, Sergei Lavrov, hizo el último esfuerzo para lograr más acuerdos de defensa con la India el 27 de diciembre, durante una conferencia de prensa conjunta con su homólogo indio, S. Jaishankar, que estaba de visita en Moscú.

Lavrov said he discussed with Jaishankar prospects for military and technical co-operation, including joint production of weapons, adding that Russia was also ready to support India’s goal of increasing domestic production.

Jaishankar respondió que los lazos eran muy fuertes, con un comercio bilateral en un nivel récord, gracias a acuerdos en energía, fertilizantes y carbón siderúrgico, pero no llegó a mencionar la defensa.

No ha habido avances en un acuerdo de 2015 para que las dos naciones fabriquen conjuntamente helicópteros Kamov Ka-226T en India, de los cuales 200 se destinarán a sus fuerzas de defensa.

En cambio, en 2022, India comenzó a incorporar helicópteros de combate fabricados por la estatal Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

Weapons, from Soviet or Russian-origin tanks to an aircraft carrier and surface-to-air missile systems, make up more than 60% of India’s military hardware.

Nueva Delhi necesitará repuestos rusos para su mantenimiento y reparación durante casi dos décadas, dijeron funcionarios.

Fabrican conjuntamente el misil de crucero BrahMos y planean producir rifles AK-203 en la India.

Pero los contratiempos incluyeron comentarios el año pasado por parte de la Fuerza Aérea India de que Rusia no había podido cumplir su compromiso de entregar una plataforma importante que no identificó.

And there has been more than a year’s delay in Russia’s delivery of parts of an air defence system India bought in 2018 for $5.5 billion, two Indian military officials said.