Med rentesatser, der forventes at falde i 2024, kan fast ejendom - en sektor elsket for sine faste indkomstbetalinger - se opad i det nye år. The real estate sector in the S & P 500 ended 2023 with a gain of more than 8%, sharply underperforming the broad market index’s 24% advance. Stigende renter var en hæmsko for dette segment af markedet, da de ikke kun øger låneomkostningerne for ejendomsinvesteringsforeninger, men de gør også aktivet mindre attraktivt for indkomstsøgende investorer i forhold til for eksempel Treasurys. Don’t forget that last year, investors could earn yields upward of 5% just by plunking money into a certificate of deposit or stashing it in a money market fund or Treasury bills. Nu hvor Federal Reserve har sat tre rentenedsættelser i 2024, kunne REIT'er se en stigning i investorernes interesse, hvilket øger deres aktiekurser ud over indkomsten. “I think REIT prices will go up if we have stable rates — you will have people rotate back into the sector,” said Morningstar analyst Kevin Brown. “When rates are low, a lot of income-oriented investors see that REIT dividend as very attractive, and they are willing to take the risks associated with equity investment to have this dividend payment.” Indeed, real estate was the top sector in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 17.6%, ending with a one-month pop of nearly 8% in December alone. Bevægelserne faldt sammen med en periode med betydelig afkøling af den 10-årige statsrente, som toppede 5 % på sit højeste i oktober og sluttede året med lidt over 3.8 %. Et skarpt øje Post-Covid-tendensen med at arbejde hjemmefra og en langsom tilbagevenden til arbejdspladsen har været en hæmsko for kontorets REIT'er. The Kastle Systems’ ” Back to Work ” barometer, which measures office occupancy in 10 major U.S. byer, lå på 51.1% i december. 18, et fald fra 51.6 % ugen før. Vanskeligheder truer stadig for kontor-REIT'er i 2024, ifølge Jefferies, men forholdene forventes at blive bedre. “While we expect [occupancy] declines across roughly half our coverage in ’24, we expect the pace of declines to slow, which should provide a tailwind for sentiment,” analyst Peter Abramowitz wrote in a Monday report. Jefferies er neutral på kontor REIT-sektoren, men har hævet sin rating på Boston Properties for at købe fra hold. BXP 1Y mountain Boston Properties’ performance over last 12 months “We see BXP as an attractive play for relative multiple expansion vs. peers, given its status as an industry bellwether, with one of the highest-quality portfolios in the space and stability in its earnings outlook,” the firm said. Boston Properties benefits from its “modern portfolio” in the coastal office REIT industry, with the buildings having a weighted average age of 15.7 years, compared to 22.7 years for all public REITs, Jefferies said. Til gengæld vil det føre til yderligere stabilitet i udsigterne for belægning. Jefferies’ target price of $80 reflects 14% upside from Friday’s close. Aktien giver 5.4 pct. Tretten af de 21 analytikere, der dækker Boston Properties, vurderer det som et hold, og konsensusprismål kræver omkring 5% nedadgående herfra, ifølge LSEG, tidligere kendt som Refinitiv. Spotting long-term trends Even as a lower rate environment is beneficial for REITs, Morningstar’s Brown sees one corner of the sector likely to get a long-term boost from emerging demographic trends: the senior housing and health space. Seniorboligbelægningsprocenten var 84.4 % i tredje kvartal af 2023, ifølge National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. That’s up more than 6 percentage points from the pandemic low of 77.8%, but it’s still off from the pre-pandemic occupancy rate of 87.1%. Samtidig ældes babyboomerne hurtigt, og de ældste medlemmer af kohorten fylder 80 i 2026. “That turns into demand for these facilities,” said Brown. He predicts that over the next three to four years, demand will outpace supply, “and that will translate to occupancy being back at pre-pandemic levels — and maybe exceeding that and getting into the 90% range.” To play that trend, Brown highlighted Welltower and Ventas . “I think they will see high growth for many years to come.” Welltower, which invests in senior housing operators, pays a dividend yield of 2.7%, while Ventas yields 3.6%. JPMorgan’s Anthony Paolone upgraded his rating on Welltower to overweight from neutral in December, pointing to Welltower’s disclosure of a “significant step-up in the pace of acquisition activity, with $3B closed through October and another $3B in process.” He also raised his 2024 year-end target price to $99 from $92, suggesting upside of nearly 10% from Friday’s close. Tolv af de 18 analytikere, der dækker Welltower, vurderer det som et køb eller et stærkt køb, ifølge LSEG, og konsensusprismål indebærer en opside på mere end 3 % fra det nuværende niveau. Ventas modtog køb eller stærke købsvurderinger fra 60 % af analytikerne, der dækkede aktien, hvor det gennemsnitlige kursmål tyder på 2 % opad herfra. A dividend aristocrat in the spotlight For 2024, Morningstar’s Brown likes Realty Income , a triple net lease REIT. I en tredobbelt netto lejeaftale er lejerne ansvarlige for vedligeholdelse, husleje, ejendomsskatter og forsikringspræmier. “They simply collect the rent check from their tenant, otherwise everything else about the property is on the tenant,” said Brown, noting that Realty Income’s tenants include pharmacies and gas stations. Realty Income giver et udbytte på 5.3%. It is also a member of the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, meaning it’s a stock that has increased its dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years. “They are a steady rent collecting company, and that is good if we are going into a sort of potential slowdown or recession,” Brown said. Næsten halvdelen af analytikerne, der dækker Realty Income, vurderer det som et køb eller et stærkt køb, hvilket kræver en opside på mere end 5 % pr. LSEG.