ہفتہ وار مارکیٹ آؤٹ لک (15-19 جنوری)

افلاطون کے ذریعہ دوبارہ شائع کیا گیا۔

فالونگ: 0

انے والی تقریبات:

پیر: پی بی او سی
MLF, US Markets closed for MLK Day, BoC Business Outlook Survey.
منگل: برطانیہ
Labour Market report, Canada CPI, Fed’s Waller.
بدھ کے روزچین
Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US
Industrial Production, US NAHB Housing Market Index.
جمعرات:
Australian Labour Market report, ECB Minutes, US Building Permits and
Housing Starts, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.
جمعہجاپان
CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales, US University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment.

پیر

The PBoC will conduct the MLF operation on
Monday and we will see if they decide to lower the rate or keep it unchanged at
2.50٪ وہاں ہے کچھ
توقعات for a 10 bps cut
tomorrow which would set the stage for a cut for the LPR rates as well.
تازہ ترین چینی
افراط زر کے اعداد و شمار continues to show
deflationary pressures which gives the PBoC ample room to ease their policy
مزید.

پی بی سی

منگل

برطانیہ میں بے روزگاری کی شرح متوقع ہے۔
tick higher to 4.3% vs. 4.2% پہلے.
The average earnings excluding bonus are seen at 6.6% vs. 7.3% prior, while
those including bonus are seen at 6.8% vs. 7.2% prior. This report is unlikely
to change anything for the BoE as the central bank continues to support a “wait
and see” approach, but the market’s pricing will certainly be influenced by
کے اعداد و شمار with more to come the following day with the release of the UK CPI
رپورٹ.

یوکے بے روزگاری کی شرح

کینیڈین CPI Y/Y 3.3% متوقع ہے
vs. 3.1% while the M/M measure is seen at -0.3% vs. 0.1% prior. The BoC is
focused on the underlying inflation measures (common, median and trimmed-mean)
and although the rates are getting closer to the 1-3% target range, Governor
Macklem said that they want to see more progress both on inflation and wage
growth fronts. As a reminder, the last reports went in the opposite
direction with underlying افراط زر کی شرح
اقدامات ticking higher and اجرت
اضافہ تیز کرنا

کینیڈا افراط زر کے اقدامات

Given the recent aggressive easing in
financial conditions, it’s worth noting that Fed’s Waller will give a speech at
Brookings on the economy and monetary policy with a Q&A session to follow. Waller
is a key FOMC member because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in
فیڈ کی پالیسی. He was the first one talking about QT in December 2021 and
the first one mentioning rate cuts in November 2023.

Fed’s Waller

بدھ کے روز

UK CPI Y/Y 3.8% بمقابلہ متوقع ہے۔
3.9٪ پہلے,
while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. -0.2% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is
expected at 4.9% vs. 5.1% prior, with no consensus for the M/M figure although
the prior release showed a -0.3% fall. Again, this report will have no
bearing on the February BoE meeting but will certainly affect the market’s
قیمتوں کا تعین with the first cut expected in May and a total of 125 bps of cuts
seen by year-end.

یوکے کور CPI YoY

The US Retail Sales M/M are expected at
0.4٪ بمقابلہ 0.3٪ پہلے,
while the ex-autos measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. Also watch the
Control Group as it’s regarded as a better gauge of consumer spending, and it’s
been beating expectations consistently for several months.

یو ایس ریٹیل سیلز YoY

جمعرات

The Australian Unemployment Rate is
expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% with 18K jobs added in December compared
to 61.5K seen in نومبر.
This report will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing, with a weak report likely increasing rate cuts
expectations after the recent miss in the ماہانہ
آسٹریلیائی سی پی آئی اعداد و شمار.

آسٹریلیا میں بے روزگاری کی شرح

The US Jobless Claims
continue to be one of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier
indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering
around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims after reaching a new cycle high
started to trend lower. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 207K
بمقابلہ 202K پہلے, while there’s no estimate at the
time of writing for Continuing Claims, although the last week’s number was 1834K
بمقابلہ 1868K پہلے۔

امریکی بے روزگاری کے دعوے

جمعہ

جاپانی کور CPI Y/Y متوقع ہے۔
2.3٪ بمقابلہ 2.5٪ پہلے.
The headline inflation measure has been easing steadily in Japan thanks to
energy deflation but the Core-Core measure, which excludes food and energy
prices, has been doing so at a slower pace. The ٹوکیو
سی پی آئی, which is seen as a leading indicator for
National CPI, decreased further recently and the اوسط
نقد آمدنی showed a much slower
than expected growth rate. This has pushed expectations for a normalisation
of monetary policy further away as the conditions the BoJ is looking for are
not materialising.