Haftalık Piyasa Görünümü (29-02 Şubat) | Forexlive

YAKLAŞAN ETKİNLİKLER:

• Salı: Japonya
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Güven.
• Çarşamba: BOJ
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Perşembe: Çin
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Cuma:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

Salı

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the son
rapor olumsuz tarafı şaşırttı her ikisi de
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. Olacak
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

ABD Tüketici Güveni açıklandı
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
şaşırtıcı bir şekilde Aralık ayında Temmuz ayından bu yana en son seviyelere sıçradı. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see işgücü piyasası.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in Aralık.

Çarşamba

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% önceki,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
iyi. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% önceki.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where Fed
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

Perşembe

Euro Bölgesi TÜFE'nin Y/Y %2.8 olması bekleniyor
vs. 2.9% önceki,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Market
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
yaz. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the emek
pazar and wage growth but a surprisingly
Sıcak TÜFE
rapor. Üstelik, Perakende
Satış saw a big plunge in December while
the PMIS
Ocak ayında iyileşti. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

ABD İşsizlik Başvuruları bir olmaya devam ediyor
daha zamanlı bir gösterge olduğu için her hafta en önemli yayınlardan biri
işgücü piyasasının durumu. İlk Talepler döngü etrafında gezinmeye devam ediyor
Yeni bir döngünün zirvesine ulaştıktan sonra Devam Eden Talepler trende başladı
alt. Bu hafta fikir birliği, İlk Başvuruların 210 Bin'e karşı 214 Bin olduğunu gösteriyor önceki,
Devam Eden Talepler konusunda bir fikir birliği olmamasına rağmen önceki sürümde
önceki 1833K'ya kıyasla 1806K'ya artış.

ABD ISM İmalat PMI'ı bekleniyor
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 önceki.
Geçen hafta, S&P
Küresel İmalat PMI'ı
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
Ekim 2022'den beri. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Cuma

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in Aralık
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
öncesinde %0.3'e karşılık %0.4 seviyesinde görülüyor. The last report had some notable underlying
zayıf with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Kaynak: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/