Could Just Three Policy Levers Trigger A Cascade Of Climate Action?

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Smešno bi bilo trditi, da obstaja enostavna rešitev za podnebno krizo. Kot so ugotovili številni komentatorji, ni nobene rešitve za boj proti emisijam ogljika.

Res pa je tudi, da kamor koli pogledate, od nacionalne politike vse do vsakdanjega vedenja posameznikov, obstaja množica razmeroma preprostih popravkov in sprememb, ki bi lahko, če bi vse seštele skupaj, povzročile znatno in trajno zmanjšanje globalnih emisij .

And it is also the case that certain sectors of the economy have a far greater adverse impact on our planet's biosphere than others. So it stands to reason that, focusing decarbonization efforts on just a handful of these carbon-intensive sectors could make an outsized impact to the global transition to net zero. That basic idea hardly amounts to an easy fix, of course, but it does at least offer an effective framework through which to approach the existential risks the global economy faces.

To je v širšem smislu hipoteza, na kateri temelji objavljena velika nova skupna študija by a coterie of experts at the University of Exeter, engineering consultancy Systemiq, the World Resources Institute, and the Bezos Earth Fund. Its eye-catching contention is that concerted action targeted at just three "super-leverage points" could trigger a cascade of decarbonization in sectors of the economy that generate 70 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

Poleg tega bi se izkoriščanje teh treh točk super finančnega vzvoda lahko izkazalo za presenetljivo preprosto. Poročilo trdi, da samo tri politike – mandati za prodajo električnih vozil; pooblastila, ki zahtevajo uporabo zelenega amoniaka za proizvodnjo kmetijskih gnojil; in javno naročanje rastlinskih beljakovin — bi lahko imelo izjemen katalizatorski učinek na prehod na globalno ničelno neto vrednost.

The could drive decarbonization not just within road transport, agriculture and food, but accelerate the shift to net-zero emissions in 10 of the world's highest-emitting sectors.

These three interventions, it argues, could result in huge, wider impacts on the economy, driving decarbonization not just within road transport, agriculture and food, but accelerating the shift to net zero emissions in 10 of the world's highest-emitting sectors.

"With time running out, there is a need to be targeted," said Mark Meldrum, Systemiq partner and a lead author of the report. "Our report spotlights key opportunities to effect change that can produce huge returns in terms of decarbonization. It identifies positive tipping points in the highest-emitting sectors of the global economy, and analyses the conditions required to trigger them. Each super-leverage point crossed raises the chance of crossing others, and could set off a cascade of positive tipping points to steer us away from a climate catastrophe."

The report's rationale is hugely compelling. Accelerating the development and rollout of EVs would not only decarbonize road transport, but also drive down costs for batteries which could help boost renewable energy deployment worldwide. A greater abundance of cheaper, reliable renewable energy could in turn help cut costs and increase capacity for producing green hydrogen, an increasingly attractive solution for decarbonizing steelmaking, shipping and — another identified leverage point — green ammonia in agriculture.

Napredek v tehnologiji električnih vozil bi moral prav tako pomagati pri dobavi električnih čolnov, trajektov, gradbenih strojev in celo letal, kar bo spodbudilo dekarbonizacijo v celotnem prometnem sektorju.

Prelomna točka za to, da električna vozila postanejo najbolj privlačna, cenovno ugodna in dostopna možnost, je v mnogih razvitih gospodarstvih zelo blizu.

Poleg tega je točka preloma, da bodo električna vozila najbolj privlačna, cenovno ugodna in dostopna možnost, v mnogih naprednih gospodarstvih izjemno blizu. Na Kitajskem prodaja in izvoz električnih vozil strmo naraščata, medtem ko na Norveškem že prevladujejo na avtomobilskem trgu. V Združenem kraljestvu in drugih delih Evrope so električna vozila najhitreje rastoči segment avtomobilskega trga, številne države pa so se zavezale, da bodo v naslednjem desetletju popolnoma opustile prodajo vozil na fosilna goriva.

Podobno poročilo trdi, da bi lahko bila obvezna uporaba zelenega amoniaka - proizvedenega z uporabo zelenega vodika, proizvedenega z obnovljivo električno energijo - kot nadomestilo za fosilna goriva, ki se uporabljajo za proizvodnjo kmetijskih gnojil, zelo učinkovit način za zagon širše rasti vodika. trg, trdi poročilo. Vodik z nizko vsebnostjo ogljika se vedno bolj oglašuje kot potencialna rešitev za razogljičenje vrste industrij in procesov, vendar proizvodne zmogljivosti še zdaleč niso povečane, da bi zadovoljile trenutno povpraševanje. Poročilo kot tako nakazuje, da so lahko kmetijska gnojila ključna za sprostitev širšega zelenega trga z amoniakom, s čimer se znižajo stroški za njegovo uporabo v ladijskem prometu, proizvodnji jekla, shranjevanju energije in drugih industrijskih aplikacijah.

Nazadnje poročilo poudarja ogromen potencial rastlinskih beljakovin kot alternativ mesnim izdelkom, pri čemer trdi, da če lahko ti zelenjavni izdelki premagajo živalske beljakovine po ceni, hkrati pa so jim vsaj enaki po okusu in teksturi, bi to lahko spremenilo rabo zemljišč – in zato zmanjšajte emisije toplogrednih plinov – po vsem svetu.

Governments have been reluctant to date to encourage people to eat less meat or introduce policies such as meat taxes. But the report argues that by simply harnessing public procurement to buy more plant-based "meat" alternatives for schools, hospitals, councils and government departments, policymakers could help increase consumer uptake of these products while driving down their costs. If governments and councils switched to plant-based proteins worldwide, it could potentially free up 988 million to 1.9 billion acres of land, the equivalent of 7 to 15 percent of global agricultural land today, the report estimates. That in turn could help massively reduce the incentive for farmers to clear forests to make way for animal agriculture, leaving far more land for wildlife and natural carbon sinks.

Če lahko ti zelenjavni izdelki premagajo živalske beljakovine po ceni, hkrati pa se jim ujemajo vsaj po okusu in teksturi, bi to lahko spremenilo rabo zemljišč – in s tem zmanjšalo emisije toplogrednih plinov – po vsem svetu.

The report's central contention is that the net zero transition is less like a domino effect that heads in a single direction and more like the way a handful of pebbles create multiple ripple effects that can cross the expanse of an entire lake.

"High-emitting sectors of the economy do not exist in isolation — they are deeply interconnected, and zero-emission solutions can influence transitions in multiple sectors simultaneously," explained another of the report's authors, Simon Sharpe, director of the economics at the Climate Champions Team and former deputy director for policy campaigns in the U.K. government's COP26 unit.

There is some recent historical precedent to back this up. The report argues the "tipping point" for wind and solar power has already been reached, with these technologies accounting for more than 75 percent of new global power capacity last year — the result of a journey over the past decade or so that has helped accelerate the decline of the coal industry in the U.S. and the U.K. The maturity of the renewables industry is catalyzing progress on electric vehicles, hydrogen, green buildings, smart technologies and other areas as governments and businesses prepare for an era of clean energy abundance. The report argues that reaching similar tipping points in the adoption of EVs, plant-based proteins and green ammonia could lead to a rapid acceleration in decarbonization efforts right across the economy.

Researchers at the University of Exeter behind the report have long been engaging with the idea of "positive tipping points" for climate action, highlighting in particular the rapid march of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles (EVs), and the ability of these shifts to trigger further "upward scaling tipping cascades" that would then accelerate global adoption.

"For me, this is probably the only way now that we can get the kind of rate of change we think we need in order to hit the target of limiting global warming to well below 2 C[elsius] and somewhere near 1.5 C," climate scientist Professor Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter — and lead author of the report — told us last year. "And I think the same argument would hold for other goals like reversing the decline of biodiversity and trying to become so-called 'nature positive' by 2030. It requires tipping points — self-accelerating change. That's exactly why I put my focus on this, because it can happen and it does indeed happen that way."

The aim is to push the development and deployment of these technologies towards 'tipping points' where they become 'the most affordable, accessible and attractive choice' by 2030.

To je koncept, ki postaja vse bolj priljubljen med oblikovalci politik in poslovnimi voditelji. Na COP26 45 držav, ki pokrivajo 70 odstotkov svetovnega BDP launched the "Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda" initiative, with the aim to crowd together markets, investors and businesses to accelerate the adoption of low-carbon steel, hydrogen, power, agriculture and road transport technologies. The aim is to push the development and deployment of these technologies towards "tipping points" where they become "the most affordable, accessible and attractive choice" by 2030. The hope is that by doing so the net zero transition can create 20 million new jobs and deliver a $16 trillion boost to both emerging and advanced economies. The initiative has continued to build momentum, with dozens of governments worldwide določitev vrste prednostnih ukrepov za posamezne sektorje na podnebnem vrhu COP27 v Egiptu lani v želji, da bi dnevni red napredoval.

Podobno se je samo ta mesec devet vodilnih industrijskih grozdov na Kitajskem, v Indoneziji, na Japonskem, v Španiji in ZDA pridružilo pobudi pod vodstvom Accenture, EPRI in Svetovnega gospodarskega foruma, namenjene izmenjavi najboljših praks in znanja za zmanjšanje emisij v teh težkih industrijskih conah.

Poročilo je zasnovano tako, da podpira takšna prizadevanja in druge pobude, ki si prizadevajo, da bi nizkoogljične rešitve postale preprosta možnost v vsakem sektorju, pravi Lenton.

He and his team are focused on leading a community of researchers working on a full "state of tipping points" report, which will look at both positive socioeconomic tipping points and negative climate tipping points in time for this year's COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai.

"We need to find and trigger positive socioeconomic tipping points if we are to limit the risk from damaging climate tipping points," said Lenton. "This non-linear way of thinking about the climate problem gives plausible grounds for hope: The more that gets invested in socioeconomic transformation, the faster it will unfold — getting the world to ‘net zero' greenhouse gas emissions sooner."

The three levers identified by the report are not the longed-for silver bullets for solving climate change, nor is pulling on them entirely straightforward. Mandates for EVs, green ammonia and plant-based foods sound relatively simple, but such policies still face considerable opposition from vested interests and would require significant investment. But the report highlights how tantalizingly close the world could be to a net zero emissions economy once the tipping points in the transition are reached. The world isn't there yet, but pulling a few levers in the right policy areas could do a lot of the heavy lifting.