Еженедельный обзор рынка (29-02 февраля) | Форекслайв

ПРЕДСТОЯЩИЕ СОБЫТИЯ:

• вторник: Япония
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  Уверенность.
• Wednesday: Банк Японии
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• четверг: Китай
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• пятница:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

вторник

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the последний
отчету удивлен обратной стороной с изоферменты печени
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. Это будет
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

Потребительское доверие в США было
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
неожиданно подскочил в декабре до уровня, последнего с июля.. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see рынок труда.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in Декабрь.

Wednesday

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% предшествующий,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
хорошо. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% предшествующий.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where ФРС
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

четверг

Индекс потребительских цен еврозоны в годовом исчислении ожидается на уровне 2.8%.
vs. 2.9% предшествующий,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. Магазин
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
лето. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the труда
рыночных and wage growth but a surprisingly
горячим индекс потребительских цен
отчет. Более того, Ритейл
Продажа saw a big plunge in December while
домен ИМС
улучшилось в январе. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

Заявки на пособие по безработице в США продолжают оставаться одним из них
из наиболее важных выпусков каждую неделю, поскольку это более своевременный индикатор
состояние рынка труда. Первоначальные претензии продолжают зависать в пределах цикла
минимумов, в то время как Продолжение претензий после достижения нового максимума цикла начало иметь тенденцию
ниже. На этой неделе консенсус видит первоначальные претензии на уровне 210 тыс. против 214 тыс. предшествующий,
хотя в отношении продолжающихся претензий нет единого мнения, хотя в предыдущей версии это было
увеличение до 1833К по сравнению с предыдущим 1806К.

Ожидается индекс деловой активности в производственном секторе (ISM) США.
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 предшествующий.
На прошлой неделе S & P
Мировой производственный PMI
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
с октября 2022 года. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

пятница

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in Декабрь
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
наблюдается на уровне 0.3% против 0.4% ранее. The last report had some notable underlying
слабые with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• Источник: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/