Ulei plutind, aur în ape agitate

Oil drifts lower amid recession risk

The threat of a global recession continues to weigh on oil prices, with widespread monetary tightening over the last couple of days fueling fears of a significant hit to growth. Central banks now appear to accept that a recession is the price to pay for getting a grip on inflation, which could weigh on demand next year.

At the same time, the market still remains tight and OPEC+ is perfectly willing to restrict supply further even as it fails to deliver on quotas it has set itself so far. What’s more, a nuclear deal between the US and Iran looks no closer and Russia’s mobilization could pose a risk to its supply.

As for the price cap that the EU is working hard towards, that’s a big unknown as it may not even get the unanimous support it needs from member states. If it does, there’s no guarantee it will work without the cooperation of those that Russia has been able to lean on since sanctions came in and if it is effective, Russia could reduce supplies and cause a price spike. With that in mind, very little is probably priced in at this point.

Is gold eyeing a correction?

It’s been a choppy week for gold amid all of the central bank tightening and yet it hasn’t really progressed in that time. The break below $1,680 was a big deal but it hasn’t really been the catalyst for anything since. While it hasn’t accelerated lower so far, it does continue to see resistance at $1,680. How long for depends on whether all of this tightening becomes a trigger for a correction in the dollar and maybe yields.

If we do see a corrective move then the next big test may come around $1,730 which was previously a major level of support and then resistance. A break of this would suggest a much deeper correction may be underway. A break below $1,650 on the other hand could be viewed as a secondary confirmation of the initial breakout and a very bearish signal.

Acest articol are doar scop informativ. Nu este sfat de investiții sau o soluție pentru a cumpăra sau vinde titluri de valoare. Opiniile sunt autorii; nu neapărat cea a OANDA Corporation sau a oricăreia dintre filialele, filialele, ofițerii sau directorii săi. Tranzacționarea cu levier este cu risc ridicat și nu este potrivită pentru toți. Ați putea pierde toate fondurile depuse.

Cu sediul la Londra, Craig Erlam s-a alăturat OANDA în 2015 ca analist de piață. Cu mulți ani de experiență ca analist de piață financiară și comerciant, el se concentrează atât pe analiza fundamentală, cât și pe cea tehnică, în timp ce produce comentarii macroeconomice.

Opiniile sale au fost publicate în Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph și International Business Times și apare, de asemenea, ca comentator invitat regulat la BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business și SKY News.

Craig deține calitatea de membru deplin al Societății Analiștilor Tehnici și este recunoscut ca Tehnician Financiar Certificat de Federația Internațională a Analiștilor Tehnici.

Ultimele mesaje ale lui Craig Erlam (vezi toate)