WTL 2023 Summer – Week 7 Recap/Week 8 Preview

by: Wax

After a relatively uneventful Week 7 that saw the rankings stay completely unchanged, we're in store for a treat in Week 8. While I didn't go back and check the schedule for every season, this is easily one of the most entertaining regular season weeks in WTL history.

To start, we have a massive clash between two championship contenders in DKZ and ONSYDE, with Maru vs Oliveira being the opening bout. Then, PSISTORM will fight for their playoff lives vs TL, with new signee Spirit finally eligible to play. There's also a solid mid-table battle between Shopify and ABYDOS, with both teams looking to improve their playoff seeding.

On top of that, the matches that are less interesting on paper have some intriguing twists when you take a closer look. BASILISK might not be guaranteed to stomp Starlight Twinkle, RotterdaM will be making his WTL debut in that match. Also, iG vs Berserker is the darkly humorous 'who's finishing in last place?' match, which should be of great interest to the WTL's most devoted fans.

Scheduling Note: This week's games will be played on June 9th, June 12, and June 13th.

Week 7 Recap

Top 7 teams qualify for the playoffs.
Bottom 2 teams must requalify.
Points are awarded as follows:

• 3 points for a victory in a series that does not require an ace match
  
• 2 points for a victory in a series that requires an ace-match
  
• 1 point for a loss in a series that requires an ace-match
  
• 0 points for a loss in a series that does not require an ace match

Invictus Gaming 1 - 5 BASILISK
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XY decided to forego cheese and go at Serral in honorable macro games™ to start the series, and his valor was rewarded with a one-sided 0-2 loss.

BreakingGG also tried to play Reynor straight-up in their first game, but was predictably outfought in the Roach wars. He then tried a Nydus cheese in game two, but Reynor deflected it to take the 2-0 win and lock in three points for BASILISK.

MacSed managed to salvage a map for Invictus against Trigger, taking the first game of their series by defending his fast expansion against Trigger's one-base all-in. Trigger took a map for himself to end the series, beating MacSed in a mid-game brawl between Gateway armies.

Platinum Heroes 2 - 4 ABYDOS
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Mondo came into the match with a 0-4 record, and looked like he could be the weak link that cost ABYDOS points against a weaker Platinum Heroes side. However, Mondo pulled his weight this time around, getting his first map win of the season with a 1-1 against ShaDoWn.

Mondo got his win immediately, beating ShaDoWn on NeoHumanity with mass Hydra-Ling-Bane before his opponent had sufficient splash damage. Game two followed a peculiar pattern, with Mondo starting off with a Speedling cheese but still somehow finding himself in a late-game standoff fifteen minutes later. Ultimately, Mondo had to tap out to ShaDoWn's golden armada, as he couldn't transition out of his Lurker-based force in time.

Creator then took a 2-0 over Goblin to put his team on match point. Game one was a dizzying Blink-Stalker duel, with both players constantly putting themselves in weird, semi-basetrade situations. Creator was just a bit faster and more decisive with his movements, which gave him the victory in the last of these exchanges. Creator closed out with defense in game two, holding his fast expansion against Goblin's one base Stalker all-in.

NightMare finished the job for ABYDOS by taking a win against DnS on the very next map. The two played an action-packed game on Gresvan, where DnS's proxy-Robo led to much early skirmishing. NightMare came out ahead in those trades (Disruptors!), and was able to compound his lead and force the GG. DnS got himself a tie in the final game, successfully defending against a Cannon + proxy Gateway rush.

Team Liquid 5 - 1 Berserker eSports
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Ace player Clem took point position for Liquid and scored a 2-0 against Spatz to start things off. Game one was over for Spatz within the first few minutes, as he lost 10 Probes to a single Hellion while trying some unsuccessful Adept harassment of his own. Spatz doubled down by going for proxy-Gateway harassment in game two, but Clem shrugged this off to take the 2-0.

SKillous put his team on the verge of victory against DIMAGA, taking game one of their series with Glaive-Adepts and a follow-up Zealot attack. However, the old school Zerg managed to keep his team alive by taking game two, tanking Psi Storms with his face to beat SKillous in true swarm style.

It seemed like Papi had a chance to continue the comeback against MaNa, as he took the lead in game one after holding off MaNa's proxy-Robo cheese. However, he dealt with MaNa's follow-up Immortal drop very poorly, which allowed MaNa to win with an unusual, one-base, two-Robo all-in. With all three points in hand, MaNa took a final win for the road to keep Liquid at #3 in the standings with a +17 map differential.

ONSYDE Gaming 4 - 2 瘦死骆驼 (Starving Camels)
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Note: The actual match order for this series was different from the scheduled match order shown above.
While Ryung and TooDming were originally scheduled to play in the third match of the series, some scheduling tweaks saw the two moved to the top of the broadcast. Ryung got ahead early on both maps with Banshee harassment, which he followed-up with Marine-Tank in game one, and battle-mech in game two to take the 2-0.

In a surprising twist, Ryung's 2-0 actually ended up being quite important for ONSYDE as Maru gave up his first map loss of his season against Firefly. The plucky Protoss stole a map off of Maru in an extremely close basetrade, where his Blink-Stalkers raced Maru's 3-Barracks Marine-Marauder in a destruction derby. While the finish was tight, the lack of Medivacs helped Firefly's Blink-Stalkers barely prevail in the end. Maru got his tying point very quickly in game two, going for a series of proxy-Starport Hellion/Mine drops that completely ravaged Firefly's economy.

Solar closed the series out against Cyan, holding off Oracle-Stalker attacks before counterattacking with Roach-Ravager to take game one. Cyan took the final map with some good Glaive-Adept play, but it was only a moral victory as ONSYDE had already secured the full three points.

Starlight Twinkle 1 - 5 Dragon KaiZi Gaming
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Oliveira got his team off to a strong start with a 2-0 over Cham. Game one was a fairly one-sided beatdown, with Oliveira's bio mopping up Cham's Roach-Ravager army. The second game got a bit hectic after Cham forced a basetrade, but the superior firepower of Oliveira's bio won out once more.

herO quickly made it 3-0 for his team against Nice, with his proxy-Stargate Oracle catching Nice completely off guard and dealing major damage. Nice took a point back in similar fashion as his fast Dark Templar tech took herO by surprise.

Dark locked in the win series victory against ReWhite, smashing the Protoss in game one with mass Mutalisks. He then ran up the score on the final map, winning quickly with a Nydus-Queen-Ling all-in.

Shopify Rebellion 4 - 2 PSISTORM Gaming
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Shopify ace ByuN got his team going by taking down Gerald on NeoHumanity in game one, winning with heavy 3-Barracks pressure while holding off proxy-Oracles. Gerald survived for longer in game two, but ultimately couldn't keep up with ByuN's multi-directional bio attacks and surrendered another GG.

SpeCial started his match against Lambo by channeling ByuN, opening with 2-Barracks and transitioning into non-stop Marine pressure. However, Lambo was held strong on defense, and eventually overpowered SpeCial with his superior tech and economy. SpeCial attempted to go for his signature BC-into-mech in game two, but Lambo had it scouted every step of the way. After defending against harassment and establishing a powerful economy, Lambo ruthlessly busted through SpeCial's defenses before they could be fully entrenched.

That left MaxPax to pick up a rather empty 2-0 victory against Scarlett to finish the day, wielding the 'herO style' Stalker-Oracle strategy expertly in both games. Still, if PSISTORM somehow pulls off a late-season run to make the playoffs, these map points may actually end up mattering.

Weekly MVP: SR.Lambo

There were plenty of 2-0 results in Week 7, but nearly all of them were between a clear favorite and a heavy underdog. Only one 2-0 winner took their victory in a match that I considered to be somewhat challenging: Lambo against SpeCial. Granted, Lambo was a moderate favorite headed into the match—I even picked him to win 2-0. However, with the lack of any more impressive 2-0 on the week, I had to give Lambo the nod.

I did briefly consider giving Firefly the award for stealing a 1-1 against Maru, but I'm pretty reluctant to pick 1-1's over 2-0's. Also, the Camels ended up earning 0 points from the match, and it was hard for me to reward what was ultimately just a moral victory.

Weekly MVP's:

• Week 7: SR.Lambo
  
• Week 6: DKZ.herO
  
• Week 5: Liquid`Clem
  
• Week 4. PH.DnS
  
• Week 3: Everyone on SSLT/瘦死骆驼/Starving Camels
  
• Week 2: ABYDOS.Cure
  
• Week 1: BASILISK.Serral

Preview: Regular Season Week 8

Friday, Jun 09 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches

ONSYDE have played a fixed player order of Maru-Solar-Ryung in every week (except the one week Crank played), so you have to wonder what DKZ were thinking by sending Oliveira out to face Maru. All the results since March affirmed what most people already thought about IEM Katowice: it was the miracle run of a lifetime for Oliveira. Still, there must be a reason for DKZ and Oliveira to pick this match—perhaps they think the world champion still has a psychological edge against the 6SL winner.

Since I think Maru will win 2-0, Solar and herO should be the real swing match of the series. Solar has consistently been one of the best online players of 2023, while herO has been playing very well in recent weeks after a brief dip in form. I think a 1-1 is the most likely result in a clash between two players who absolutely thrive in the WTL setting.

The final match favors DKZ quite heavily, with Dark playing his best match-up against Ryung's clear worst. My 'bold' prediction here is that Ryung is going to all-out cheese against Dark, and whether or not he successfully hides his proxies will decide if he can steal a map.

Ultimately, I think a 3-3 tie is the most likely result in the initial three series, which would send us to a very exciting ace match. Both Maru vs herO and Maru vs Dark have the potential to be very entertaining, especially with Gresvan being pre-set as the ace map. I'm going to give Maru the slightest edge in a BO1, out of deference to his 6SL title and 13-1 WTL record.

Prediction: ONSYDE Gaming 4 - 3 Dragon KaiZi Gaming

Following their loss to Shopify last week, PSISTORM are now five points below the playoff cutoff with matches against TL, ONSYDE, SSLT, and Berserker remaining. You don't have to go through all the match combinations to realize that this is a MUST WIN match if PSISTORM is to have any hope of making the playoffs at all.

Fortunately for PSISTORM, new signee Spirit is finally eligible to play. The Polish Terran is playing the best StarCraft II of his career in 2023, and it showed in the WTL as well where he put up a 8-3 record before being put into temporary transfer stasis.

The transfer means Spirit is actually playing SKillous for the second time this season, with the two players fighting to a 1-1 draw during the SLT vs TL match. I don't think Spirit can settle for that result this time—he needs a 2-0 for PSISTORM to feel good about their chances.

The second match is a real puzzler, with Namshar making his season debut against Elazer. Gerald and SpeCial might not be in great form, but I have to think there were some outside-the-game circumstances for PSISTORM to reach so deep into their bench. The randomness of ZvZ might give Namshar a chance of stealing a 1-1, but a 2-0 Elazer win is the outcome I'm picking.

MaxPax vs Clem is a fantastic match to potentially end this series, with Europe's best Terran going up against its best Protoss. MaxPax has had a slight edge against Clem in head-to-head matches as of late, but the Aligulac.com odds still see them as being close to even. While I'd love to see this extend into an ace match and be decided in a pseudo-BO3, I think Liquid will be able to end things earlier with a 4-2 victory.

Prediction: Team Liquid 4 - 2 PSISTORM Gaming

ABYDOS remains one of the most confusing teams in the WTL, in possession of a top four line-up at full strength but simply refusing to ever deploy it. While Mondo is going back to the bench in place of DRG, this marks the third straight week where ace player Cure is not playing. And, still, they have an okay shot of taking some points off of Shopify.

Lambo versus DRG is basically a dead even match in my eyes, and I'll predict a 1-1 while knowing it could easily swing 2-0 either way. If ABYDOS somehow gets some points out of this match, it will be because DRG rolled high and got the 2-0 on the day.

The ByuN vs. NightMare match-up is the key advantage Shopify have, with TvP monster ByuN being heavily favored to win in a 2-0. NightMare is cunning enough to occasionally steal maps off stronger players in PvZ, but I just can't see him pulling it off in PvT.

Harstem vs Creator is the PvP mirror image of Lambo versus DRG, where I arrive at a 1-1 prediction as a middle ground amid the chaos. In the end, I'm predicting Shopify to win off the strength of ByuN in TvP, but the two mirrors could easily complicate things.

Prediction: Shopify Rebellion 4 - 2 ABYDOS

When ONSYDE Gaming's Crank made his WTL debut, he did it in the safest way possible against the winless Berserker eSports. RotterdaM and BASILISK are being a bit more daring, deploying the caster/captain/Protoss against the 2W-5L Starlight Twinkle.

While Solar and Maru had to rescue ONSYDE from Crank's 0-2 start, RotterdaM might be able to hold his own here. Unlike Crank, he's actually played some official tournament matches this year, and he managed to go 1-2 against Creator, 1-1 against goblin, and 1-2 against MaxPax in PvP. While he's definitely the underdog against Nice, a 1-1 tie isn't out of the question.

Of course, you expect Reynor and Serral to clean up with 2-0's if RotterdaM stumbles out the gates. However, you have to remember that Reynor hasn't completely beat the 50/50 allegations yet, and a ZvZ against Cham could be surprisingly tricky. I can definitely envision a scenario where Rotti goes 0-2 to start and Reynor goes 1-1 against Cham, costing BASILISK a point.

Prediction: Starlight Twinkle 2 - 4 BASILISK

Tuesday, Jun 13 12:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) Matches

This is the highlight match of the season for a particularly perverse group of fans, as it's very likely to decide who suffers the ignominy of finishing in last place.

Three of the players involved in this match have zero map wins so far: Mixu (0-6), Spatz (0-10), and BreakingGG (0-12). Surely (hopefully), they'll all get a win on the board here?

In what might seem like a surprise, I'm going to give Berserker the slight edge due to DIMAGA. Sure, his 2-6 record is worse than iG ace MacSed (5-9), but I've been impressed by the quality of his play in straight-up macro games against strong players.

Prediction: Invictus Gaming 3 - 4 Berserker eSports

The Camels currently stand at #6 in the rankings due to hugely overperforming against the stronger teams in the WTL—this week we'll see if they get the job done against an opponent they 'should' beat.

This match is awfully hard to predict, largely because of the pair of PvP's that start things off. DnS vs. Cyan and goblin vs. Firefly are essentially coin flips, though perhaps I'd give Firefly a slight edge purely based on vibes (the dude is just really good in WTL, man).

I want to say ShaDoWn vs TooDming is the match-up where Platinum Heroes have a clear advantage, but TooDming is having an inexplicably good WTL season with a 5-5 record. Overall, even though I like the Heroes a little better on paper, I have to side with the Camels due to their unquantifiable and incomprehensible WTL buff.

Prediction: Platinum Heroes 3 - 4 瘦死骆驼 (Starving Camels)

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• Source: https://tl.net/forum/starcraft-2/612541-wtl-2023-summer-week-7-recap-week-8-preview