Dolar AS kembali datar karena pasar menilai kembali posisi suku bunga Fed yang tetap stabil untuk jangka waktu yang lebih lama

Dolar AS kembali datar karena pasar menilai kembali posisi suku bunga Fed yang tetap stabil untuk jangka waktu yang lebih lama

Stempel Waktu: 18 Januari 2024 10
Node Sumber: 3068466

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  • The US Dollar trades in the green in the aftermath of the weekly US Jobless Claims.
  • Traders hear Fed’s Bostic call again for a steady-for-longer outlook. 
  • The US Dollar Index failed to close above the important technical level of 103.40. 

Grafik Dolar Amerika (USD) trades slightly higher in the aftermath of US Jobless Claims numbers that went from 203,000 to 187,000. The upbeat number got overshadowed with another contraction print for the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey heading from -12.8 to -10.6, where -7 was expected. So some positiveness for the Greenback, though partially with that Philadelphia number dragging a touch. 

On the economic front, all numbers are out of the way, though Atlanta US Federal Reserve member Raphael Bostik is due to speak again this evening near 17:05 GMT. Although he already signalled his stance earlier this morning, his last speech is the second-to-last opportunity to steer markets ahead of the blackout period starting Friday evening. A slight hawkish tilt might fuel some more US Dollar strenght on the back of his comments. 

Daily digest market movers: Iran stirs tensions in the Middle East 

  • Houthi rebels said on Thursday that both the US and UK are now in direct conflict with the Houthi rebels. 
  • Iran has launched attacks on Pakistan locations. Recent numbers reveal as well that Iran has trippled its production for weapons-great Uranium. 
  • Thursday’s events kicked off with comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President  Raphael Bostic. He said he wants to see more evidence of inflation coming down. Wants to keep higher for longer to avoid having to cut first, and hike afterwards on a monetary policy error.
  • Housing Starts data was released  at 13:30 GMT, together with Jobless Claims:
    • Monthly Housing Starts for December heads from 1.525 million to 1.46 million. 
    • Monthly Building Permits for December went from 1.46 million to 1.495 million. 
    • Klaim Pengangguran Awal naik dari 203,000 menjadi 187,000.
    • Continuing Jobless Claims went from 1.832 million to 1.806 million. 
    • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for January remained nearl unchanged at -10.6, coming from -12.8.
  • The US Treasury will allocate a 4-week bill and a 10-year TIPS near 16:30 GMT and 18:00 GMT. 
  • Equity markets are trying to break the downbeat tone from this week. Asian indexes closed broadly flat, while European equities are trying to tie up with some small gains. US futures are dispersed with the Nasdaq in the green and the Dow Jones in the red. 
  • The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 97.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January 31 meeting. Around 2.6% expect the first cut already to take place. The more traders reprice cuts to later this year, a small rate hike expectation might come through in the coming days. 
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note remains steady at 4.11% while the US Dollar Index has retreated a touch. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Another attempt

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was unable to perform the best scenario to enter in a possible more lengthy period of Greenback strength. Although the rally could still turn into a longer uptrend, the fact that the DXY was unable to have a daily close above both the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.40means issues ahead. The bulls can still salvage the situation this Thursday or Friday with still a close above the level, and squeeze out the final bearish elements present, before rallying further in the coming days. 

The DXY is still trading near the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) at 103.39 and 103.45. In case the DXY can get through that area again, look for 104.44 as the first resistance level on the upside, in the form of the 100-day SMA. If that gets scattered as well, nothing will hold the DXY from heading to either 105.88 or 107.20, the high of September.  

Risk of a bull trap is very much a possibility, where US Dollar bulls were caught buying into the Greenback when it broke above both the 55-day and the 200-day SMA in early Wednesday trading. Price action could decline substantially and force US Dollar bulls to sell their position at a loss. This would see the DXY first drop to 102.60, at the ascending trend line from September. Once threading below it, the downturn is open to head to 102.00.

FAQ sentimen risiko

Dalam dunia jargon keuangan, dua istilah “risk-on” dan “risk-off” yang banyak digunakan mengacu pada tingkat risiko yang bersedia diterima oleh investor selama periode yang direferensikan. Dalam pasar “risk-on”, investor optimis terhadap masa depan dan lebih bersedia membeli aset berisiko. Dalam pasar “penghindaran risiko”, investor mulai 'bermain aman' karena mereka khawatir akan masa depan, dan oleh karena itu membeli aset-aset yang kurang berisiko dan lebih yakin akan menghasilkan keuntungan, bahkan jika keuntungannya relatif kecil.

Biasanya, selama periode “risk-on”, pasar saham akan naik, dan sebagian besar komoditas – kecuali Emas – juga akan mengalami kenaikan nilai, karena mereka mendapatkan keuntungan dari prospek pertumbuhan yang positif. Mata uang negara-negara eksportir komoditas berat menguat karena peningkatan permintaan, dan mata uang kripto meningkat. Di pasar “risk-off”, Obligasi naik – terutama Obligasi pemerintah yang besar – Emas bersinar, dan mata uang safe-haven seperti Yen Jepang, Franc Swiss, dan Dolar AS semuanya mendapat keuntungan.

Dolar Australia (AUD), Dolar Kanada (CAD), Dolar Selandia Baru (NZD) dan FX kecil seperti Rubel (RUB) dan Rand Afrika Selatan (ZAR), semuanya cenderung meningkat di pasar yang “berisiko- pada". Hal ini karena perekonomian negara-negara tersebut sangat bergantung pada ekspor komoditas untuk pertumbuhannya, dan harga komoditas cenderung naik selama periode risk-on. Hal ini karena investor memperkirakan permintaan bahan baku yang lebih besar di masa depan karena meningkatnya aktivitas ekonomi.

Mata uang utama yang cenderung naik selama periode “risk-off” adalah Dolar AS (USD), Yen Jepang (JPY) dan Franc Swiss (CHF). Dolar AS, karena merupakan mata uang cadangan dunia, dan karena pada saat krisis investor membeli utang pemerintah AS, yang dipandang aman karena perekonomian terbesar di dunia ini tidak mungkin gagal bayar. Yen, disebabkan oleh meningkatnya permintaan terhadap obligasi pemerintah Jepang, karena sebagian besar dipegang oleh investor domestik yang kemungkinan besar tidak akan membuangnya – bahkan dalam kondisi krisis. Franc Swiss, karena undang-undang perbankan Swiss yang ketat menawarkan perlindungan modal yang lebih baik kepada investor.

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