Newsquawk Sepekan ke Depan: FOMC, NFP, PMI Mfg ISM, BoE, CPI ZE dan PDB ZE | hidup forex

Newsquawk Sepekan ke Depan: FOMC, NFP, PMI Mfg ISM, BoE, CPI ZE dan PDB ZE | hidup forex

Stempel Waktu: 27 Januari 2024 9
Node Sumber: 3087849
  • matahari: Neraca Perdagangan Selandia Baru
  • mon: Pengangguran di Jepang (Des)
  • Tue: Pemilihan Kota Israel; IHK Flash Spanyol (Jan), KOF Swiss (Jan), PDB Flash Jerman (Q4), PDB Flash EZ (Q4), Final Kepercayaan Konsumen EZ (Des), Harga Rumah AS (Nov), JOLTS (Des), Penjualan Ritel Jepang (Des)
  • Mengawinkan: Pengumuman Kebijakan CPI, FOMC & BCB Australia, BoJ SOO (Jan); PMIS NBS Tiongkok (Jan), IHK Flash Jerman (Jan), Penjualan Ritel Jerman (Des), Harga Impor (Des), Prelim Prancis. IHK (Jan), Pengangguran Jerman (Jan), PDB EZ Awal Awal. (Q4), ADP AS (Jan) dan Indeks Biaya Ketenagakerjaan (Q4), PMI Chicago (Jan), Prelim Italia. PCI (Jan)
  • Kam: PMI Manufaktur Caixin Tiongkok (Jan), Final PMI Manufaktur EZ/Inggris/AS (Jan), CPI Flash EZ (Jan), Pengumuman BoE, PMI Manufaktur ISM (Jan).
  • Jum: Laporan Pekerjaan AS (Jan)

Catatan: Pratinjau dicantumkan dalam urutan hari

Neraca Perdagangan Selandia Baru (Minggu)

Saat ini tidak ada ekspektasi terhadap data Selandia Baru. Dalam rilis bulan lalu, defisit perdagangan bulan/bulan menyempit dari NZD 1.7 miliar menjadi NZD 1.2 miliar – sebagian besar sesuai dengan ekspektasi, sementara Ekspor turun lebih dari 5% Tahun/Tahun menjadi NZD 5.99 miliar dan impor berkontraksi 15% Tahun/Tahun menjadi NZD 7.23 miliar. Pada bulan ini terjadi kontraksi yang signifikan dalam volume perdagangan dengan Tiongkok, dengan ekspor ke Tiongkok turun sebesar -9.7% Y/Y sementara Impor turun sebesar 17% Y/Y. Analis di Westpac percaya bahwa defisit yang lebih kecil pada bulan Desember mungkin terjadi, mencerminkan peningkatan ekspor musiman.

Penjualan Ritel Australia (Selasa)

December Retail Sales data is expected to print at -2.0% vs. +2.0% in November. November saw a stronger-than-expected 2% increase, contrasting with the choppy performance in September-October and a modest annual growth of 2.2%. The rise in November sales was partly attributed to changing seasonal trends, with more spending during ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber-week’ sales periods. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted a significant increase in November seasonality over the last decade. For December, a decline in retail sales is anticipated, estimated at 0.5%, as per Westpac Card Tracker data. This decline is attributed to uneven spending during the Christmas period and weak underlying momentum, despite consumers taking advantage of sales discounts.

CPI Australia (Rabu)

The quarterly and monthly CPI data will be in focus at the RBA. The monthly CPI Indicator, though not a precise monthly measure of CPI (as it aggregates various price survey data throughout the quarter), is vital for updating desks’ quarterly CPI forecasts. Markets expect the Y/Y metric at 3.7% whilst Westpac predicts a 3.0% rise. Q4 CPI meanwhile is anticipated to show a quarterly increase of 0.8% (prev. 1.2%) and an annual rise of 4.3% (prev. 5.4%) – slightly under the RBA’s 4.5% projection. The Trimmed Mean, or “core”, is seen at 0.9% for the quarter and 4.4% annually, marginally beneath the RBA’s 4.5% forecast. Westpac said “Our forecast for inflation is consistent with our current view that the RBA will remain on hold at the February meeting and that the RBA will be reducing the cash rate at the September meeting later this year.”

Pengumuman Pengembalian Dana Kuartalan UST (Rabu)

Bank of America thinks the Treasury will deliver a repeat of the increase in auction sizes that it announced in November, where the Treasury suggested that a final increase would be needed for issuance to align with financing needs. “This would mark the third consecutive quarterly increase in coupon supply since the August refunding,” BofA writes, “we see room for Treasury to continue growing coupon supply in 2025-2026, but expect it to hold off on further adjustments this year given uncertainty around QT and deficits.” BofA also argues that the Treasury might prefer to delay further coupon increases given the perception of market sensitivity to supply announcements, and a desire to refrain from tightening financial conditions in an election year. In terms of the details, BofA says that while it is not the base case, there is potential for Treasury to deliver larger back-end supply next week than in November given that it delivered a lower increase at the 10yr and 30yr points vs its expectations and what the TBAC had recommended, a decision BofA thinks was driven by concern about the demand backdrop and sharp increase in term premium from August to October.

Pengumuman FOMC (Rabu)

The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at its January meeting, according to all economists surveyed by Reuters. The central bank is expected to begin cutting rates in Q2 in response to cooling inflation, according to 86 of 123 surveyed (55 thought June was more likely, while 31 see a reduction in May). Additionally, the Reuters poll reveals that most economists (72 of the 123) believe the Fed will cut rates by 100bps or fewer this year – that compares to money market pricing, which currently sees five 25bps rate cuts fully priced, with a good chance of a sixth; the Fed’s own forecasts see three 25bps rate cuts this year. “We still expect the Committee to maintain a cautious stance in the near-term even amid an increasingly improving profile for consumer prices, as the Fed would like to ascertain that the recent progress in inflation is sustainable,” TD Securities said.

Pengumuman BCB (Rabu)

The BCB is expected to fire its fifth rate cut of the current easing cycle, reducing rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Analysts continue to see further rate reductions this year, with the weekly central bank poll of private economists seeing the Selic falling to 9.00% this year, before easing a little further to 8.50% in 2025. However, Capital Economics suggests that “with inflation set to remain above target, fiscal risks likely to flare up again and the labour market only loosening gradually, we think interest rates will be lowered more cautiously than most currently expect (it sees the end-2024 Selic rate at 9.50%).”

PMI NBS Tiongkok (Rabu)/PMI Manufaktur Caixin (Kamis)

Data PMI Tiongkok akan diawasi dengan ketat untuk mengukur kesehatan pemulihan Tiongkok, meskipun tidak jelas apakah periode survei akan merangkum penurunan RRR terbaru yang diumumkan oleh PBoC yang mengeluarkan likuiditas sejumlah CNY 1tln. Saat ini tidak ada perkiraan untuk metrik tersebut. Pada bulan Desember, metrik Manufaktur dari NBS dan Caixin dialihkan, dengan PMI resmi pemerintah menunjukkan kontraksi yang berkelanjutan (sebesar 49.0), sementara laporan Caixin Global menunjukkan sedikit pertumbuhan (sebesar 50.4), meskipun laporan terakhir diketahui lebih fluktuatif dibandingkan metrik NBS. Sentimen di Tiongkok suram hampir sepanjang bulan ini karena serangkaian kebijakan yang diumumkan tahun lalu sebagian besar diabaikan oleh investor, meskipun penurunan RRR yang diumumkan pada hari Rabu kemungkinan mengangkat sentimen investor terhadap Tiongkok keluar dari posisi terendahnya. Analis di JP Morgan memperkirakan Tiongkok dapat mempertahankan momentum pemulihannya hingga semester pertama tahun 1, sebelum mengurangi tren pertumbuhan pada semester kedua tahun 2024. JPM mengatakan deflasi akan berakhir pada tahun 2, memanfaatkan dinamika perubahan harga komoditas global. Namun, tabel tersebut menunjukkan inflasi yang rendah akan bertahan di tengah biasnya dukungan kebijakan terhadap produksi vs konsumsi.

PDB EZ Flash (Rabu)

Ekspektasinya adalah rilis awal PDB Zona Euro akan menunjukkan kontraksi 0.1% kuartal/kuartal di kuartal keempat vs kontraksi 4% di kuartal ketiga, dengan tingkat tahunan terlihat datar di 0.1% tahunan, yang juga akan sesuai dengan angka kuartal ketiga. Menjelang rilis tersebut, analis di Investec mencatat bahwa Zona Euro terus mengalami resesi teknis selama beberapa waktu tanpa benar-benar mencapai tonggak sejarah; Para analisnya menambahkan bahwa hal ini terjadi dalam konteks krisis energi yang disebabkan oleh perang Rusia-Ukraina. Namun, seiring dengan turunnya harga energi secara signifikan, kinerja perekonomian Zona Euro terlihat kurang mengesankan. Dalam perspektif regional, resesi teknis Jerman pada paruh kedua tahun 3 jelas merupakan hal yang menonjol. Meskipun demikian, Investec berpandangan bahwa “perekonomian utama kawasan Euro lainnya tampaknya telah mencapai kinerja yang lebih baik, menghindari hal tersebut” dan oleh karena itu, hal ini akan mengarah pada stagnasi pertumbuhan yang lebih luas (0% Q/Q) untuk rilis mendatang. Dari sudut pandang kebijakan, laporan yang lemah dapat memberikan perkiraan pasar terhadap penurunan suku bunga. Namun, taruhan tersebut mungkin memerlukan keyakinan mengingat CPI dirilis pada hari berikutnya.

CPI Flash EZ (Kamis)

Ekspektasinya adalah IHK tahun/tahun utama akan naik menjadi 3.1% dari 2.9% dengan tingkat inti terlihat turun menjadi 3.2% dari 3.4%. Rilis sebelumnya menunjukkan inflasi umum meningkat menjadi 2.9% pada bulan Desember (vs sebelumnya 2.4%) di tengah dampak buruk dari Jerman terhadap basis energi, sementara inflasi inti terus menurun, dengan bulan Desember menunjukkan penurunan ukuran super-core menjadi 3.4% dari 3.6 %. Untuk rilis mendatang, analis di Moody's mencatat bahwa “efek dasar di segmen energi akan mempertahankan tekanan ke atas, namun kami memperkirakan hal ini akan sebanding dengan rendahnya harga pangan dan barang-barang inti.” Laporan tersebut menambahkan bahwa inflasi jasa “seharusnya juga menurun, meskipun tidak terlalu banyak”. Dari sudut pandang kebijakan, pembacaan yang lemah dapat melihat pasar sepenuhnya memperkirakan penurunan suku bunga pada bulan April, yang saat ini diperkirakan memiliki probabilitas sekitar 90%, dengan total pelonggaran sebesar 140bps yang terlihat pada akhir tahun. Namun, perkiraan tersebut hanya akan bertahan jika pembuat kebijakan tidak menutup kemungkinan untuk melakukan tindakan pada bulan April.

Pengumuman BoE (Kamis)

Analysts surveyed are unanimous in their view that the MPC will once again stand pat on rates, leaving the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The vote will likely be unanimous, with the three December dissenters (Greene, Haskell, Mann) likely to move to the “unchanged” camp after being wrongfooted by the November inflation report, which saw the all-important services print decline to 6.3% Y/Y from 6.6% – in stark contrast to the MPC’s projection of 6.9%. Since the prior meeting, the annualised rate of headline inflation unexpectedly advanced to 4.0% Y/Y from 3.9%, while the services print ticked higher to 6.4% Y/Y from 6.3%. However, expectations for the broader disinflationary trend to continue remain in place; ING bank is of the view that inflation will dip below 2% in April and sit around the 1.5% area in May/June. Elsewhere, GDP in November expanded 0.3% M/M (vs the 0.36% contraction the prior month). Survey data remains strong with the January composite PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.1 with the services print at 53.8 vs. prev. 53.4. In the labour market, the unemployment rate (subject to data quality concerns) holding steady at 4.2%, while headline earnings growth in the 3m/YY period to November fell to 6.5% from 7.2%. Softness has been observed in the consumer too, with monthly retail sales -3.2% in December (vs prev. 1.4%). Incremental commentary from the MPC has been minimal, cementing expectations of a hold in policy. Beyond the upcoming meeting, markets assign an approximately 80% chance of a June rate cut, with a total of 92bps of easing seen by year-end. Thirty-eight of the 70 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the first cut to come in Q2, with all but four seeing at least one cut before September. For the accompanying MPR, Oxford Economics expects that the MPC will “bring forward the timing of when it expects inflation to return to the 2% target to Q2 2024 from end-2025.” On growth, the consultancy says “the BoE will likely take a less downbeat view of the economy’s prospects compared to November, when it forecast that GDP would flatline this year and grow only 0.25% in 2025.”

PMI Manufaktur ISM (Kamis)

As a comparison, S&P Global’s flash US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 47.9 in December, to a fresh 15-month high, which signals the first improvement in operating conditions at goods producers in nine months, S&P said, though added that the upturn was only fractional amid a further drop in production. The output index picked-up to 48.7 from 48.1, with manufacturing firms continuing to see a moderate drop in activity in the month. Challenging trucking conditions due to storms and transportation delays was reported to have weighed on vendor performance, with lead times rising for the first time in over a year. Still, S&P said it was an encouraging start to the year, with output across both goods and services rising in January at the fastest rate since last June, with growth momentum stepping up on the back of improved demand conditions. “New orders inflows have now picked up for three months, buoyed in particular by improving sales to domestic customers, helping lift business confidence about the year ahead to the most optimistic since May 2022,” S&P said, adding that “confidence has also been buoyed by hopes of lower inflation in 2024, easing the cost of living squeeze and facilitating the path to lower interest rates.” Prices rose in January at the slowest rate since the initial pandemic lockdowns of early 2020, the report said, with companies stating that selling price inflation was now below pre-pandemic averages, and consistent with CPI dropping below the Fed’s 2% target. “With the survey indicating that supply delays have intensified while labour markets remain tight, cost pressures will need to be monitored closely in the coming months,” S&P writes, “but for now the survey send a clear and welcome message of resilient economic growth and sharply waning inflation.”

Pratinjau Riksbank (Kamis)

Diperkirakan akan mempertahankan suku bunga tidak berubah pada angka 4.00% mengingat panduan bulan November agar suku bunga tetap pada tingkat ini pada tahun 2024 dan 2025. Keputusan ini dibenarkan oleh inflasi yang terus melambat seiring dengan tanda-tanda perlambatan domestik yang sedang berlangsung; Namun, PMI Jasa bulan Desember naik kembali ke angka 50.0. Mengingat data inflasi, ada kemungkinan Riksbank merevisi pedomannya untuk tidak melakukan pemotongan pada tahun 2024, meskipun pengumuman tersebut mungkin dinilai terlalu dini pada pertemuan ini. Meskipun suku bunga diperkirakan tidak berubah, Riksbank mungkin memilih untuk mengumumkan peningkatan laju penjualan obligasi pemerintah seperti yang ditandai pada pertemuan terakhir. Sebagai pengingat, pada bulan November Riksbank mempertahankan suku bunganya pada 4.00% di luar ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga dan menyatakan bahwa mereka siap untuk menaikkan suku bunga kebijakan lebih lanjut jika prospek inflasi memburuk. Selain itu, mengenai pembelian, mereka mengatakan mereka sedang mempertimbangkan untuk meningkatkan laju penjualan obligasi pemerintah (saat ini SEK 5 miliar/bulan) pada bulan Januari. Pengumuman yang dianggap netral secara keseluruhan. Dalam risalah tersebut, elemen yang paling relevan adalah Breman mengalihkan fokus ke inflasi/aktivitas dari SEK yang lemah.

Rapat JMMC (Kamis)

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is poised to meet on February 1st as part of meetings held every two months to monitor the implementation of the OPEC pact. As a reminder, the JMMC will not implement any changes to policy but they can make a recommendations to the decision-making OPEC+ body. Note, Reuters sources earlier this month suggested a video conference will be held. The meeting also comes against the backdrop of volatile crude prices and as geopolitical tensions escalate. There have been no indications that the OPEC+ group is looking to take action in the near term. In terms of the most recent OPEC MOMR, the release inaugurated a 2025 demand growth forecast which was a downgrade from the current 2024 forecast (2.2mln BPD in 2024 vs 1.8mln BPD in 2025). Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco CEO at Davos suggested that 2024 oil demand growth was seen around 1.5mln BPD (vs 2.2mln BPD forecast in the MOMR). Supply metrics from Angola were also omitted from calculations following the country’s departure from the OPEC-13 in December. The latest Reuters sources stated the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during the meeting, but one source said the meeting would mainly discuss the group’s production levels and that there will be no recommendations at the JMMC. One source added that a decision on whether or not to extend a portion of the group’s voluntary oil output cuts into April would likely come at the end of February, although another source said the decision’s timing was not yet clear. Meanwhile, a Russian delegate stated there is no evidence that additional steps are needed.

Laporan Pekerjaan AS (Jumat)

The consensus expects 162k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in January (range 140-285k), with the unemployment rate projected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, slightly cooler than the +0.4% registered in December, while average workweek hours are seen ticking higher to 34.4hrs from 34.3. Analysts also point out that the January jobs data will incorporate final benchmark revisions; Investec said that the prelim estimate suggested that the level of payrolls in March 2023 will be revised 306k lower, but argues that this tells us little about recent trends, and updated seasonal factors may have an impact. NOTE: Ahead of the January employment report, the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released on Tuesday; Moody’s said that the labour market came slowly into better balance throughout 2023, and it expects the JOLTS data to show job openings falling modestly from the 8.79mln printed in November. And on Wednesday, the Q4 employment cost data will be released, which analysts will look to to determine if the moderation in pay growth continued in the final quarter of the year; Moody’s looks for a slight deceleration from Q3’s 1.1% pace.

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