Elon Musk Retak Di Bawah Tekanan Pertaruhan Terbesar Yang Pernah Dia Lakukan Dalam Hidupnya - Autoblog

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Elon Musk sedang dalam kondisi panas.

Dari tahun 2019 hingga 2022, tampaknya setiap pertaruhan yang dilakukan Musk membuahkan hasil. Tesla secara konsisten menghasilkan keuntungan untuk pertama kalinya dalam sejarahnya dan stoknya melonjak as its massive new Shanghai plant ramped up production. SpaceX rockets captivated the public’s attention — even when they blew up, everyone still clapped. Accusations of korupsi dan mementingkan diri sendiri slid right off Musk’s back. Musk could do and say anything he wanted and success followed: He was even named Time’s 2021 Person of the Year.

Then Musk did what every risk-addicted blackjack player inevitably does: pushed his luck too far. Overconfidence, confirmation bias, and delusions of control led to a string of bad decisions — and BOOM — Elon’s empire is in trouble again.

The change of fortune was apparent at The New York Times Dealbook Conference last week. During an interview with host Andrew Ross Sorkin, the recognizable tells that Musk’s hand had gone cold were everywhere. He raged at the very people who will dictate Twitter’s fate, seemed baffled by key questions about the future of his companies, and offered non-apologies for his unhinged, antisocial behavior online. Sorkin suggested Musk’s brain is like a storm, but it sounded more like two cats fighting to get out of a duffle bag.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what it looks like when Musk realizes he’s in a jam entirely of his own making. I know, because we’ve seen it before, including back in 2018, when he nearly flew Tesla ke dalam gunung. Dia mungkin menemukan cara untuk menangkal bencana, seperti yang dia lakukan saat itu, namun kemacetan kali ini jauh lebih parah daripada bencana sebelumnya. Musk harus menghadapi utang lebih dari $13 miliar yang masih membebani Twitter yang tenggelam dengan cepat, Tesla’s profits shrinking because of a lack of demand and new products, and a world that is generally sick of his schtick. In Muskland, everything is connected by money — problems at one business bleed into the others. That’s why Elon is being exceptionally obstinate. It’s not just your imagination — his luck has changed.

2018, tahun pertama yang mengerikan

If you want to understand Musk’s latest unhinged behavior, it’s helpful to understand the reasons he’s lashed out in the past. So let me take you back to the wild ride that was 2018: Musk had bet Tesla’s future on the Model 3. With an intended starting price of $30,000, the car was supposed to make EVs accessible to drivers who couldn’t afford luxury prices. But Tesla’s investors got increasingly restless as the model became trapped in what Musk called “production hell.”

The pressure to get the Model 3 out clearly weighed on Musk, and he was not subtle about it. On Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, he cut off one analyst’s basic financial question, saying that “boring, bonehead questions are not cool.” He got so frustrated that he ditched the analysts entirely and started taking questions from fans posting on YouTube. Eventually, he even pinta investor Tesla yang skeptis to “please, sell our stock.” When Musk is at his most hungry for cash, he tends to menggigit tangan yang memberi makan.

Musk also became more active on Twitter around this time, often with erratic results. When a professional diver complained that Musk was distracting from efforts to rescue a children’s soccer team that had been trapped in a cave in Thailand, Musk memanggil penyelam itu a “pedo guy” and harassed him on Twitter. He used the platform to whine about the media, attack investors betting against Tesla’s stock, and even tweeted that he would be menjadikan Tesla pribadi dengan harga $420 per saham ketika tidak ada kesepakatan seperti itu. Tesla — seperti yang kemudian diakui Musk — “near death,” and summer’s “production hell” was about to turn into autumn’s “logistics hell.”

Tesla’s salvation came in the form of the Chinese Communist Party. In 2019, as executives were fleeing Tesla and the company continued to bleed cash, Musk struck a deal to build a factory in Shanghai. From permitting to construction to opening, the Shanghai Gigafactory was built in just 168 hari kerja. Skeptical observers — myself included — were blindsided. What we failed to appreciate was the staggering power of the CCP when it’s aggressively pushing to meet a single goal. When the party said Tesla could build the factory there, that meant immediately.

Secara umum, ada dua pelajaran berbeda yang dapat diambil seseorang dari bertahan hidup di lingkungan yang hampir hancur. Mereka dapat belajar untuk lebih berhati-hati, atau mereka dapat memutuskan bahwa mereka tidak dapat dihancurkan dan mencobai nasib.

Tanpa Tiongkok, Tesla would not have finally turned into a “real car company,” in Musk’s own words. He dodged destruction and started to settle down and focus on other projects, like Starlink. Sure, he was still wilding out on Twitter, but at least he wasn’t bawling ke Rolling Stone tentang betapa dia sangat membutuhkan pacar untuk bahagia. Pada akhirnya, tampaknya alam semesta Musk telah menemukan semacam keseimbangan yang hiruk pikuk.

Generally, there are two different lessons a person can take from surviving a brush with near ruin. They can learn to be more cautious, or they can decide that they are indestructible and tempt fate. I don’t think I need to tell you which path Musk chose.

Seluruh dunia Elon terhubung

Say what you want about him, but Elon Musk has ambition. On top of the world in early 2022, Musk decided that he had the power to single-handedly “fix” the entire concept of free speech. And given that he is hopelessly addicted to the adulation he gets from Twitter, that’s where he figured he would start.

We all know this part of the story. Musk started building a stake in Twitter in early 2022, then offered to buy it outright. He offered such a ridiculously high price that the board couldn’t say no. A consortium of banks — led by morgan Stanley— meminjamkannya sebagian besar uangnya. Dan akhirnya, setelah mencoba dan kemudian gagal untuk mengingkari kesepakatan, dia membeli Twitter. Tidak lama setelah menyelesaikan kesepakatan, Musk kehabisan semua ide untuk membalikkan platform dan ditinggalkan oleh mantan karyawan yang marah dan skeptis pengiklan, nama baru yang buruk, dan tumpukan hutang yang sangat besar kepada Pramuka di Wall Street.

Saat ini, beberapa analis, seperti Vicki Bryan, CEO perusahaan riset Sudut ikatan, suspect that Twitter is spending much more than it’s able to generate or borrow.

“With the company still burning cash and $1.3-1.5 billion in annual interest due over the past year, I had expected Twitter to live on borrowed time,” Bryan wrote in a note to clients. She said that even if Twitter tapped the loans available to it at the beginning of the year, the company may be almost out of options. “The year is over, so Twitter’s cash may be nearly if not already dried up — along with Elon Musk’s options,” Bryan wrote.

Because of the way that Musk operates, the social-media company’s troubles pose a threat to his whole business empire. Despite being the second-wealthiest person in the world, Musk is curiously cash poor. He doesn’t take a salary from Tesla, and while he owns about 20% of the EV maker, public documents filed in March show that about 63% dari saham tersebut are “pledged as collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness.” You know, like the private jets.

The year is over, so Twitter’s cash may be nearly if not already dried up—along with Elon Musk’s options Vicki Bryan, CEO firma riset Bond Angle

Inilah sebabnya mengapa menggunakan saham Tesla untuk mendapatkan uang tunai all the time gets hairy. If Tesla shares fall below a certain level, the banks can call in those personal loans — leaving Musk on the hook. And the quickest way for Tesla’s stock to drop off a cliff is for investors to get wind of a big Musk sale. And of course, he needs to make sure that he still holds on to all the Tesla stock he’s pledged as collateral to the banks. Unfortunately, though, the easiest way for Musk to fill the gaping hole in Twitter’s balance sheet is untuk menjual saham Tesla. Anda lihat bagaimana ini bisa menjadi masalah.

Sometimes, when he’s really hard up, Musk borrows money from SpaceX — a private company that kehilangan total $1.5 miliar pada tahun 2021 dan 2022. Dia meminjam $ 1 miliar dari perusahaan ketika dia membeli Twitter dan membayar kembali pinjamannya dalam waktu satu bulan — namun dia harus menjual saham Tesla senilai $4 miliar untuk melakukannya. Dengan menggunakan kekayaan dan kekuasaannya, Musk telah membangun realitas terpisah di mana tidak ada konsekuensi nyata atas risiko yang diambilnya, namun tetap memperhatikan Twitter – maaf, X – semakin hari semakin menguji batasannya.

Kehidupan di Bumi 1

All of this money-incinerating activity, from the beginning of the Twitter deal to this very moment, could not have come at a worse time. For decades, Musk has operated in a placid economy where interest rates were near zero. But Musk started buying Twitter right as central banks around the world began hiking rates in an effort to combat inflation. That means the cost of servicing his debt is getting more expensive, making it harder for him to get new loans. It’s a shift so dramatic that it could rip a hole in the universe through which Musk’s reality collapses into our own.

The outlook for Tesla’s business doesn’t help him much either. The company’s share of the EV market has fallen as competitors have swarmed in. The new entrants prompted Musk to start memotong harga mobilnya pada awal tahun 2023, dan sebagai hasilnya, Tesla’s profitability berada di bawah tekanan serius. Perusahaan ini memiliki rencana untuk memperluas kemampuan manufakturnya, namun tidak ada rencana untuk menyegarkan armada kendaraannya yang sudah tua. Kecuali, tentu saja, Anda menghitung Cybertuck, yang kebanyakan tidak. Bulan lalu, Tesla mengadakan acara peluncuran untuk merayakan pengiriman 10 Cybertrucks. Sepuluh. Model paling murah, dengan harga $60,000, tidak akan tersedia hingga tahun 2025, menurut perusahaan. Bryan mengatakan kepada saya bahwa dia mengharapkan Musk untuk terus menyedot uang dari Tesla dengan cara yang tidak jelas – tetapi pertanyaannya adalah: Berapa banyak sebenarnya uang yang akan disedot? Dan berapa lama dia harus melakukan itu?

Ada uang yang telah dibakar dan tidak akan pernah kembali lagi Vicky Bryan

“The only thing we’re waiting on is for Elon to cry uncle,” said Bryan. In her view — which is based on 30 years of investing in distressed assets — any equity in the company has already been erased by Musk’s antics. As for the debt, the banks have been unable to unload it at 85 cents on the dollar, and she thinks they’ll be lucky to get 40 cents. By all accounts, Twitter has a credit problem, and Bryan said that calls for a run-of-the-mill restructuring solution: bankruptcy. When Musk tires of robbing Peter to pay Paul, he will default on his Twitter loans. Then the consortium of banks that own the debt can accelerate it — standard debt agreements come with clauses that allow lenders to force a borrower to pay all of an outstanding loan back if certain requirements (like payment) are not met. Once that wire is tripped, Twitter can declare bankruptcy.

“There is money that has been set on fire that is never coming back,” Bryan said. “We’re in the salvage business with Twitter. In a restructuring, with Elon gone, you can have people looking at it. They can foresee that Elon didn’t do anything that can’t be reversed and offer instant relief.”

Will it be enough to save Twitter/X? Maybe not, but it’s the company’s only and best hope.

Wall Street seharusnya merasa malu. Menurut untuk laporan, the banks holding Twitter’s debt are already expecting to take a $2 billion hit when they can finally sell it off. It’s not hard to see why. I’ve said from the jump that there was tidak ada uang dalam usaha Twitter ini, dan juga tidak ada prinsip. Musk dulu akan selalu beralih ke Twitter into a reflection of his limited view, his “Earth” — as he put it during his manic rambling at Dealbook — not a place for the average user. I never expected Musk’s fanboys to understand that, but I did expect bankers who are supposed to understand who pays for what in a media business to get it. In the end, there’s a real chance Wall Street investors will wind up owning the shambolic mess that is Twitter/X. One of the few blessings to come from this fiasco is that when that happens, at least they’ll know what tidak untuk melakukannya.

Barista Lopez adalah koresponden senior di Business Insider.

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