Futures let you trade the masa depan price for an asset in today’s market, which makes them great tools for speculating on and hedging the future path of prices. But futures aren’t just great trading vehicles…
Derivatives are a crowd-sourced predictive model. Thousands of people gathering on the bids and offers to voice their opinion on the future of an asset is essentially an efficient, real-time poll.
Dana Fed Berjangka
Take, for example, Fed Funds futures (ZQ) and the Fed Funds Rate. The former reflects where traders think the Federal Reserve will set rates at certain points in the future, while the latter is the actual rate as currently set by the Fed.
ZQZ23 Fed Funds Futures Dec 2023
How can a rate that is usually only altered a few times per year by the Federal Open Market Committee display so much movement day to day? The projection of where rates are headed in the future changes daily as a function of data releases, Fed statements, and general sentiment.
(Aside: Fed Funds futures are priced 100 – [Fed Funds Rate]; for example, a price of 98.60 reflects an expectation of 1.40% in the Fed Funds Rate.)
How Futures Predict the Future
The forward curve for any futures market presents the current prices for an asset at several dates in the future per corresponding contracts.
ZQ Fed Funds Futures Forward Curve
Prices declining as time is added demonstrates an expectation of rate hikes from the Fed; given the current rate of 0.125%, the projection is two or three 0.25% hikes in 2022, and another two or three in 2023.
Fed Funds Futures: Prices and Projections
Kontrak | Harga | Projected Rate | |
---|---|---|---|
Desember 2021 | 99.87 | 0.13% | |
Desember 2022 | 99.25 | 0.75% | |
Desember 2023 | 98.60 | 1.40% |
Sumber: Yahoo! Keuangan (https://finance.yahoo.com/) per 12/8/21
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© 2021 Small Exchange, Inc. Semua hak dilindungi undang-undang. Small Exchange, Inc. adalah Pasar Kontrak yang Ditunjuk yang terdaftar di Komisi Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditas AS. Informasi dalam iklan ini adalah yang terbaru pada tanggal yang disebutkan, hanya untuk tujuan informasi, dan tidak ditujukan untuk mengatasi tujuan keuangan, situasi, atau kebutuhan khusus investor individu mana pun. Perdagangan berjangka melibatkan risiko kerugian, termasuk kemungkinan kerugian yang lebih besar dari investasi awal Anda.
Source: https://www.danielstrading.com/2021/12/16/can-derivatives-predict-the-future-of-markets
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