सावधान: इस विस्मयकारी स्टार्टअप में निवेश न करें

सावधान: इस विस्मयकारी स्टार्टअप में निवेश न करें

समय टिकट: 19 अप्रैल, 2023 11:00 पूर्वाह्न
स्रोत नोड: 2595735

A few weeks ago, a startup set out to raise capital from investors like you.

It quickly raised $100,000… $1 million… $5 million.

And now, with just 24 hours left to invest in it, it’s raised about $8 million.

Clearly, this opportunity has caught investors’ attention.

So why am I pounding the table saying DON’T invest in it?

For the answer, read on.

The Substack Story

The startup I’m talking about is called Substack.

Substack is a platform for writers. It helps writers email their content to readers like you — and importantly, it helps them प्रभार इसके लिए।

Many writers are making a living from it. Specifically, about 17,000 writers are earning money, with the top 10 collectively making more than $25 million annually.

The company was founded in 2017. Here’s a snapshot of its first few years:

  • 2018 — Graduated from the Y Combinator accelerator and raised $2 million.
  • 2019 — Raised $15 million led by Andreessen Horowitz, a top VC.
  • 2020 — Hit 100,000 paid subscriptions.
  • 2021 — Hit 1 million paid subscriptions. Raised $65 million, again led by Andreessen.
  • Today, the company boasts more than 35 million monthly active subscriptions, with about 2 million readers like us paying for a subscription.
  • The company did about $10 million in revenues in 2021. In 2022, according to किनारे से, it probably did about $18 million.

It’s tough to argue with its progress. And as the company says, it’s aiming to build a “new economic engine for culture.” It’s tough to argue with that, too.

Everything sounds pretty good, right? Maybe even great. This is an exciting enterprise.

So why am I telling you to NOT invest in it?

The “10x Your Money” Rule

To explain, let me back up a minute…

When Wayne and I first launched Crowdability, we conducted a deep research project.

Our goal was to identify a सिद्ध प्रक्रिया for picking successful startup investments.

लगभग एक वर्ष के दौरान, हम देश के तीन दर्जन से अधिक सबसे सफल स्टार्टअप निवेशकों के साथ बैठे। उस समय, इन निवेशकों ने सामूहिक रूप से 1,080 से अधिक स्टार्टअप का समर्थन किया था, और कई अरब डॉलर का मुनाफा कमाया था।

और धीरे-धीरे, उन्होंने हमें जीतने वाले निवेश की पहचान करने के लिए दर्जनों उपकरण और "ट्रिक्स" सिखाईं।

लेकिन उनकी सभी रणनीतियों में से एक अब तक सबसे मूल्यवान रही है:

How to identify the investments that can return 10x your money.

बाधाओं के साथ जाओ

In case you didn’t know, startup investors earn their profits in two main ways:

  1. स्टार्टअप आरंभिक सार्वजनिक पेशकश (आईपीओ) में सार्वजनिक हो जाता है; या
  2. स्टार्टअप का अधिग्रहण हो जाता है.

IPOs can lead startup investors to massive profits, but IPOs happen very infrequently.

स्टार्टअप निवेशकों के लिए अपना मुनाफ़ा कमाने का सबसे आम तरीका अधिग्रहण है - दूसरे शब्दों में, जब जिस स्टार्टअप में उन्होंने निवेश किया था उस पर किसी अन्य कंपनी का कब्ज़ा हो जाता है।

To put the numbers in perspective: In 2020, there were about 480 IPOs. But during the same time frame, there were about 12,000 takeovers.

So, how can we spot potential takeover targets early — so we can cash out for big gains if and when they get acquired?

"हर लड़ाई लड़ी जाने से पहले ही जीती जाती है"

इस प्रश्न का उत्तर देने के लिए, मैं आपको उन निवेशकों में से एक के बारे में बताता हूँ जिनसे हमारी स्टार्टअप अनुसंधान परियोजना के दौरान मुलाकात हुई थी।

उद्यम पूंजीपति बनने से पहले यह सज्जन एक उच्च पदस्थ सैन्य अधिकारी थे।

जैसे ही उन्होंने हमारी बातचीत को "नॉरमैंडी के समुद्र तटों पर तूफान" और "लिटिल राउंड टॉप की लड़ाई" के संदर्भ में जोड़ा, उन्होंने अक्सर एक विशेष अभिव्यक्ति का उल्लेख किया:

"हर लड़ाई लड़ी जाने से पहले ही जीती जाती है।"

चूंकि ये शब्द निवेश से संबंधित हैं, उनका मतलब यहां दिया गया है:

Certain actions you take before you make an investment can determine your ultimate success. And one of the most important of these actions is this:

Filtering out investments based on their मूल्याकंन.

मूल्यांकन का महत्व

Valuation is another way of saying “market cap.” It’s the total value of a company. For public companies, we say market cap. For startups, we say valuation.

और यहाँ बात है:

Despite what you read in the press about big-ticket takeovers — like Facebook buying WhatsApp for $19 billion — the sales price for most startups is less than $100 million.

In fact, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers and Thomson Reuters, the majority of acquisitions take place under $50 million.

तो, यदि आपका लक्ष्य किसी ऐसे स्टार्टअप पर अपना 10 गुना पैसा कमाना है जिसे 50 मिलियन डॉलर में खरीदा जा सकता है, तो आप "यह लड़ाई कैसे जीतेंगे"?

Simple: invest at valuations of $5 million or less.

And that brings us back to Substack…

The $585 Million Startup

As you learned above, Substack raised $65 million in 2021.

At the time, its valuation was $585 million. That’s about 100x higher than we generally recommend. But keep in mind — that was during the boom-boom days, before the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates.

Since then, valuations have tumbled. So when the company went out to raise $75 million to $100 million from venture investors on favorable terms last year — TechCrunch reports it was aiming for a $750 million to $1 billion valuation — it couldn’t.

So a few weeks ago, it decided to raise money from the writers on its platform as well as from investors like you — at the “old” valuation of $585 million.

That doesn’t seem like a fair price.

What would be fair? Well, without knowing all the company’s financials, it’s hard to say. But media companies like The New York Times or Vox Media tend to trade at about 1x to 2x revenues. So maybe — maybe? — $20 million to $40 million.

In other words, unless Substack reveals that it’s on pace to do $250 million to $500 million in revenues this year — or plans to get there in short order — I’m compelled to state something plainly to you:

Do not invest in this funding round.

Exceptions To Every Rule

Obviously, there are exceptions to every rule.

For example, if you’re inspired by Substack’s mission — which is commendable and exciting — perhaps you might choose to support it.

And if you’re a writer who’s making his or her living from Substack, that’s एक और reason to support it.

Furthermore, if you have an expert to guide you, you can always consider investing in startups that are more highly valued. After all, many investors considered companies like Facebook or Airbnb “wildly overvalued” when they were worth $10 million or $100 million or $1 billion. Now they’re worth hundreds of billions.

Perhaps Substack is in the same rare air.

If you’re interested in learning more about Substack and its funding round, यहाँ क्लिक करें "

But when you’re just getting started in early-stage investing, limiting your investments to startups that are valued at $5 million or so is a smart strategy to stick with:

This strategy will give you the greatest chances of potentially earning 10x your money.

हम आपकी तलाश कर रहे हैं।

खुश निवेश,

सादर,
मैथ्यू मिल्नर
मैथ्यू मिल्नर
संस्थापक
क्राउडेबिलिटी डॉट कॉम

टिप्पणियाँ

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