The automotive sector has ‘lost’ 7.4mn light
vehicles this year, i.e. a 10 percentage point negative growth hit
even before we factor in losses coming in Q4.
Chip shortage has cost the industry 7.4mn units
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As we embark on Q4, we estimate the ongoing semiconductor
shortage has caused 7.4mn units of lost global light vehicle
production during 2021 so far. We currently forecast 2021 global
light vehicle sales of 80.8mn units (+8.3% y/y growth), which means
the YTD production losses have already hit 2021 volume growth by
10.0 percentage points, excluding those losses yet to be
incurred in Q4.
Q4 interruptions bumping along the bottom
The production disruptions have worsened sequentially as 2021
progressed. The lost units in Q3 (3.4mn) were more than double
(2.4x) those lost in Q1 (1.4mn), and each of the last three
quarters has seen disruptions worsen further. For the tail end of
this year, although we expect Q4 to bring a long-awaited easing of
the losses (in quarterly sequential terms), Q3 is likely to be a
better proxy for disruption levels than Q2.
US OEMs have been hardest hit
Year-to-date, Ford and GM have seen production interruptions
equating to 25% and 21% of their 2020 volumes respectively. Premium
carmakers (e.g. BMW, Volvo, JLR, Daimler) have by contrast got off
relatively lightly (losing between 1% and 7% of prior year volumes.
Note however that OEMs’ deliberate production allocation decisions
towards more profitable models (and therefore positive offsets not
captured in this analysis) might create distortive effects.
Toyota capitulation surprised in September
Toyota made a surprise 300k unit cut to its FY21 production
guidance in early September, challenging the established view that
it had managed its supply chains better than peers. So while many
large OEMs (e.g. VW see below) have seen a fairly stable cadence to
their disruptions, no OEM is fully immune from being the next to
surprise. Our production forecasting team compiled information on
over 300 plant-specific outages across 63 carmakers to arrive at
the above estimates.
Next production outlook revision due 15th
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In our last (16th September) update to our production forecasts,
we made pronounced downgrades to our near-term (2021 and 2022)
production outlooks (by 6.2% and 9.9% respectively) triggered
primarily by a substantial worsening of signals received via our
ongoing supply chain channel checks. We continue to hear negative
noises. We will provide our next forecast update is due on 15th
اکتبر.
