Teadlased loovad toidupuuduse prognoosimiseks ML-mudeleid

Rahvusvaheline teadlaste meeskond on loonud masinõppemudelite komplekti, mis nende sõnul aitab lähitulevikus ennustada ülemaailmset toidupuudust, aidates valitsustel ja rahvusvahelistel agentuuridel mõista, kus nad saavad kõige paremini aidata.

Scientists from the World Food Programme, University of London Mathematics Department and Central European University Department of Network and Data Science, made use of a "unique global dataset" to build machine learning models that can explain up to 81 percent of the variation in insufficient food consumption.

The study claims the machine learning models draw from indirect data sources in areas such as food prices, macro-economic indicators (including GDP), weather, conflict, prevalence of undernourishment, population density, and previous food insecurity trends. The aim is to create near-term forecasts, or "nowcasts."

"We show that the proposed models can nowcast the food security situation in near real-time and propose a method to identify which variables are driving the changes observed in predicted trends — which is key to make predictions serviceable to decision-makers," the research paper avaldati sel nädalal ajakirjas Nature Food ütles.

ML mudelite väljundeid on kasutatud maailmakaardi koostamiseks, mis sisaldab lähiajalisi toiduga kindlustamatuse prognoose nn. Näljakaart.

In 2019, the number of undernourished people was estimated to be 650 million, with 135 million in 55 countries and territories reported to be acutely "food-insecure." Food insecure is defined as lacking consistent access to enough food so you can lead an active, healthy life. Following the global COVID-19 pandemic, these numbers shot up. At least 280 million people were reported to be acutely food insecure in 2020, more than doubling the number from the previous year.

Governments and international organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank measure food security with face-to-face surveys or remote mobile phone surveys. But these can be costly, while accuracy can be a problem. "Food insecurity is a more dynamic and unstable phenomenon than poverty, with a seasonal component related to agricultural production calendars and subject to swift changes when external shocks hit, therefore requiring more frequent and rapid assessments," the paper said.

"This opens the door to food security near-real time nowcasting on a global scale, allowing decision-makers to make more timely and informed decisions on policies and programmes oriented towards the fight against hunger," the authors said.

Teadlased kasutasid ka sekundaarseid andmeid, et ennustada toiduga kindlustamatust pikemas perspektiivis. Põllumajandustootmise, statistiliste põllukultuuride mudelite ja kliimamudelite abil on tehtud prognoose aastani 2030 põllukultuuride tootmise muutuste kohta. Vahepeal on Senegalis kasutatud anonüümseid ja koondatud mobiiltelefoniandmeid, et vaadelda inimeste laiemat liikumist aastaaegade lõikes, ning toiduga kindlustatuse iseloomustamiseks kombineeriti neid põllumajanduslike kalendrite ja sademete rekorditega.

The current study did not use mobile phone data because it is typically obtained through national mobile phone operators. "Therefore, it is not a type of data that is easily scalable, and this is why it was not a suitable data source for our global approach," lead author Elisa Omodei, assistant professor at the Central European University told Register.

Autorid soovitavad, et kui nende mudelid ennustavad toiduga kindlustamatute inimeste levimuse suurenemist, käivitaks Maailma Toiduprogramm näost-näkku või kaugküsitluste kaudu kiired hinnangud ja mobiliseeriks riigi analüütikud, et olukorda paremini mõista.

"The development of these models is motivated by a specific need of WFP to fill a gap that currently exists because of limited resources and inaccessibility, that is, to provide regular information for less reachable places, where food security assessments are carried out only once or twice per year but that nevertheless require a constant flow of information to inform humanitarian operations," the paper said. ®