توقعات السوق الأسبوعية (29-02 فبراير) | فوريكسليف

الفعاليات القادمة:

• الثلاثاء: اليابان
  Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
  الثقة.
• الأربعاء: بنك اليابان
  Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
  Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
  Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
• الخميس: الصين
  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
  Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
  US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• الجمعة:
  Australia PPI, US NFP.

الثلاثاء

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the آخر
تقرير فوجئت بالجانب السلبي مع على حد سواء
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. سيكون ذلك
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

كانت ثقة المستهلك الأمريكي
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
وقفز بشكل مفاجئ في ديسمبر إلى مستوياته الأخيرة منذ يوليو. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see سوق العمل.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in ديسمبر.

الأربعاء

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% قبل,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
حسنا. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% قبل.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

الخميس

من المتوقع أن يصل مؤشر أسعار المستهلك في منطقة اليورو على أساس سنوي إلى 2.8%
vs. 2.9% قبل,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. السوق
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
الصيف. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the العمل
السوق and wage growth but a surprisingly
حار مؤشر أسعار المستهلك
تقرير. وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن خدمات البيع بالتجزئة
المبيعات saw a big plunge in December while
ال مؤشرات مديري المشتريات
تحسنت في يناير. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

ولا تزال مطالبات البطالة الأمريكية واحدة
من أهم الإصدارات كل أسبوع لأنه مؤشر في الوقت المناسب على
حالة سوق العمل. تستمر المطالبات الأولية في الدوران حول الدورة
أدنى مستوياتها، في حين بدأت المطالبات المستمرة بعد الوصول إلى أعلى مستوى جديد في الدورة في الاتجاه
خفض. يرى الإجماع هذا الأسبوع أن المطالبات الأولية تبلغ 210 ألفًا مقابل 214 ألفًا قبل,
بينما لا يوجد إجماع على استمرار المطالبات على الرغم من أن الإصدار السابق شهد
زيادة إلى 1833 ألفًا مقابل 1806 ألفًا سابقًا.

ومن المتوقع صدور مؤشر مديري المشتريات التصنيعي ISM الأمريكي
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 قبل.
في الأسبوع الماضي، في S & P
مؤشر مديري المشتريات التصنيعي العالمي
for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
منذ أكتوبر 2022. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

الجمعة

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in ديسمبر
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
شوهد عند 0.3% مقابل 0.4% سابقًا. The last report had some notable underlying
نقاط الضعف with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

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• المصدر https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-29-02-february-20240128/